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Post by hoopsmom on Jan 23, 2019 11:16:59 GMT -6
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 23, 2019 11:21:55 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 23, 2019 11:23:06 GMT -6
From the thrice-linked article:
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Post by coyoteglory on Jan 23, 2019 15:29:43 GMT -6
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 23, 2019 15:54:22 GMT -6
From the thrice-linked article: I can provide a link to back up your quote if you would like - just let me know.
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Post by Yotes on Jan 23, 2019 23:03:38 GMT -6
I'm not sold we are seeing 2 teams even in that scenario. Mid-majors very rarely get at-large bids in the tournament. Maybe if we hadn't lost to Denver and did another conference sweep, then lost in the SLT there would be an at-large.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 28, 2019 13:03:14 GMT -6
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Post by coyoteglory on Jan 28, 2019 13:17:20 GMT -6
I'm hopeful but still, like Yotes mentioned above, I'm skeptical that we will receive two teams. Maybe if both teams win-out except for splitting against each other, then it could happen. But if someone sweeps the two games against the other, I don't think the losing team in that scenario gets in. Any others have better thought-out thoughts?
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 28, 2019 13:45:47 GMT -6
I'm hopeful but still, like Yotes mentioned above, I'm skeptical that we will receive two teams. Maybe if both teams win-out except for splitting against each other, then it could happen. But if someone sweeps the two games against the other, I don't think the losing team in that scenario gets in. Any others have better thought-out thoughts? I agree with the skepticism, given the bias against mid/low majors. (It is really ridiculous in WBB, worse than MBB.) But I do think there is a better than average chance for the Yotes getting an at-large if they are upset in the SLT (finals), especially if they win out the regular season. The RPI will indicate they should be in (currently 6-2 against Top 100), they will have a gaudy record, they have been in the RV T25 for months, and ESPN keeps putting them on the WBB main page with the mid-major rankings. Yes, someone like the Gophers will end up with 7 or 8 'good wins' against top 100 teams (out of 20 or so tries), and that will be enough. But I think USD has won a bit of the perception issue - the committee looks at the rankings and ESPN's bracketology, etc. It is a small community, and Charlie C. seems pretty plugged in to how these things shake out. (Maybe an active twitterer can message Charlie and ask the question?) Not sure the same thinking works with SDSU though. I think they have the perception of being one of the top mid-majors, but not one of the top overall programs, which is demeaning and ridiculous, but hard to overcome. And their record against the top 100 will show a number of chances, but not a great record (currently 5-7 with two W's just inside the T100 cut). That will be tough to overcome the pro-P5 biases.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 28, 2019 15:00:37 GMT -6
Agree with Gopheryote, but I think the Jacks will have ultimately the higher RPI. Regardless of the extra attention the Yotes have been getting this year, The Jacks non-con schedule will act as a buoy to their RPI.
Watching the trends in ranking between these two teams, They have gradually gotten closer together, and both are backsliding slowly every time we play another Summit team, buffered by winning the games. If we lose in Brookings, but both teams win the rest, The Jacks are now projected to have an RPI of #28 (should be enough on its own) and the Yotes are projected to #38 (bubble, but the resumme looks good.) I don't know what losing in the championship game will do to those numbers, though.
Obviously, upsets along the way would throw a wrench into plans.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 28, 2019 15:15:02 GMT -6
Massey assigns a %chance of winning to each game on our schedule. If we multiply them, we get:
25% chance of winning out (2nd half of season) 60% chance of only losing to SDSU 10% chance of losing to SDSU and one of: Denver, ORU or WIU
all the other scenarios combined make up the last 5%
85% of the time, we are in decent shape for an at-large. Still not 100%, but they have given themselves a chance.
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 28, 2019 17:16:42 GMT -6
I assume they use a tier system like MBB? Charlie C. referred to Group 1 wins in his tweets...
Tier 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
Tier 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
Tier 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
Tier 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351
Yotes (thru 1/27):
Tier 1: 1-0/0-1/1-1 = 2-2
Tier 2: 2-0/0-0/2-0 = 4-0
Tier 3: 0-0/2-0/3-1 = 5-1
Tier 4: 3-0/1-0/2-0 = 6-0
As a comparison, SDSU (though it would never be one or the other in practice):
Tier 1: 1-1/0-2/1-3 = 2-6
Tier 2: 1-0/0-0/1-0 = 2-0
Tier 3: 3-0/0-0/2-0 = 5-0
Tier 4: 4-0/0-0/2-0 = 6-0
Analyze away, but there were 2 things that were interesting to me: Teams you wouldn't expect could give USD a big bump if they moved up in RPI by 5-10 spots (Creighton, Mont.) as they would move the W up a tier. Second, the two teams have the same # of Tier 1 wins, so if all that matters is the number, it is a wash (it is often referred to as the # of wins by group), though obviously the % isn't close. Bonus interesting tidbit: Yotes have really not played many home games this year. Geesh.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 28, 2019 21:47:15 GMT -6
Nice analysis! Looks like despite the super RPI-boosting schedule the Jacks had, it’s still 2 quadrant-1 wins each. The Denver loss was a quadrant-3 loss, so it could have been worse.
Unless things are different this year, the women’s committee has never used the men’s quadrants system in the past. I don’t know why they don’t. There isn’t a good reason not to, but there also is no reason to keep using the RPI. So there’s that.
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Post by yoteforever on Jan 28, 2019 22:31:21 GMT -6
Win the SLT and remove the doubt
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Jan 28, 2019 22:39:25 GMT -6
Win the SLT and remove the doubt Couldn't agree more. Let the Jacks worry about being a two-bid league. This team should be worried about one thing and that's going out and kicking whoever's ass is in between the lines with them.
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