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Post by coyoteglory on Jan 5, 2018 10:38:25 GMT -6
The two IUIPUI replacement games are not going to help our cause though, sadly. But what a leap!
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 5, 2018 11:06:36 GMT -6
WOW!!! What a change over night... Do these polls take into consideration that we whooped the Lady Leathernecks or just got the W? The RPI doesn't use margin of victory, I believe. The other polls typically do, but use some kind of "point of diminishing returns". Meaning that above a certain margin of victory a blowout is a blowout, and you don't get bonus points for keeping starters in against an NAIA school, for example. That's why you see a slightly bigger jump in Massey and Sagarin vs. the RPI for the Yotes after this big win. Also, the RPI doesn't weight recent games heavier, and most advanced metrics do, in some way. That way, improvement through the season is rewarded, and better reflects what is going on right NOW. Let's say, for example, that a team's best player gets injured a couple of weeks before the Big Dance. Which poll do you think would more accurately predict a team's potential in the tournament? One that is weighted towards recent success, or the RPI? |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 5, 2018 11:16:23 GMT -6
BTW, the "official" NCAA RPI list just got updated, and it almost perfectly matched the rankings I saw this morning on RealTimeRPI.com.
USD was 107 instead of 108, so I updated it. I assume this might have been a rounding error, or something.
So It looks like the formula is the same on both sites, FWIW.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 15, 2018 14:37:04 GMT -6
rankings as of Dec 15 (after win vs Fort Wayne):
Sagarin
43 SDSU
72 USD
83 WIU
136 ORU
175 Denver^
268 Omaha
273 NDSU
317 Ft Wayne
Massey
36 SDSU
81 USD
89 WIU
148 ORU
180 Denver^
240 Omaha
275 NDSU
321 Ft Wayne
RPI
39 SDSU
108 USD
115 WIU
192 ORU
212 Denver^
221 Omaha
266 NDSU
294 Ft. Wayne
Things are stabilizing in terms of order.... Sagarin still doesn't like Omaha much, and the RPI continues to punish USD, WIU and ORU for early season losses. I think if the season ended now, the Summit would be getting 3 WNIT teams again. Would be nice to see a deep run in that tournament again by someone. SDSU is poised again for an at-large, but still has some tough games ahead.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 18, 2018 23:44:55 GMT -6
rankings as of Dec 18 (after win @oru):
Sagarin
40 SDSU
70 USD
84 WIU
138 ORU
176 Denver
270 Omaha
274 NDSU
318 Ft Wayne
Massey
35 SDSU
75 USD
87 WIU
157 ORU
181 Denver
241 Omaha
275 NDSU
321 Ft Wayne
RPI
36 SDSU
95 USD
114 WIU
199 ORU
210 Denver
225 Omaha
270 NDSU
295 Ft. Wayne
Not much movement in any of the rankings after Wednesday's games.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 26, 2018 9:52:01 GMT -6
rankings as of Jan 26 (after win @sdsu):
Sagarin
40 SDSU
65 USD
80 WIU
125 ORU
187 Denver
259 Omaha
278 NDSU
325 Ft Wayne
Massey
39 SDSU
63 USD
89 WIU
143 ORU
192 Denver
247 Omaha
280 NDSU
326 Ft Wayne
RPI
35 SDSU
83 USD
110 WIU
180 ORU
201 Denver
239 Omaha
271 NDSU
306 Ft. Wayne
The RPI is garbage. We will just have to keep winning. If we close out the 2nd half of th e season strong (0 or 1 loss), there is no reason we can't be in the conversation for an at-large.
Next game.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 2, 2018 9:55:11 GMT -6
rankings as of Feb 2 (after win Vs. WIU):
Massey
41 SDSU
60 USD
94 WIU
142 ORU
193 Denver
248 Omaha
283 NDSU
331 Ft Wayne
RPI
44 SDSU
69 USD
116 WIU
192 Denver
194 ORU
235 Omaha
266 NDSU
309 Ft. Wayne
I decided to drop Sagarin and keep Massey. They are pretty similar, and Massey has a better match-up tool.
I think WIU is better than their RPI and Sagarin Ratings, too. Last year Massey was the rating system that had WIU the highest, on route to their championship.
Looks like we are finally making a dent in the RPI (after an 11-game win streak) LOL. of course, there is now a strength-of-schedule glass ceiling for our ratings. We can only climb so high, and we won't qualify for an at-large (Thanks again, IUPUI). Even the Jacks' possibility of an at-large is questionable at this point, and I see another loss or two in their future.
Oh, well. Beat State. Win the conference. Win the Tournament. Lots to play for in every game. Great season so far!
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 5, 2018 9:42:57 GMT -6
rankings as of Feb 5 (after win Vs. NDSU): Massey43 SDSU
58 USD84 WIU 160 ORU 193 Denver 251 Omaha 286 NDSU 335 Ft Wayne RPI41 SDSU
71 USD104 WIU 195 Denver 205 ORU 233 Omaha 268 NDSU 318 Ft. Wayne gotta love seeing your ranking drop after a win (in the RPI) because of the weakness of opponent. We increased our rank in Massey. I'm assuming our next two games will give the same result. If we beat Fort Wayne and Omaha, our RPI will just continue to slide backwards...  |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 8, 2018 15:21:47 GMT -6
rankings as of Feb 8 (after win @ft Wayne):
Massey
44 SDSU
57 USD
84 WIU
162 ORU
188 Denver
249 Omaha
291 NDSU
334 Ft Wayne
RPI
40 SDSU
76 USD
107 WIU
195 Denver
205 ORU
231 Omaha
265 NDSU
316 Ft. Wayne
Yup. Lost 5 points in the RPI after beating IPFW, and Massey barely moves.
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Post by Yotes on Feb 8, 2018 17:41:07 GMT -6
Playing a team in the 300s is not got for your SOS.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Feb 8, 2018 18:45:08 GMT -6
Just out of curiosity I wonder if it can be calculated what a teams RPI would be if they played U-Conn every game and lost every game by an average of 50 points per game.
No rating system that does not take into consideration margin of victory should ever punish a team for a win or reward them with a loss. A grade school team could play a tough schedule against college teams but if they never win any of them what good does it do. I will always say and believe in this quote kind of like a bible sermon "it's not the schedule that determines the strength of a team but how you play the schedule given that determines team strength". The SDSU women are getting close to going 4 straight years without winning the Summit League. Their strength of schedule has obviously not helped them win their league.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 12, 2018 8:48:10 GMT -6
rankings as of Feb 12 (after win vs Doane):
Massey
39 SDSU
55 USD
86 WIU
155 ORU
184 Denver
252 Omaha
294 NDSU
335 Ft Wayne
RPI
37 SDSU
72 USD
105 WIU
181 Denver
194 ORU
238 Omaha
282 NDSU
320 Ft. Wayne
We actually moved up slightly in both ratings after beating Doane! I think the RPI doesn't consider non-D-1 teams. Maybe Massey doesn't either.
Looks like SDSU is hitting a glass ceiling (no sexism intended) as far as ratings. Beating WIU and USD might be the only thing that would pull them higher than 39/40, and being a solid at-large. Could happen, with the way they are playing, but I'll bet on the Yotes at home.
Interesting that the order of teams seems to have solidified. Aside from the 1 vs 2 game to end the season, I just don't see the order of teams changing much for seeding. I wonder how it compares to the preseason poll?......
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Feb 12, 2018 10:11:51 GMT -6
rankings as of Feb 12 (after win vs Doane): Massey39 SDSU
55 USD86 WIU 155 ORU 184 Denver 252 Omaha 294 NDSU 335 Ft Wayne RPI39 SDSU
74 USD107 WIU 181 Denver 196 ORU 229 Omaha 281 NDSU 315 Ft. Wayne We actually moved up slightly in both ratings after beating Doane! I think the RPI doesn't consider non-D-1 teams. Maybe Massey doesn't either. Looks like SDSU is hitting a glass ceiling (no sexism intended) as far as ratings. Beating WIU and USD might be the only thing that would pull them higher than 39/40, and being a solid at-large. Could happen, with the way they are playing, but I'll bet on the Yotes at home. Interesting that the order of teams seems to have solidified. Aside from the 1 vs 2 game to end the season, I just don't see the order of teams changing much for seeding. I wonder how it compares to the preseason poll?...... I think you looked in the wrong column. 37 and 72 respectively www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 12, 2018 11:08:45 GMT -6
Ha! The poll updated after I posted it. I guess I jumped the gun. Good catch; I'll fix it. |
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 12, 2018 11:22:17 GMT -6
I'd have that RPI blown up on a poster board in the locker room every day and be hammering the lack of respect card hard. Nobody thinks you're even half the team the Jacks are.
Every day.
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