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Post by aldewitt on Nov 5, 2018 8:22:24 GMT -6
FOR GAMES NOVEMBER 10: The power ranking reveals how a team has performed against its competition. 1=parity. Based on all games the average power ratio of the league is .95. Based on conference play only it is 1.07. based on all games the power ratios for the league this week are: NDSU .47 SDSU .65 ISU .73 UNI .82 IND .89 MSU .98 USD 1.18 WIU 1.26 YSU 1.35 SIU 1.56 Games for 11/10/18: GAME | PREDICTED WINNER | O/U | MYTHICAL SCORE | ACTUAL SCORE | SDSU @ SIU
| SDSU -14 | 64 | SDSU 39-25 |
| UNI @ YSU | UNI -6 | 50 | UNI 28-22 |
| ISU @ INS | ISU -5 | 57 | ISU 31-26 |
| WIU @ USD | WIU -3 | 59 | WIU 31-28 |
| NDSU @ MSU | NDSU -16 | 56 | NDSU 36-20 |
| UND | N/A | N/A
| N/A
| N/A
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Potential upset at Indiana State. If the Sycamores can just tighten up the D a little bit, probably by getting the tremendous ground game going, they can win this thing. Game of the week is at Vermillion with two very capable and evenly matched teams go at it. One wants to reverse it's fortunes and reclaim the winning spirit while the other sees a chance to move ahead in a big way. Sidenote: Bison by 2 over the Ducks this week.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 5, 2018 9:29:14 GMT -6
Expanding the Sheet to include all 3 points of reference: GAMES 11/10/18. GAME | GAM Prediction | GAM O/U | SAGARIN | 5Dimes | O/U | SDSU@SIU | SDSU -14 | 64 | SDSU -20 |
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| UNI@YSU | UNI -6 | 50 | UNI -14 |
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| ILS@IND | ILS -5 | 57 | ILS -13 |
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| WIU@USD | WIU -3 | 59 | WIU -3 |
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| NDSU@MSU | NDSU -16 | 56 | NDSU -30 |
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| UND @ N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2.44 AWARDED TO HOME TEAM FOR SAGARIN SCORES MIS-PRICED GAMES? Watch for these spreads when 5Dimes posts: ILS @ IND. IND +13 at home is looking good. YSU +14 is looking real good especially after last weeks game in the Fabulous Fargo Dome.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 5, 2018 9:52:07 GMT -6
Here's how things stack up at Sagarin this morning: TEAM | CONFERENCE SAGARIN RANKING | TEAM | NON-CON SAGARIN |
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| FCS |
| #31 NDSU | 79.86 | #80 JMU | 67.18 | #58 SDSU | 71.97 | #89 EWU | 64.46 | #83 UNI | 66.36 | #99 Kennesaw | 62.67 | #85 ILS | 65.5 | #103 UC Dav | 62.46 | #120 WIU | 57.33 | #114 Weber | 57.76 | #143 USD | 51.50 | #119 Del | 57.37 | #150 INS | 49.97 | #122 Stony Brook | 56.63 | #151 YSU | 49.88 | FBS |
| #152 SIU | 49.63 | #1 Alabama | 104.39 | #166 MSU | 47.05 | #38 Boise | 77.25 |
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| #47 DUCKS | 75.75 |
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| #51 Colorado | 73.08 | UND
| N/A
| #56 Arizona | 72.35 |
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 6, 2018 5:59:14 GMT -6
The sheets are filled from all 3 points of reference: GAMES 11/10/18. GAME | GAM Prediction | GAM O/U | SAGARIN | 5Dimes | O/U | SDSU@SIU | SDSU -14 | 64 | SDSU -20 | SDSU -23 | 71.5 | UNI@YSU | UNI -6 | 50 | UNI -14 | UNI -15 | 41 | ILS@IND | ILS -5 | 57 | ILS -13 | ILS -10 | 53 | WIU@USD | WIU -3 | 59 | WIU -3 | Even line | 66.5 | NDSU@MSU | NDSU -16 | 56 | NDSU -30 | NDSU -30.5 | 56 | UND @ N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2.44 AWARDED TO HOME TEAM FOR SAGARIN SCORES MIS-PRICED GAMES: - Indiana State and 10 points is all you can get this morning. Not taking it.
- YSU +15 points seems to be mispriced
- It's always fun to take NDSUs opponent to see if the Bison can cover. Right now they will give you 30.5 Seems gigantic but it might be a little tight in the second quarter?
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 8, 2018 5:54:22 GMT -6
Changes @ 5Dimes are in bold: GAMES 11/10/18. GAME | GAM Prediction | GAM O/U | SAGARIN | 5Dimes | O/U | SDSU@SIU | SDSU -14 | 64 | SDSU -20 | SDSU -24.5* | 71.5 | UNI@YSU | UNI -6 | 50 | UNI -14 | UNI -15 | 41 | ILS@IND | ILS -5 | 57 | ILS -13 | ILS -10 | 53 | WIU@USD | WIU -3 | 59 | WIU -3 | Even line | 66.5 | NDSU@MSU | NDSU -16 | 56 | NDSU -30 | NDSU -31** | 56 | UND @ N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2.44 AWARDED TO HOME TEAM FOR SAGARIN SCORES *from -23 **from - 30.5 MIS-PRICED GAMES: - Indiana State remains at +10 points. This one could expand in favor of ILS making it look a little sweeter of IND fans.
- YSU +15 points hasn't changed. YSU has the clear ability to beat anyone in the FCS.
- Now its 31! For fun I'm taking MSU and the points. The Bison have covered some incredible spreads this year and will probably cover this one but who knows?
[/quote]
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 8, 2018 6:44:36 GMT -6
The major rating systems show the stratification of the league suggesting the possible playoff teams. The fans have 10+ point margins of victory for half the league. Clearly at 5Dimes the money shows who the playoff teams are this week: Sagarin seems to use some type of ELO system to rank the teams. After 10 weeks of give and take Sagarin favors the same 4 contenders. The Game Analyzer Mechanism is based on a system of coefficients used in linear equations where we solve for unknowns involving 4 different deravitive levels counting the game itself as level 1, the statistics as level 2, the Game Analyzer Mechanism results and finally the comparative ratios including the power ratio. Level 1 happens, level 2 emerges, levels 3 & 4 apply logical mathematical systems to help abstract assumptions about the future. - The game is played.
- Level 2 emerges.
- Level 3 applies math to level 2
- level 4 to results from level 3.
That is the structure of the GAM. The ultimate secrets of the game may lie on level 5, CERN is working on that now as it is releated to the higgs boson search and emergent realities.* The GAM seems to have a little more respect for the competitive nature of the league. Huge margins of victory are reserved for NDSU and SDSU. You can take your pick but I'm going with the GAM. THIS WEEK: MVFC teams in the playoffs: MVFC teams on the playoff bubble: I don't see a darkhorse emerging, but what do I know? *DISCLAMER: The GAM Institute is not involved with CERN in any way. Its strictly back to the future!
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 8, 2018 7:07:32 GMT -6
Uh... what? That was either the ravings of an insane person, or a discussion between two statisticians. I have no idea which. Maybe both. So what do you think of the NCAA’s new “NET” Rankings?
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 8, 2018 12:28:05 GMT -6
Uh... what? That was either the ravings of an insane person, or a discussion between two statisticians. I have no idea which. Maybe both. So what do you think of the NCAA’s new “NET” Rankings? It was neither. I was just having fun. We don’t interact with CERN at all, as you probably guessed. We do make mathematical models that are pretty good at guiding your hand in picking football winners, the spread and over/under though. I’ve never seen the NET rankings?
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 8, 2018 12:37:01 GMT -6
Uh... what? That was either the ravings of an insane person, or a discussion between two statisticians. I have no idea which. Maybe both. So what do you think of the NCAA’s new “NET” Rankings? It was neither. I was just having fun. We don’t interact with CERN at all, as you probably guessed. We do make mathematical models that are pretty good at guiding your hand in picking football winners, the spread and over/under though. I’ve never seen the NET rankings? They are brand new. Haven't come out yet, but the NCAA has committed to using them in liu of the oft-maligned RPI in Men's Basketball. Supposedly they developed the "NET" as more of a "predictive" model, like Sagarin, Ken-Pom, Massey, etc. The RPI was too simplistic and only based on what has happened, rather than trying to predict competitiveness. This SHOULD be a good thing for mid-major MBB teams, but I guess we will have to see. Should be interesting, if nothing else. Just thought you would have heard of it.
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Post by Yote 53 on Nov 8, 2018 12:59:13 GMT -6
It was neither. I was just having fun. We don’t interact with CERN at all, as you probably guessed. We do make mathematical models that are pretty good at guiding your hand in picking football winners, the spread and over/under though. I’ve never seen the NET rankings? They are brand new. Haven't come out yet, but the NCAA has committed to using them in liu of the oft-maligned RPI in Men's Basketball. Supposedly they developed the "NET" as more of a "predictive" model, like Sagarin, Ken-Pom, Massey, etc. The RPI was too simplistic and only based on what has happened, rather than trying to predict competitiveness. This SHOULD be a good thing for mid-major MBB teams, but I guess we will have to see. Should be interesting, if nothing else. Just thought you would have heard of it. You think the NCAA is going to make a change like that so it can benefit mid-major teams? Wow. The NCAA rarely does things to favor the small guy. My guess is they switched to NET from RPI because there were too many mid-majors who figured out how to game their RPI strength through scheduling. NET is going to be about competitiveness, like you said. I have a sneaking suspicion this change will benefit the major conference programs.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 8, 2018 13:05:58 GMT -6
Maybe. Who knows? I guess we will see. Literally anything would be better than what we have now.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 8, 2018 17:00:23 GMT -6
I have no idea what critical parameters are in BB, but a lot of times margin of victory can be found in the free throw column. It's probably similar to Sagarin in its method.
NET will be interesting to watch in comparison to the exiting popular polls. That should reveal it's biases. I haven't watched the BB polls anywhere near the way I have watched football polls. Is NETs connected with any of the other sports polling outfits?
I sure wouldnt be surprised if they favord the larger schools. They would just as soon get rid of schools like us altogether.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 10, 2018 7:27:44 GMT -6
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 10, 2018 9:11:26 GMT -6
The Call:
PREDICTED WINNER: USD SPREAD: -1 OVER/UNDER: 57 MYTHICAL SCORE: USD 29 WIU 28
The home field comes into play. The Yotes will cover, probably by keeping the Leathernecks score down under 25. They have to slow down thier prolific passing game, stop the short yardage runs on third down and produce and average day for themselves. Im taking USD to cover and going under.
Thankfully this one is inside. The best football is made from outside tailgating and inside football. Who doesn't want perfect conditions?
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 10, 2018 9:39:34 GMT -6
Should be fun to test it against other systems this year, anyway. For basketball KenPom is kind-of the gold standard right now, with Sagarin and Massey not far behind. I really like Massey because they have a very user-friendly interface on their site, and cover lots of sports, including VB and WBB. You should try your hand at Basketball this year.
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