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Post by aldewitt on Oct 2, 2018 6:47:11 GMT -6
10/6
NDSU @ UNI: (NDSU -7)
MSU @ USD: (USD -5) Sagarin has USD -4
ISUb @ SDSU: (SDSU -10)
ISUr @ WIU: (ISUr -12)
SIU @ YSU: (SIU -1)
A Closer Look:
1) NDSU @ UNI: NDSU -7
Mythical Score: NDSU 26-UNI 19; O/U: 45
2) MSU @ USD: USD -5
Mythical Score: USD 32 MSU 27; O/U 59
(MSUs passing defense and USDs passing offensive should combine for a Yote win against a good team)
3) ISUb @ SDSU: SDSU - 10
Mythical Score: SDSU 31 - ISUb 21; O/U 52
(ISUb is not the team they appear on paper. Losing 33-0 at home against UNI removes all doubt. They may be a good D2 team but SDSU is good FCS team. GAM has this one exactly even invoking home field for the Jacks.)
I think SDSU can cover that spread but they will have a tough time scoring 52. Possibly they are a little gun shy too about pouring it on after putting up 90.
4) WIU @ ISUr: ISUr -12 Oops had it backward as to home team. No change to score
Mythical Score: ISUr 33 WIU 21; O/U 54
If there is going to be an upset this might be it.
5) SIU @ YSU: SIU -1 (no home field used)
Mythical Score: SIU 36 - YSU 35; O/U 71
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 2, 2018 8:28:26 GMT -6
From AGS (it originated from five dimes):
North Dakota State (-7.5) @ Northern Iowa
Western Illinois @ Illinois State (-6.5)
Missouri State @ South Dakota (-7.5)
Southern Illinois @ Youngstown State (-5)
Indiana State @ South Dakota State (-34). No respect for ISUb
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 5, 2018 8:37:04 GMT -6
10/6 | Game | Predicted Winner | Spread | Over/Under | NDSU @ UNI
| NDSU | -7 | 45 | | MSU @ USD | USD | -5 | 59 | | ISUb @ SDSU | SDSU | -10 | 52 | | WIU @ ISUr | ISUr | -12 | 54 | | SIU @ YSU | SIU | -1 | 71 | UND IDLE
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Home field for Sagarin is 2.57 this week | Game | SAGARIN | 5 DIMES | GAM | | NDSU @ UNI | NDSU -12.5 | NDSU -7.5 | NDSU -7 | | MSU @ USD | USD -4.5 | USD -7.5 | USD -5 | | ISUb @ SDSU | SDSU -34.5 | SDSU -34 | SDSU -10 | | WIU @ ISUr | ISUr -13 | ISUr -6.5 | ISUr -12 | | SIU @ YSU | YSU -3.5 | YSU -5 | YSU -1 | | UND IDLE |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 5, 2018 16:17:05 GMT -6
10/5/18 5 PM
Five Dimes Update:
NDSU @ UNI NDSU -14.5 spread is widening
WIU @ ISUr ISUr -6.5
MSU @ USD USD +3 This one has flipped. MSU is now the favorite
SIU @ YSU YSU -5
ISUb @ SDSU SDSU -34.5
Just Because the expectations of the fans has changed the relative strengths of the teams has not. USD is a 5 point favorite. Five Dimes seems willing to give USD fans 3 points for an 8 point flip to the underdog. USD and 3 points looks pretty good from here.
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 5, 2018 17:59:54 GMT -6
USD is +3 now? Wow. Time to cash in on this.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 5, 2018 18:14:22 GMT -6
UNI +14.5 isn’t looking too bad either.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 6, 2018 7:05:51 GMT -6
At 8:00 AM this morning we have one change in the betting lines at 5 Dimes:
NDSU @ UNI: NDSU -19.5 Is there some news I haven't heard?
WIU @ ISUr ISUr -6.5
MSU @ USD USD +3 The Yotes remain the dog.
SIU @ YSU YSU -5
ISUb @ SDSU SDSU -34.5
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 6, 2018 7:15:26 GMT -6
At 8:00 AM this morning we have one change in the betting lines at 5 Dimes: NDSU @ UNI: NDSU -19.5 Is there some news I haven't heard?WIU @ ISUr ISUr -6.5 MSU @ USD USD +3 The Yotes remain the dog. SIU @ YSU YSU -5 ISUb @ SDSU SDSU -34.5 My guess is that the “sharps” are now getting involved, and placing large bets on NDSU covering. Late line movement is sometimes an indicator of that. I hope that is not the case with Missouri State, because the Sharps aren’t often wrong... |
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Post by Yote 53 on Oct 6, 2018 7:25:29 GMT -6
Well then the "sharps" are stupid. Look at this, NDSU an almost 20 point favorite over UNI on the road? That makes no sense.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 6, 2018 7:44:56 GMT -6
I myself am afraid of the Sharps because it is money moving that line. To me, and The Game Analyzer Mechanism, 19.5 is an anomaly. I should have checked the over under to see if they think the Bison are going to run it up or if they are betting UNI gets tomato canned at home.
PS. They have the O/U at 44 so they are looking at a 32 - 12 game NDSU. The GAM set the O/U at 45 so there is room to cover the 19.5 if that's your inclination.
I like the looks of the UNI +19.5. I like the under too.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 6, 2018 8:05:10 GMT -6
9 AM: changes at 5 dimes
The line is NDSU -20.5 now!
Yotes are now +4!
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 6, 2018 8:43:51 GMT -6
LINE CHANGE:
NDSU @ UNI: NDSU -14.5 The line peaked at 20.5 I don't think it's returning to that kind of spread.
USD remains at +4.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 6, 2018 9:04:17 GMT -6
LINE CHANGES:
MSU @ USD USD +1.5
NDSU @ UNI NDSU -10.5
Both of these games are at 110 which means if you bet $100 you win $110 and get back your original $100 plus $110 in winnings. To win your team will have to win including the points, in this case NDSU has to win by 10.5 or you can bet UNI wins +10.5.
The math for your bet is: $BET X/1.10.
If it had been at 105 the math is: $BET X/1.05
WIU +7.5 from +12.5. The dash looked like a minus sign so I changed it.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 6, 2018 9:54:51 GMT -6
Wow. 5 Dimes update. You guys did go to bat for the Yotes didn't you!
MSU @ USD USD -1.5
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 6, 2018 15:24:16 GMT -6
Pretty incredible, the Bison covered the 20 points 56 - 31!
The ground game was unstoppable.
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