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Post by aldewitt on Dec 4, 2017 10:46:57 GMT -6
PREDICTED WINNER: SDSU Jackrabbits
SPREAD: SDSU -5
OVER/UNDER: 51
MYTHICAL SCORE: SDSU 28 New Hampshire 23
SUGGESTED: Take the Jacks to win and cover. Take the over. I think the Wildcats can score just enough and the Jacks can put up more the 28 to put the total over the mythical 51.
The Wildcats have relied on the pass much like the Jacks. They have identical passing games. The Jacks field a stronger running team so if New Hampshire can't slow them down The Jacks may overwhelm with their offense, much like they did against the Bison. Their edge in that game was turnovers, an intangible. Here it's the running attack, a more fundamental and objective element of the game.
On the other side of the ball New Hampshire simply gives up too many yards through the air. There is a slight edge in favor of the Jacks in pass defense. Together with the advantage on offense you have the five point spread.
Both teams like to control the ball and the clock but the 38% third down conversion average for the Wildcats might just be the modifier tilting this thing in favor of the Jackrabbits.
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Dec 4, 2017 12:26:28 GMT -6
New Hampshire was close to not making the playoffs. I would guess SDSU will rout them since its at the Dyke.
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 7, 2017 13:51:12 GMT -6
I agee the rought factor is in favor of the Jacks.
Another thing about New Hampshire, they just don't score a lot of points. they average 22/game and have only scored 295. Another bad sign is the Wildcats allowed 246 points. As far as turning yards into points New Hampshire and a couple other teams including Wofford just are not as efficient. Overall, New Hampshire could be playing at a little lower level. Thats some of the factors making this an interesting game.
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Post by sdyotefan on Dec 7, 2017 14:37:57 GMT -6
New Hampshire's QB missed half of the last playoff game with a concussion and they're not sure if he can play until tomorrow. If he doesn't play state should roll for sure.
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 9, 2017 15:36:33 GMT -6
Looks like State is rolling
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Post by yoteforever on Dec 9, 2017 16:06:36 GMT -6
New Hampshire is awful. Not taking anything away from SDSU but this team is terrible. If they were in the Valley my guess is the only team they could beat for sure would be Indiana State. There are at minimum 7 teams better than UNH.
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 9, 2017 17:08:56 GMT -6
Big discussion on 1660 radio today about that. the answer for them was this is the best competition in the FCS. SDSU is on a roll. The JMU game is going to be a good one.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 9, 2017 17:59:34 GMT -6
When it comes to predicting outcomes based on formulas it is much easier to do so when comparing teams that play the same schedules. It is just impossible to know what kind of stats a particular team will put up if they played a different schedule. Streveler's run for the Payton Award is a perfect example. What he did vs what the Sam Houston QB did are against totally different competition. That is why Streveler deserves to win the award.
Whatever conference New Hampshire plays in their conference record vs the Valley should be considered when making projections. SDSU being a five point favorite never felt accurate. I would have almost mortgaged the house (and than pulled back at the last minute) that the Jacks would have covered that, especially considering they are a completely different team pre and post the regular season UNI game.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 9, 2017 18:03:21 GMT -6
Big discussion on 1660 radio today about that. the answer for them was this is the best competition in the FCS. SDSU is on a roll. The JMU game is going to be a good one. If I had to put a spread on the JMU game vs SDSU I would put it at JMU -2.5 but mainly just because of experience. Assuming Sam Houston wins tonight I would put their spread against the Bison at NDSU -14.5. If anyone came out and put SDSU as a 3 point favorite I would have no problem with that. |
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Post by usdcoyote on Dec 9, 2017 18:08:55 GMT -6
Let's not forget that we forced a bunch of turnovers in the first game to beat a non valley team and then lost in the second round to a non valley team. New Hampshire won two games in the playoffs, I don't know if they are as bad as people are acting. I can't imagine us and western Illinois were playing the only good non valley teams. I know a lot of people wanted to make fun of State fans earlier in the year for thinking they were title contenders, but obviously they are. That was impressive what they did to NH.
What was the attendance anyway?
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Post by Yotes on Dec 9, 2017 18:15:44 GMT -6
Attendance was 5583. I haven't seen any footage to see how that looked, but do keep in mind that in the playoffs your real attendance comes out. No grossly inflated numbers here (unless you want to give the NCAA 25% of that).
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 9, 2017 20:34:35 GMT -6
NH deserved to be a 5 point underdog. SDSU won by far more and that often happens when the favorite starts to roll. When you see a spread you disagree with you can make money.
Taking SDSU by 5 taking them to cover and go over was the way to look at that one.
The stadium looked empty. It was 28 degrees.
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 9, 2017 20:46:21 GMT -6
Kennesaw State is a good example of the quality of a teams stats. They computed to be a favorite at SHSU and a plausible narrative supported it but they aren’t hanging at all tonight. Kennesaw State has a comparable offense and statistically superior defense but SHSU is shutting them down while running up the score. That call is in the garbage and the fans selecting SHSU had a better grasp of it than the spreadsheets. That’s what makes it a game and that’s why the research continues.
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Post by gorabbits on Dec 9, 2017 21:04:24 GMT -6
Someone earlier in this thread asked in effect what conference New Hampshire is in. They are in the Colonial Conference, which is widely recognized as the 2nd best conference in FCS football behind only the MVFC. They have been in the playoffs for 14 years in a row, the longest run of any team in FCS.
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obc
Senior Member
Posts: 781
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Post by obc on Dec 9, 2017 21:14:15 GMT -6
Someone earlier in this thread asked in effect what conference New Hampshire is in. They are in the Colonial Conference, which is widely recognized as the 2nd best conference in FCS football behind only the MVFC. They have been in the playoffs for 14 years in a row, the longest run of any team in FCS. Definitely made them look slow. |
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