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Post by kiyoat on Sept 21, 2018 9:51:09 GMT -6
So that brings up another interesting scenario - Rather than looking at top D-II programs in the region, consider the possibility of FBS programs that are considering a move back to FCS. Even though some might consider them poor choices because they "failed" at FBS, they may just be excellent FCS schools. The financial and competitive demands of FBS are tremendous.
Recent examples include Idaho and UAB moving back. New Mexico State is an FBS independent, and could make the move. There are a number of "Group-of-five" schools that have considered the move.
Many of the MAC schools are in financially dire straits, including Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Kent State, Ball State, Bowling Green, etc. Northern Illinois and Ball State are right in the Summit/MVFC region, and would help stabilize our East flank.
Food for thought.
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 21, 2018 10:24:28 GMT -6
If something like a consolidation with the MAC were to happen it would be great. I don’t expect any mass exodus though. Idaho’s problem was scheduling as an independent.
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 21, 2018 10:38:03 GMT -6
I was posting on the UND message board about expansion, and did some looking into the NCAA "multi-sport conference" requirements, and basically talked myself into agreeing with Yote53 about the Big Sky.
Sponsoring football absolves a conference from having to sponsor 3 men's TEAM sports. Right now the Summit is hanging by a thread there, with 9 MBB teams (7 required), 6 Baseball, 6 Men's soccer. None of the Dakota 4 have men's soccer, and neither does the Big Sky. UND and USD have dropped Baseball, and the Big Sky doesn't sponsor that either. They don't have to. They have football.
Basically the sponsored sports of the Dakota 4 and the Big Sky match almost perfectly. And I had to remind myself that the Big Sky has offered all 4 of the Dakota schools separately in the past. To them we are an asset. To the Horizon and MVC, we are a burden (perception).
Also, The Big Sky has 11 full members, all with natural travel partners other than UNC. Add the Dakota 4 and Denver... Presto. 16-team conference with two divisions and natural travel partners.
Let ORU rejoin a southern conference or the WAC. Let Omaha try to get into the MVC or Horizon. Let PFW join the Horizon. Let WIU ease their financials and go to the OVC. The only downside might be travel cost, and losing the SLT in SF. Maybe they could rotate with Boise.
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 21, 2018 10:41:29 GMT -6
Or switch Denver with Omaha if they feel they are too good for the Big Sky (likely). They would rather be in the WCC, but were denied.
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Post by GoYotes on Sept 21, 2018 10:49:20 GMT -6
Merging into one mega conference results in the loss of one autobid to the Dance. Better to keep 2 - 8 team conferences with a scheduling agreement between the two conferences. Some conferences are looking at scheduling agreements where the top teams in each conference play each other later in the basketball season in an attempt to give them the opportunity for more quality wins and potential better seeding in the Dance.
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 21, 2018 11:43:13 GMT -6
Where would we get that 6th football school?
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 23, 2018 3:48:04 GMT -6
There may simply be too many conferences. Summit football in any form probably kills the MVFC.
There already is a scheduling agreement between a couple of Dakota schools and the BSC. Maybe that will lead the way to some kind of consolidation?
Take out the hockey money and UNDs remaining athletic budget leaves D2 program dollars. Essentially they are running a D2 athletic program with a few frills and D1 hockey. in our part of the country hockey is soaking up the D1 budgets.
The decades long mediocre football performance is taking its toll at UND. The few fans that still bother to post about football are completely discouraged. It’s a school in financial bind of its own making. The move to the MVFC is going to add another bottom feeder. Finances may force UNDs hand once again. I could see them drop the sport or move back down.
The Summit may have stumbled into stability because there is simply no place for any of its remaining members to go.
A good competitive league:
Colorado State Kansas Iowa State NDSU SDSU Minnesota Rutgers
Never going to happen. Just because we want realignment certainly doesn’t compel realignment or even create opportunities to switch conference alignments. To even move up we had to start our own conference.
one thing that would force realignment is of course the budgets. Nothing moves until the money speaks. What would motivate a big realignment?
in the past it has been a desire to grow. Maybe in the future it would be a desire to shrink? College sports aren’t aligned very well considering budgets and geography.
I have no idea why any of the regional D2 D1 hockey schools would move into the Summit. I know the athletic budgets of the Dakota Big 3 grew but did the general revenues generated by sports keep pace? Were there any other benefits to the schools making it desirable? It’s more likely those schools see UNDs problems. Augie doesn’t have those constraints. Football is their yolk to bear in the D1 consideration.
The Summit will be lucky if Augie moves. It’s a clear cut, non fanciful solution to its survival.
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 23, 2018 8:19:30 GMT -6
This is what I am talking about regarding UND and non scholarship. From their board this morning:
The downsizing could continue even to non-scholarship. This realization this morning is certainly true:
This is more like it
If the University supports it these are some practical reasons to move up:
1: Your fans base demands it and is large enough to support it 2: Your Athletic Department is ready to run at a true D1 level 3: Your budgets are large enough to be competitive 4: Demonstrated or pledged corporate support 5: Facilities are adequate to support all programs at a D1 level. 6: Conference invitation
Regarding FBS I think NDSU has 1 and 2 firmly in place, is working on 5 with an ongoing viable plan and may have made substantial progress on 4 behind the scenes to support 3. Nothing on 6 as you know. SDSU & UNI probably the same. UND and USD are close but I'm not sure of anyone else.
That list goes for the regional D2s wanting to move up. They have #6, probably #2 as well because of hockey. #1 is true for Augie. #4 & #3 may be working out right now for Augie and #5 is true to one degree or another for the larger D2s with hockey and/or football.
I have no idea what would motivate a regional reshuffling of the Big Sky, MVFC and Summit.
The Big Sky is fine and has no motivation that I can see.
The MVFC motivation would be to move to FBS with the capable members leaving others behind in the Summit. The FBS motivation is the higher guarantees, greater corporate involvement and additional revenue streams from media.
The Summit league of course is trying desperately to find a safe and secure niche. It's best bet seems to be welcoming ambitious D2
It's kind of interesting the MVFC is aligned with the Summit. The welfare of their members is tied to the Summits success. In some ways the NCHC has an ancillary interest in the Summit just as the MVFC does. The interest of those conferences, especially the NCHC, could produce some twists.
I'm not sure any of it happens. A problem in the Summit membership does not necessarily represent an emergency to anyone else. So far we aren't valuable enough markets to be sought out by anyone. If the Summit collapses we will probably play without an auto-bid. I think the NCAA would be flexible on that but at some point may have to pull the plug.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 15, 2018 5:56:25 GMT -6
Non scholarship football for the Summit is an idea whose time may be coming. As the hockey team falters in Grand Forks the fans are tearing themselves apart. The issue: the hockey program is sucking up all the money and is having trouble competing as the big schools start to take the niche sport over. UND hockey is getting overwhelmed and crowds are thinning.
That’s more truth than I have ever seen from that group. That post gives you insight on why Mankato, SCSU and Duluth stayed D2 and why UNO dropped football. Hockey and a full D1 slate is unaffordable for them and will in time destroy their competitiveness in all sports. Pride may keep them from dropping football but the big compromise may be developing a non scholarship Summit football league with like minded participants.
Their discussion is quite revealing and mirrors in many ways what I have been saying.
I think a non scholarship Summit football league is a real possibility and, if it happens, some of the participants may surprise us. It’s up to Augie.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 15, 2018 10:43:33 GMT -6
Just for fun I ran Augie against the MVFC and UND in the GAM. Their record this week, with proper adjustment, would be 2-8-1.
D2 stats look a little different than FCS. They seem to produce more yards and more points than a lot of FCS Valley teams. They allow more yards too, but a lessor amount which keeps them competitive even after proper adjustment. Not too bad for a D2 roster, about the same as the old NCC a lot of the time.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 17, 2018 4:18:51 GMT -6
Augie will decide by the end of the fiscal year.
the Summit needs a team.
Its very unlikely there is going to be any major reorganization of the MVFC/BSC any time soon without a huge catalyst like forming a new conference with FBS football.
Chances appear to be near zero of any FBS squad looking to move down.
none of the D2s in the region except Augie appear interested.
with football the Summits sports requirements are eased up.
3 options with Augie football:
1) drop it 2). Play non scholarship, possibly in a new Summit non scholarship league 3). Join the MVFC
i think if they move it will be to the Summit and MVFC scholarship football.
If if they don’t move football will be the anchor.
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 17, 2018 6:52:49 GMT -6
You’re smoking crack if you think the MVFC would admit Augie. Not only are they an inferior FB program, but it would give the Summit a six-team majority, which wouldn’t sit well with the MVC members.
I would not be surprised if the Summit accepts them, though. Some fans might not like it, but the University presidents would vote for it, IMHO. Pioneer League for FB is the odds-on favorite, with dropping it a close second.
The only plus of Augie trying to field a scholarship FCS team would be that we could break off of the MVFC with 6 teams and form Summit football. That would be interesting, but i'd be more comfortable with at least 8 teams, since Augie could implode financially.
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 17, 2018 7:07:25 GMT -6
Augie will decide by the end of the fiscal year. the Summit needs a team. Its very unlikely there is going to be any major reorganization of the MVFC/BSC any time soon without a huge catalyst like forming a new conference with FBS football. Chances appear to be near zero of any FBS squad looking to move down. none of the D2s in the region except Augie appear interested. with football the Summits sports requirements are eased up. 3 options with Augie football: 1) drop it 2). Play non scholarship, possibly in a new Summit non scholarship league 3). Join the MVFC i think if they move it will be to the Summit and MVFC scholarship football. If if they don’t move football will be the anchor. I think the moving part in this puzzle is football. I know some football alum that support the athletic department generously and have expressed concern if the program is compromised in any way. By that I mean if they drop the support or go non-scholly, these guys aren’t going to be happy and not only does the University risk losing their financial support but also general support. I get why The Summit would take them. But I just can’t see the MVFC taking Augie in football. I have absolutely nothing to base that argument on other than my gut feel and assessing what Augustana brings to the football table. If I’m even close to being correct then their only two options are dropping the sport or going non-scholly. That to me is the risk they face. Perhaps the AD before the one they have now assessed it the same way and was moved out quietly to fully explore going to The Summit and devaluing the football program. I understand that the Sanford organization will be a key player in all this, and quite honestly their financial support has been extremely generous to USD, SDSU, and NDSU, but although they may have leverage with The Summit League, I don’t think the MVFC would be influenced. Putting individual and smaller business financial support at risk doesn’t seem like a good plan moving forward. I will say this though. If the MVFC would take Augustana ( and I see no way they would ) then take your loose change and bet Augues coming. I just don’t see a scenario play out where this happens without creating an uproar.
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 17, 2018 7:57:47 GMT -6
I don't ever see Augie getting an invite into the MVFC. The Valley side of the conference would not go for that, which provides just enough cover for the Dakota schools to remain publicly silent about it while privately opposing it as well. You all think that NDSU would be for adding Augie for football? You're crazy. You all ever see NDSU giving up the MVFC for a Summit Football League with Augie? You're crazy.
I also think Augie could get a Summit invite, but they have a football problem. I see non-scholarship football or dropping football as being a non-starter with a large donor base to the athletic dept.
I will say this, if Augie does go to the non-scholarship Pioneer League I hope USD never schedules them. Where is the upside of scheduling the non-scholarship school in Sioux Falls and giving them any sort of legitimacy in FCS football? I would expect that SDSU, NDSU, and UND would avoid scheduling them too. Scheduling Drake is fine, they are out-of-state, scheduling Augie would be a mistake. Of course, the way these things go I can see USD getting sucked into some sort of Sanford Bowl against Augie at Howard Wood. Ugh.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 17, 2018 14:17:01 GMT -6
Augie isn't the best D2 right now and not even in the top 20. They are 3-3. They were blown out by Sioux Falls College.
They could easily run with the bottom half of the MVFC. The GAM has them going 2-1 against YSU, WIU and INS. The Doggies are a rubber stamp of those teams as far as their statistical profile goes. They are about as successful this year in D2 as those teams are in D1. A regular 500 season for the Dogs is achievable with an occasional break-out.
I believe in the not too distant past they were at the top of D2. Everyone has always said the top of D2 can compete in FCS. Lot of overlap between the divisions. Maybe even as much as FCS overlaps FBS.
This year a MVFC Augie would be 2-8-1. They are within a few points of half the league. Like a lot of teams they can score but they allow too many points by opponents. .98 for every one they score. Not the signature of a winning team but a lot of close, competitive games.
I believe they would have 5 years to ramp up as many of the 28 scholies they could get to be at 64. They already have 36.
Travel costs into the Patriot would be significant making the alternative of full FCS scholarship football more competitive in cost no matter which way they go.
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