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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 17, 2018 14:46:40 GMT -6
Augie isn't the best D2 right now and not even in the top 20. They are 3-3. They were blown out by Sioux Falls College.
They could easily run with the bottom half of the MVFC. The GAM has them going 2-1 against YSU, WIU and INS. The Doggies are a rubber stamp of those teams as far as their statistical profile goes. They are about as successful this year in D2 as those teams are in D1. A regular 500 season for the Dogs is achievable with an occasional break-out. I believe in the not too distant past they were at the top of D2. Everyone has always said the top of D2 can compete in FCS. Lot of overlap between the divisions. Maybe even as much as FCS overlaps FBS. This year a MVFC Augie would be 2-8-1. They are within a few points of half the league. Like a lot of teams they can score but they allow too many points by opponents. .98 for everyone they score. Not the signature of a winning team but a lot of close, competitive games. I believe they would have 5 years to ramp up as many of the 28 scholies they could get to be at 64. They already have 36. Travel costs into the Patriot would be significant making the alternative of full FCS scholarship football more competitive in cost no matter which way they go. Are you joking here? They would get blasted in the MVFC. Everyone? Not everyone. Actually, the only one I can think of that believes that is Coyote Fan.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 17, 2018 15:27:53 GMT -6
I think Augie could compete. They could have won a couple games in the Valley this year even with the 3-3 D2 record. Give them the extra scolies and they have the depth to win a few. Give them a couple good recruiting years and they might suprise a lot of people.
Absolutely there is an overlap. I’m not sure how many D2s have beaten FCS squads but their is some every year, but Augie would be FCS too. USD certainly showed the overlap at KSU. There’s always overlap.
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Post by Yotes on Oct 17, 2018 16:47:58 GMT -6
I think Augie could compete. They could have won a couple games in the Valley this year even with the 3-3 D2 record. Give them the extra scolies and they have the depth to win a few. Give them a couple good recruiting years and they might suprise a lot of people. Absolutely there is an overlap. I’m not sure how many D2s have beaten FCS squads but their is some every year, but Augie would be FCS too. USD certainly showed the overlap at KSU. There’s always overlap. D2 wins over D1 schools this year: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA_Division_II_football_season#Division_II_team_wins_over_FCS_teamsYou've got UAPB (horrible SWAC team that state put 90 on) and Valparaiso (Pioneer team). There is an ocean between D2 and FCS, and more distance yet to any MVFC team.
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 17, 2018 18:12:46 GMT -6
Al, if I give you the stats of my Jr. High football team can you run them through your model and tell me how many Valley games we would win?
Point being, all stats are not created equal. You can't take USD's stats and tell me how we would do in the Big 10, just like you can't take Augie's NSIC stats and tell me how they would do in the Valley.
USD was in a much better position than Augie when we went to D1 and we all saw how our entry into the MVFC went. I will boldly predict Augie would not only not win a game, they would be blown out in every game.
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dave
Sophomore Member
Posts: 112
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Post by dave on Oct 17, 2018 19:28:32 GMT -6
Augie would not win a game in the MVFC period! Also jbb, stop trolling UND fans, there will never be a non schollarship Summit League Football Conference and UND is not dropping down to non scholarship football. As far as Augie's DII national championship in men's basketball it's my understanding that a few of their key players on that team had DI scholarship offers but chose to play down a level, it happens all the time in collegiate athletics. If Augie moves up they lose the advantage of being the DII alternative where an athlete can play down a level and be the BMOC. Don't get me started on their DII championship in baseball, DI baseball is a whole nother animal in the south and along the coasts where the powerhouse programs reside, good luck competing at the DI level.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 17, 2018 20:18:01 GMT -6
The thing about the GAM is the fact it can make very reliable adjustments for strength of schedule, SOS, including between divisions. No other handicapper in the country had USD a 6 point underdog against KSU and said KSU couldn't cover the spread. Downtown they were giving USD 22.5 prior to the game.
Fact is without adjustment Augie looks like a 500 team in the MVFC this week. They can move the football, they just can't stop the other team from moving it too. They would be better suited for the BSC but they can survive in the MVFC just like everybody else. Maybe the BSC gets Augie and we get UNC, or Augie joins the BSC and becomes UNC travel partner. I hope not, we need them in the Summit to protect the auto bid.
I'm not talking about Augie coming in at championship level, just joining. Their chances are better in Basketball and they will be a welcome addition in baseball, a sport the Summit needs to protect the basketball auto bid.
In football I think a 2 win season is a reasonable goal to start. Then try for 4 or 5. You don't have to be champion to have personal success and pride in your game.
Thanks for the information on the FCS/D2 competition. It was a little surprising that the D2 wins were so few. As a student of D2 ball once I can say they have done much better in the past. Not surprised to see Valpo in there though. They have played a lot of Valley teams. First FCS game at NDSU. They couldn't compete.
It won't be easy for Augie. They will be in FCS and have the same scholarships though. They may be underfunded like WIU, IND and UND but win or lose there is no reason they can't play ball in the MVFC if they can afford it.
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Post by elcoyote on Oct 17, 2018 21:38:49 GMT -6
Augie would not win a game in the MVFC period! Also jbb, stop trolling UND fans, there will never be a non schollarship Summit League Football Conference and UND is not dropping down to non scholarship football. As far as Augie's DII national championship in men's basketball it's my understanding that a few of their key players on that team had DI scholarship offers but chose to play down a level, it happens all the time in collegiate athletics. If Augie moves up they lose the advantage of being the DII alternative where an athlete can play down a level and be the BMOC. Don't get me started on their DII championship in baseball, DI baseball is a whole nother animal in the south and along the coasts where the powerhouse programs reside, good luck competing at the DI level. Dave, you say that Augie's D2 championship team couldn't compete with teams in the South and along the coasts, but could the current Summit League teams? I don't see any of them even remotely sniffing as much as a super regional. Not a knock against them, there are just too many obstacles to overcome trying to play baseball on the northern Great Plains in March and April. How do you think Augie would compete in baseball with teams like the Jacks and Bison in baseball if they were to play?
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dave
Sophomore Member
Posts: 112
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Post by dave on Oct 17, 2018 22:07:46 GMT -6
Augie would not win a game in the MVFC period! Also jbb, stop trolling UND fans, there will never be a non schollarship Summit League Football Conference and UND is not dropping down to non scholarship football. As far as Augie's DII national championship in men's basketball it's my understanding that a few of their key players on that team had DI scholarship offers but chose to play down a level, it happens all the time in collegiate athletics. If Augie moves up they lose the advantage of being the DII alternative where an athlete can play down a level and be the BMOC. Don't get me started on their DII championship in baseball, DI baseball is a whole nother animal in the south and along the coasts where the powerhouse programs reside, good luck competing at the DI level. Dave, you say that Augie's D2 championship team couldn't compete with teams in the South and along the coasts, but could the current Summit League teams? I don't see any of them even remotely sniffing as much as a super regional. Not a knock against them, there are just too many obstacles to overcome trying to play baseball on the northern Great Plains in March and April. How do you think Augie would compete in baseball with teams like the Jacks and Bison in baseball if they were to play? Elcoyote I completely agree with your post, unfortunately for schools in the north success in baseball will be hard to come by with our horrible spring weather. It's too bad, I'm not anti college baseball, it's just the facts. Now if the NCAA moved baseball to the summertime that would be a game changer for the northern schools, however that will never happen. Yes I think Augie could compete with SDSU/NDSU but as long as Oral Roberts is in the league they will be playing for second place in a sport of minor importance in our region, which is sad because I'd really like to see DI college baseball succeed in this region.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2018 4:23:39 GMT -6
The Summit may not be the nations best baseball conference but it keeps the auto bid intact. Without it, or football of some kind, Summit teams may all be playing basketball with no NCAA auto bid.
Non scholarship makes sense for the Summit and the underfunded teams in the league. Augie could play and beat some of those teams now, especially with full FCS scholarships. UND is the best among the glorified D2s but with only a couple guys and no depth it’s likely they end up where they usually do. In the mean time it’s exciting and fun to watch it unfold.
Augie would start out fast in the old NCC too but falter when they ran into the top teams. They did beat a D2 UND at home in their last game at Memorial stadium before moving to the Alarius. Don’t forget Sioux Falls College also gave D1 UND 2 beat downs, winning one. Look what SDSU has done since naia Wisconsin lacrosse boat raced them. There is more than meets the eye to some teams and less to others.
Non scholarship is a long shot but it is a solution. To work it would need a school like UND to step up. I agree it’s not likely. As someone else said it’s their pride. They would crash and burn first. Ask women’s hockey, one of the foundation pillars of their athletic department.
The auto bid the Summit is priveleged to has provide a lot of opportunity. In women’s softball NDSU, riding the arm of some great pitching, has had some wonderful success in the NCAA tournament. The league has had volleyball success too.You don’t have to be national champions to enjoy the sport and take pride in your game. Of course the center piece is the Summit tournament in Sioux Falls.
It might be pride keeping some from accepting Augie. The points raised against their membership have trouble rising above the level of their competitiveness. There is no reason to believe Augie couldn’t be as successful as any other team at the top or bottom of the Summit or MVFC. They will have the same number of scholies.
Ps. They play the college World Series in Omaha don’t they?
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2018 5:14:51 GMT -6
This is why Augie moves. If they don’t the anchor is football
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2018 5:32:31 GMT -6
This is comes from an insightful UND fan. It sounds familiar in a lot of ways:
Something will solve Augies football problem. It could be non scholarship, the Summit league or MVFC. the one involving the least amount of change is probably the most likely. Simply reorganizing the MVFC looks like it could render out.
It amounts to a two division league.
MVFC:
Summit Division: USD, AUGIE, SDSU, UND, NDSU, WIU
Legacy Division: IND, ILS, UNI, SIU, MSU, YSU
Very likely. No non-scholarship league to form, no outlandish travel, appeases the eastern schools, preserves the Summit.
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Post by Yotes on Oct 18, 2018 6:55:29 GMT -6
The thing about the GAM is the fact it can make very reliable adjustments for strength of schedule, SOS, including between divisions. Please explain, specifically when putting lower division against FCS.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2018 7:59:51 GMT -6
As a handicapper some cross divisional comparisons are not worth making, some are.
The game revolves around the efficiency of the offensive and defensive units to score or keep their opponents from scoring.
For each critical offensive/defensive statistic caps are applied assuring, within the statistical profile of the game, the evaluation is made comparing the highest possible performance by the higher ranked team vs. the lowest possible performance against the lower ranked team.
It's proven to be a very reliable method as we saw in the KSU handicap.
Augie could easily go "ofer" in the MVFC but they can win 2 and 3 others could be close.
Ps. It's worth adding that I look forward to Augie playing in the MVFC. There will be some hugely "miss-priced" games and some exciting upsets. It will save us all a trip to timbuktue as well, preserve the league and foster good sportsmanship. (I just added the sportsman part so I had a nice group of 3 reasons. It would be nice though)
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2018 8:17:19 GMT -6
I think Augie has a big impact on attendance for the Sioux Falls area including both Vermillion and Brookings metros. This kind of competition is going to increase interest and visibility and that's going to make a much bigger Sioux Falls pie for all of you to feast on.
One nice thing about this Sanford gift. I have heard nothing of the kind of strings attached like attached to the ralph?
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 18, 2018 8:55:39 GMT -6
I think Augie could compete. They could have won a couple games in the Valley this year even with the 3-3 D2 record. Give them the extra scolies and they have the depth to win a few. Give them a couple good recruiting years and they might suprise a lot of people. Absolutely there is an overlap. I’m not sure how many D2s have beaten FCS squads but their is some every year, but Augie would be FCS too. USD certainly showed the overlap at KSU. There’s always overlap. D2 wins over D1 schools this year: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NCAA_Division_II_football_season#Division_II_team_wins_over_FCS_teamsYou've got UAPB (horrible SWAC team that state put 90 on) and Valparaiso (Pioneer team). There is an ocean between D2 and FCS, and more distance yet to any MVFC team. That link forgets at least one game: UNA was beaten by a D2 a week or two ago. On the other hand, early in the season they beat Southern Utah. This is what to expect in the MVFC. There are weaker teams in the league they have never played.
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