|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 14, 2018 15:04:21 GMT -6
I thought all you SDSU fans would appreciate the chance to follow the Jacks:
After two weeks of play we have the following outcome and outlook for the SDSU season:
SEASON RECORD: 1 - 0 PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME: 8 - 2
Actual:
C Sept 1: SDSU @ ISU cancelled W Sept 8: MSU @ SDSU predicted NA actual: Mont St 14 SDSU 43
Predicted:
This Week W Sept 15: Pine Bluff @ SDSU predicted PB 28 SDSU 31 actual:
Pine Bluff is a passing team and may be able to stay with SDSU at least for a while. I expect SDSU to cover that. The over and under is another story. Im taking over. It's going to take a great day on SDSUs part and some points from PB but I think it can happen.
Up-Coming L Sept 29: NDSU @ SDSU predicted NDSU 32 SDSU 25 actual: W Oct 6: ISUb @ SDSU predicted ISUb 21 SDSU 30 actual: W Oct 13: YSU @ SDSU predicted YSU 17 SDSU 41 actual: W Oct 20: SDSU @ UNI predicted SDSU 36 UNI 19 actual: L OCT 27: SDSU @ ISUr predicted SDSU 25 ISUr 31 actual: W NOV 3: MSU @ SDSU predicted MSU 24 SDSU 43 actual: W NOV 10: SDSU @ SIU predicted SDSU 33 SIU 18 actual: W NOV 17: USD @ SDSU predicted USD 24 SDSU 36 actual:
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 16, 2018 5:30:09 GMT -6
DISCONTINUED FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS:
SDSU won yesterday 90-6. They had just under 1,000 total offense. This is a statistical aberration causing some of the most rediculous scores I have ever seen the GAM produce. SDSU is now showing over 100 potential points for 5 games. Its doubtful any of the remaining teams on the SDSU schedule are going to allow 100 points. I don't think SDSU has ever or will ever score 100. Yesterday was their chance. They just aren't good enough to do it.
This game is not considered representative. The only team that can stay with them is NDSU and they are 15 point underdogs 37-22. USD holds them under 100 @ 97-14. (CORRECT THAT TO SDSU 47 USD 18) ISUr is the third team holding them under the century mark 86-25.
SDSU stats are discontinued for a bit until I figure out a way to handle this. The easiest way is to eliminate the results from the data base supplying information on SDSU. Right now Im comparing predicted results and actual results from games played to possibly develop an adjustment.
Ps. It was early USD does indeed hold them under 100, 47-18. SDSU stats had a programming error in the USD match-up model. I have had a little programing trouble this year. I complicated the matrix so I only have to enter data in one spot and all teams are automatically updated. This required a lot of cell programming (not finished yet) and SDSU had 2 cells wrong. I checked through other teams and it all looks good.
As usual if you disagree or find a mistake I'm all ears. Calling these dang games with the objective of making a gambling profit is a harrowing journey but when you get it right, like the KSU game this year, you can clean-up! 20 points made a lot of people a lot of money on that game.
|
|
|
Post by sdyotefan on Sept 16, 2018 6:31:56 GMT -6
Speaking of SDUI it was interesting they were still throwing the ball some when up 70+ points which is classless! By running up the score they were just proving what a week game they scheduled. When the Yotes put up 77 pts on Drake they literally could have easily scored over 100 if they wanted to but what's the point.....
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 17, 2018 8:34:48 GMT -6
This is the predicted result using only the Montana State game for SDSU.
7-1
Up-Coming W Sept 29: SDSU @ NDSU predicted NDSU 25 SDSU 27 actual: W Oct 6: ISUb @ SDSU predicted ISUb 22 SDSU 32 actual: W Oct 13: YSU @ SDSU predicted YSU 19 SDSU 39 actual: W Oct 20: SDSU @ UNI predicted SDSU 40 UNI 15 actual: L OCT 27: SDSU @ ISUr predicted SDSU 25 ISUr 31 actual: W NOV 3: MSU @ SDSU predicted MSU 25 SDSU 43 actual: W NOV 10: SDSU @ SIU predicted SDSU 45 SIU 30 actual: W NOV 17: USD @ SDSU predicted USD 16 SDSU 22 actual:
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Sept 18, 2018 13:50:46 GMT -6
Speaking of SDUI it was interesting they were still throwing the ball some when up 70+ points which is classless! By running up the score they were just proving what a week game they scheduled. When the Yotes put up 77 pts on Drake they literally could have easily scored over 100 if they wanted to but what's the point..... Just a bizarre outcome. I mean, the Jacks just finished a record season with record attendance, have maintained their #3 poll ranking, and by most measures should be the toast of the State. Instead the story is either: why did they schedule that team? or why did they run up the score so much?, or why did A-PB not play their starting QB? To his credit, Stig has been remorseful in the post-game interview and in the KWSN interview yesterday: kwsn.com/podcasts/sports-talk-with-kwsn/But for the disgrace of the blow-out to overshadow the Jacks' success as a program is unfortunate. Playing devil's advocate, the Jacks were playing with 2nd and 3rd stringers in the 2nd half. I don't even have a problem with them throwing it a little to get the backups reps. You have to run your offense to make it meaningful experience. Seems like A-PB just decided they were going with the "no injuries" strategy. Stig probably should have just gone into shell mode once they were up by seven or eight touchdowns. Good job.
|
|
|
Post by coyotecrazie5 on Sept 18, 2018 14:03:25 GMT -6
I didn't watch the game, but the score doesn't bother me. Stig doesn't need to apologize for the score, but it is funny he doesn't apologize for other decisions he has made. The bigger question is why is APB D1 if they are that terrible?
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Sept 18, 2018 14:29:00 GMT -6
... it is funny he doesn't apologize for other decisions he has made. ... Maybe his apology now is like a "makeup" call from a ref?
|
|
|
Post by Yotes on Sept 18, 2018 14:29:56 GMT -6
I didn't watch the game, but the score doesn't bother me. Stig doesn't need to apologize for the score, but it is funny he doesn't apologize for other decisions he has made. The bigger question is why is APB D1 if they are that terrible? The SWAC basically is not a D1 conference. There's a reason they've opted out of the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Sept 18, 2018 14:55:18 GMT -6
I didn't watch the game, but the score doesn't bother me. Stig doesn't need to apologize for the score, but it is funny he doesn't apologize for other decisions he has made. The bigger question is why is APB D1 if they are that terrible? The SWAC basically is not a D1 conference. There's a reason they've opted out of the playoffs. Apparently they also dropped their championship game this year, and reduced the # of conference games to 7 starting last year. That allows 4 (payday) non-conference "opportunities". Maybe that is the strategy? The "Celebration Bowl" gets a lot of eyes at the end of the year, so there is the positive press for the better teams. Blowouts like this are inevitable, though. Seems like the conference is catering to teams that are looking for a guaranteed win, and are willing to pay for it. Like Journeyman boxers, paid to lose.
|
|
|
Post by yoteforever on Sept 18, 2018 15:08:37 GMT -6
Stig does seem remorseful, I agree with kiyoat. I only know of one coach that deliberately runs up the score and that coach isn’t in our league. The bottom line is that the Jacks are better than I thought I feel and you can’t ask 2nd or 3rd team players not to play hard as they are trying to earn more playing time. The game in Fargo looms large, and hopefully serves as a massive wake up call for the Coyotes.
Pune Bluff is bad but 90 points scored with a share of them coming from reserves makes a statement.
|
|
|
Post by Yote 53 on Sept 18, 2018 15:30:08 GMT -6
You guys serious? Remorseful after the fact sums up the Stig way. I am not buying one thing that comes out of that guy's mouth.
A coach should be very aware in the moment that they are running up the score. Simple solution to that would be in the 4th quarter to run the play clock to one second and run the ball every single play. Keep that clock running and get the game over. From everything I have read and heard they were still running their offense as usual, just with backups.
They should be embarrassed to schedule games like that to begin with. At least when we scheduled Drake it was a home and home, not a rent a win, Drake is a regional school that has a somewhat respectable football history, and when you are playing on the road you are limited to your travel squad. Stig had his entire roster available on the sidelines including true freshman that can now get some game action and still he ran up the score the way he did. Pine Bluff was a bought and paid for body bag game, no other way to put it. Good luck buying your next rent a home win after embarrassing this one, other programs won't forget what happened.
|
|
|
Post by gopheryote on Sept 18, 2018 17:12:42 GMT -6
You guys serious? Remorseful after the fact sums up the Stig way. I am not buying one thing that comes out of that guy's mouth. A coach should be very aware in the moment that they are running up the score. Simple solution to that would be in the 4th quarter to run the play clock to one second and run the ball every single play. Keep that clock running and get the game over. From everything I have read and heard they were still running their offense as usual, just with backups. They should be embarrassed to schedule games like that to begin with. At least when we scheduled Drake it was a home and home, not a rent a win, Drake is a regional school that has a somewhat respectable football history, and when you are playing on the road you are limited to your travel squad. Stig had his entire roster available on the sidelines including true freshman that can now get some game action and still he ran up the score the way he did. Pine Bluff was a bought and paid for body bag game, no other way to put it. Good luck buying your next rent a home win after embarrassing this one, other programs won't forget what happened. Yeah, this is where I'm at too. Not falling for the tired Stig routine of doing ________ and then saying he regrets it, is remorseful, etc. He knew what he was doing each time.
|
|
|
Post by aldewitt on Sept 18, 2018 19:07:39 GMT -6
Stig was trying to apologize away about 45 points. He did say he was exciteD about the young guys and he seems confident. He should. In my opinion right now its
1. SDSU 2 . NDSU 3. ISUr 5. JMU
|
|
|
Post by gopheryote on Sept 18, 2018 19:16:00 GMT -6
I feel you can’t ask 2nd or 3rd team players not to play hard as they are trying to earn more playing time. I keep hearing this every year. And if you feel you are teaching/leading young men, you simply tell the 2nd or 3rd team "look men, we have accomplished our goal, and we don't want to embarrass our opponent. Bat down passes (no interceptions), all running plays at 75% speed, take a knee before crossing the endzone and we will get in victory formation and not score, etc. We told the clock operators to go with a running clock in the 2nd half, and I ask you to take your time getting on and off the field." Do you really think your players/fans would have less respect for a coach who leads this way?
|
|
|
Post by yoteforever on Sept 18, 2018 19:19:30 GMT -6
I feel you can’t ask 2nd or 3rd team players not to play hard as they are trying to earn more playing time. I keep hearing this every year. And if you feel you are teaching/leading young men, you simply tell the 2nd or 3rd team "look men, we have accomplished our goal, and we don't want to embarrass our opponent. Bat down passes (no interceptions), all running plays at 75% speed, take a knee before crossing the endzone and we will get in victory formation and not score, etc. We told the clock operators to go with a running clock in the 2nd half, and I ask you to take your time getting on and off the field." Do you really think your players/fans would have less respect for a coach who leads this way? No, probably not.
|
|