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Post by kiyoat on Nov 26, 2018 17:04:07 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 26, 2018 17:08:11 GMT -6
SDSU is sitting well for an at-large. I'm hoping our games against ISU, UGB, Missou and Indy will help boost us up to the 50's or 60's. Then just having a high W/L in the conference will get us the rest of the way. Look out for Denver. The Bizun are hot garbage.
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Nov 26, 2018 18:51:33 GMT -6
I don't get too worked up about ratings, but the Yotes should easily be higher at least in the 50's. Let's see if the OCC schedule does it's job.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 26, 2018 21:59:06 GMT -6
I don't get too worked up about ratings, but the Yotes should easily be higher at least in the 50's. Let's see if the OCC schedule does it's job. I was thinking the same thing, so I looked back at last year’s RPI. Luckily some poster on this board was tracking the RPI at various points in the season, and posted it in an easy-to-find thread, labeled by year. That was handy. Last year our RPI was around 170 at this time of year. Once we hit the conference schedule, we just kept gradually climbing in rank. We didn’t crack the top-100 until late January. Finally after the whole season and SLT, we landed at 60. So we are two months and 80 ranks ahead of schedule. That puts us in a good position to get close to that 40-rank threshold. For mid-majors it’s more like 35-40 to get an at-large, but who’s counting?
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Post by elcoyote on Nov 26, 2018 22:36:02 GMT -6
How about just winning the conference tournament and not worrying about an at-large?
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Post by yotebewithyou on Nov 26, 2018 23:05:14 GMT -6
How about just winning the conference tournament and not worrying about an at-large? RPI also helps with seeding if you win the conference tournament
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 27, 2018 9:18:09 GMT -6
11/26/18 RPI (Massey) [SOS]
35 SDSU---(40)--[1]
89 USD----(53)--[75] 92 Denver-(116)-[206]
177 ORU---(163)-[175] 205 WIU---(196)-[125] 224 UND---(200)-[83]
309 Omaha(274)-[288] 318 PFW---(315)-[321] 336 NDSU-(269)-[212]
Take away points: 1. SDSU's schedule is ranked #1 in the country by Massey. That both buoys them, and will eventually help us, as we play them 2 or 3 times.
2. Massey knows we are better than our RPI. That makes sense, since Massey is predictive and the RPI is reactive. This will play out through the season, as the RPI "catches up". We are already ahead of the curve with regard to SOS. Drake is helping a lot, and ISU/Missou/UWGB/Indy will give us a major boost as well.
3. Ft. Wayne and Omaha have really bad OOC schedules. Hard to blame them when they are just trying to build up the program, not angling for RPI.
4. UND and WIU are helping the overall summit RPI with scheduling. I think Denver and ORU's SOS will increase soon as well.
5. Not sure what is going on in Fargo. Massey likes them a little better than the RPI, but I think at this point they should fire the coach and just clean house. No reason why a Dakota-4 team should be this bad at a Big-3 sport.
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Post by flagshipU on Nov 27, 2018 9:34:57 GMT -6
Football is the only thing that really matters in Fargo.
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 29, 2018 8:30:13 GMT -6
11/26/18 RPI (Massey) [SOS] 35 SDSU--- (40)--[1] 89 USD---- (53)--[75] 92 Denver-(116)-[206] 177 ORU---(163)-[175] 205 WIU--- (196)-[125] 224 UND---(200)-[83] 309 Omaha(274)-[288] 318 PFW--- (315)-[321] 336 NDSU- (269)-[212] Nov 29, 2018 Update. (normally I wait to do it on Monday/Tuesday to normalize the results with a variety of schedules, but I wanted to see how our upset of highly-ranked ISU affected things) I am looking at RealTimeRPI instead of the official NCAA announcement. Also, I switched from Massey's SOS to the RPI SOS. RPI--------------(Massey) [SOS] 54 USD---------(50)------[146] (Massey shows a SOS of #54) Notice how one win over a highly ranked (#13 RPI) Iowa State opponent catches the RPI up to where Massey already predicted we would be. The wild swing is attributable to the W/L swing (only 6 games exaggerates the record) and even if we had lost that game, the RPI would have jumped due to the SOS jump. I'd give you the Jacks' current RPI, but RealTimeRPI has bad data on them. They show the Jacks beating Baylor.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 3, 2018 8:42:34 GMT -6
11/26/18 RPI (Massey) [SOS] 35 SDSU--- (40)--[1] 89 USD---- (53)--[75] 92 Denver-(116)-[206] 177 ORU---(163)-[175] 205 WIU--- (196)-[125] 224 UND---(200)-[83] 309 Omaha(274)-[288] 318 PFW--- (315)-[321] 336 NDSU- (269)-[212] 12/3/18 RPI---------(Massey)-[SOS] 11 USD----(35)------[38]^^^24 SDSU---(25)------[4]^35 Denver-(94)------[112]^^^ 155 UND---(209)-----[104]^^^ 159 ORU---(166)-----[116]^^ 214 WIU---(202)-----[48] 281 Omaha(247)-----[305]^ 328 PFW---(318)-----[292] 332 NDSU-(293)-----[339] Takeaway points: 1. 11? wow. We have come a long way, both in actual ability, and in playing the RPI game. I won't assume we can sustain such a high listing, due to the vagrancy of depending on other team's W/L records. But still. Pretty cool. 2. Denver will be a tough opponent, and look to be the solid 3rd team, overtaking WIU. They are deadly 3-PT shooters, and, interestingly, shot-blockers. 3. UND-ORU-WIU are forming a solid middle to the conference, but I'd like to see a little better RPI from them. Omaha is improving fast, and may join this group soon. 4. Fort Wayne and NDSU will be the anchors, dragging our RPI down. NDSU isn't helped by the fact that Wisconsin is having a terrible year (like Iowa State for us last year). But these teams need to find a different strategy. Start over in Fargo. Omaha was on track for a major down year, but their coach decided to aggressively go after transfers, and seems to have scored some upgrades in size and athleticism. 5. Summit RPI's in general have upgraded in this last week.
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Post by gopheryote on Dec 3, 2018 12:29:58 GMT -6
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Post by GoYotes on Dec 3, 2018 12:40:32 GMT -6
Need to get up to a 4 seed so we can host. Ha. One can always dream.
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Post by coyoteglory on Dec 3, 2018 13:10:56 GMT -6
I'd say if we want a chance at an at large bid, we can only lose one (if any) of the remaining non conference games. Thoughts by any others who have a better idea of this than me?
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Post by elcoyote on Dec 3, 2018 14:33:04 GMT -6
I'd say if we want a chance at an at large bid, we can only lose one (if any) of the remaining non conference games. Thoughts by any others who have a better idea of this than me? I would have to agree with this. Go at least 2-1 against Mo State, Mizzou and Indiana and not even sniff defeat in the other OOC games. Conference won't give any margin for error either though. Denver looks to be solid, there can't be any speedbumps along the way and NDSU and Ft Wayne do nothing but drag the entire conference down. Then there are the games vs the bunnies which I expect to be three intense, down-to-the -wire battles. One or two slipups and an excuse is given to the committee to add in another, probably less deserving, P5. Such is the life of a mid major. Real simple solution to all this angst though: win the conference tourney.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 3, 2018 14:36:08 GMT -6
I'd say if we want a chance at an at large bid, we can only lose one (if any) of the remaining non conference games. Thoughts by any others who have a better idea of this than me? You may be right. RealTimeRPI shows a team's w/l as well as projected w/l for the schedule, and calculates the "projected RPI" for the end of season (when it actually matters). www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_448_Women.htmlThey show us only losing to (Drake) Missouri, Indiana, and once @ SDSU (winning at home). With that scenario they predict a final RPI of #48 because our conference-mates drag SOS down. #48 would not get us an at-large. We would need to be at least in the 35-40 range. Playing SDSU a third time in the SLT would help, but I think you are right that we might need to add a win, either over Missouri, Indiana, or by sweeping SDSU. For RPI it doesn't really matter which team you get that extra win from. It just has to be another win. Things can change, though. So much is dependent on how our opponents perform down the stretch. Power-5 teams get a natural boost in RPI just by playing conference games, so having a few on the schedule could provide a late-season boost to us as well? Green Bay is getting beat up in the Non-con, but will likely clean house in the Horizon. That helps us too. Should be interesting...
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