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Post by kiyoat on Nov 28, 2017 14:27:31 GMT -6
I realize it is still a little too early for any accurate rankings, but since these advanced metrics polls start early, I thought it would be fun to look anyway: Jeff Sagarin Ratings (compiled by Jim Sukup) www.rpiratings.com/womrate.phpKevin Massey Ratings www.masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratingsThe RPI of the top Summit teams at the end of February was pretty close to these advanced metrics, but RPI had SDSU a little higher (they schedule tough) and had Western Illinois a lot lower. I think they are a much better predictive tool than RPI, but since the selection committee still heavily favors RPI, you have to look at it.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 28, 2017 14:29:10 GMT -6
Really, last year State should have gotten an at-large bid. They always schedule tough, and I think they were the highest RPI team in the WNIT IIRC.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 28, 2017 14:44:04 GMT -6
Sagarin 32 SDSU 64 USD 127 NDSU 159 WIU 176 Denver 264 Omaha 265 ORU 331 Ft Wayne
Massey 36 SDSU 78 USD 136 WIU 162 Omaha 202 ORU 218 NDSU 227 Denver 336 Ft Wayne
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Nov 28, 2017 15:04:18 GMT -6
The Women's Summit should have an at-large every year. I still don't get such a low ranking for WIU.
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larobe
Sophomore Member
Posts: 179
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Post by larobe on Nov 28, 2017 15:46:12 GMT -6
The Women's Summit should have an at-large every year. I still don't get such a low ranking for WIU. I think I read somewhere that hardly ever does a team get into the NCAA tournament with a RPI higher than 65 or so,which makes sense since it's a 64 team tournament.We are just barely there in the Sagarin, still a little too high in the Massey. That's why it's so important to schedule tough in the OOC, or they won't even look at you.They have the auto-bids to get the underdogs into the tournament,thankfully.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 28, 2017 16:25:57 GMT -6
The Women's Summit should have an at-large every year. I still don't get such a low ranking for WIU. I think I read somewhere that hardly ever does a team get into the NCAA tournament with a RPI higher than 65 or so,which makes sense since it's a 64 team tournament.We are just barely there in the Sagarin, still a little too high in the Massey. That's why it's so important to schedule tough in the OOC, or they won't even look at you.They have the auto-bids to get the underdogs into the tournament,thankfully. Actually, I think its more like 40. You have to take 65 and subtract all the low-RPI auto-bids.
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larobe
Sophomore Member
Posts: 179
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Post by larobe on Nov 28, 2017 19:55:07 GMT -6
I think I read somewhere that hardly ever does a team get into the NCAA tournament with a RPI higher than 65 or so,which makes sense since it's a 64 team tournament.We are just barely there in the Sagarin, still a little too high in the Massey. That's why it's so important to schedule tough in the OOC, or they won't even look at you.They have the auto-bids to get the underdogs into the tournament,thankfully. Actually, I think its more like 40. You have to take 65 and subtract all the low-RPI auto-bids. you are right,my bad,wasn't thinking.We are talking all the at-large selections,whom the selection committee selects.Take off the top 25,who most certainly are selected,if they don't win their conferences auto-bid,and there's very few slots open ,maybe 7 or less? (32 auto-bids?)
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 28, 2017 21:21:59 GMT -6
Actually, I think its more like 40. You have to take 65 and subtract all the low-RPI auto-bids. you are right,my bad,wasn't thinking.We are talking all the at-large selections,whom the selection committee selects.Take off the top 25,who most certainly are selected,if they don't win their conferences auto-bid,and there's very few slots open ,maybe 7 or less? (32 auto-bids?) I think it's variable, but the lowest RPI at-large is somewhere around 40 most years IIRC
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 4, 2017 14:44:25 GMT -6
Sagarin32 SDSU 64 USD 127 NDSU 159 WIU 176 Denver 264 Omaha 265 ORU 331 Ft Wayne Massey36 SDSU 78 USD 136 WIU 162 Omaha 202 ORU 218 NDSU 227 Denver 336 Ft Wayne rankings as of Dec 4: Sagarin
31 SDSU 101 USD\/\/\/ 129 WIU ^^^ 194 ORU ^^^ 200 Denver 239 NDSU \/\/\/ 246 Omaha 325 Ft Wayne Massey
33 SDSU 96 USD\/\/\/ 110 WIU^^^ 158 ORU ^^^ 169 Omaha 214 Denver 225 NDSU \/\/ 331 Ft Wayne
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 11, 2017 14:45:00 GMT -6
rankings as of Dec 11 (after CSU Bakersfield): Sagarin
32 SDSU 92 WIU ^^^ 94 USD194 Denver 199 ORU 233 Omaha^ 244 NDSU 304 Ft Wayne^^ Massey
31 SDSU 92 USD95 WIU^ 164 Omaha 168 ORU\/ 207 Denver 251 NDSU \/\/ 319 Ft Wayne^ Our RPI is #164 so I much prefer these numbers.....
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 18, 2017 16:27:29 GMT -6
rankings as of Dec 18 (after Tulsa):
Sagarin 38 SDSU
90 WIU 113 USD\/
166 ORU ^^^ 201 Denver 227 Omaha 258 NDSU\/ 294 Ft Wayne ^
Massey 33 SDSU
98 WIU 114 USD\/
157 ORU ^ 171 Omaha 207 Denver
263 NDSU \/ 317 Ft Wayne
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 18, 2017 16:31:05 GMT -6
Dec 18 RPI...25 SDSU 141 WIU 167 Omaha 170 USD199 NDSU 234 ORU 261 Denver 301 Ft. Wayne
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 4, 2018 8:52:15 GMT -6
rankings as of Dec 4 (after NDSU):
Sagarin 37 SDSU 80 WIU 96 USD ^ 143 ORU ^ 210 Denver 246 Omaha\/ 270 NDSU 309 Ft Wayne
Massey 37 SDSU 90 WIU 96 USD ^ 145 ORU 189 Omaha 208 Denver 268 NDSU 331 Ft Wayne \/
RPI 37 SDSU 125 WIU 126 USD^^^ 184 ORU^^^ 198 Omaha\/\/ 243 Denver^ 267 NDSU^^ 296 Ft. Wayne
It appears that Sagarin and Massey are starting to agree with each other more as the season goes along. Also, the RPI was wildly different from the other two early in the season, but is becoming more normalized with more data.
See the large swings in rankings in the RPI vs the other two. To me that is a testament of the "predictive" quality of Advanced metrics. The RPI is proving the other polls correct as the RPI gathers more data. At the end of the season the RPI starts to become even less accurate IMO because it doesn't weight more recent games higher. Early season record is just as important as late season record in the RPI. So there is a "sweet spot" for the RPI mid-season, essentially.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 5, 2018 9:02:22 GMT -6
rankings as of Dec 5 (after win @ WIU): subtitled: "What a difference a day makes"
Sagarin 39 SDSU 77 USD ^ 99 WIU\/ 131 ORU
198 Denver 240 Omaha 271 NDSU
321 Ft Wayne
Massey 39 SDSU 80 USD ^ 104 WIU\/ 140 ORU
194 Omaha 204 Denver
266 NDSU
334 Ft Wayne
RPI(used RealTimeRPI) 38 SDSU
107 USD ^ 134 WIU
181 Omaha 188 ORU
233 Denver 259 NDSU 304 Ft. Wayne
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Post by usdtator on Jan 5, 2018 10:08:52 GMT -6
WOW!!! What a change over night... Do these polls take into consideration that we whooped the Lady Leathernecks or just got the W?
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