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Post by aldewitt on Oct 1, 2017 12:45:12 GMT -6
You might be right but in 2016 4 valley teams made it. NDSU & SDSU were given home field in the second round. YSU and ISUr were given first round games. YSU was at home and ISUr on the road.
In 2017 the conference favorites may be ISUr and NDSU. If they were to tie or finish 1-2 it would be 2016 all over again and USD, losing to both as the GAM indicates they would today, would have a 50-50 at a home game.
On the other hand a 9-2 USD could win the MVFC out right and have home field through out the playoffs.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 1, 2017 12:58:19 GMT -6
I also wonder what the overall and conference records were for SDSU, Youngstown and ISUr
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obc
Senior Member
Posts: 784
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Post by obc on Oct 1, 2017 13:13:27 GMT -6
I also wonder what the overall and conference records were for SDSU, Youngstown and ISUr 2016 results SDSU 7-1 in conf. Lost to Illinois St and DNP Ind St YSU 6-2 in conf. Lost to SDSU and NDSU and DNP WIU Illinois St 4-4 in conf. Lost to USD, Ind St, NDSU, YSU and DNP UNI * Did have Power 5 victory against Northwestern |
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 1, 2017 19:08:58 GMT -6
I also wonder what the overall and conference records were for SDSU, Youngstown and ISUr 2016 results SDSU 7-1 in conf. Lost to Illinois St and DNP Ind St YSU 6-2 in conf. Lost to SDSU and NDSU and DNP WIU Illinois St 4-4 in conf. Lost to USD, Ind St, NDSU, YSU and DNP UNI * Did have Power 5 victory against Northwestern I believe the Jacks lost to Cal Poly at home as well so I am guessing they finished 9-2. I know with a weaker overall schedule the Fighting Hawks also got a seed. |
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Post by thebacksackdad on Oct 1, 2017 20:52:22 GMT -6
You might be right but in 2016 4 valley teams made it. NDSU & SDSU were given home field in the second round. YSU and ISUr were given first round games. YSU was at home and ISUr on the road. In 2017 the conference favorites may be ISUr and NDSU. If they were to tie or finish 1-2 it would be 2016 all over again and USD, losing to both as the GAM indicates they would today, would have a 50-50 at a home game. On the other hand a 9-2 USD could win the MVFC out right and have home field through out the playoffs. Well I think that's just what we have to do then! |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 8, 2017 10:04:38 GMT -6
Here's how the season looks this morning of 10/8:
9-1-1
Last week 9-2
The ISUr game has pulled even. ISUr doesn't update its statistics. They didn't have a good game and USD remains solid. ISUr is also solid but weakness are starting to show especially looking at rush defense.
The SDSU game hands the 'Yotes a 2pt advantage with no home field factored in. The game is a virtual tie.
The Bison continue to look dominate but things should tighten up for them as they begin to face the top of the league. YSU is up next.
Early season games not called
USD @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 65, typical score 35-30 USD wins
YSU @ USD: USD -7, O/U 67, typical score 32-25 USD wins
Games for Week 10/14:
ISUb @ USD: USD -23, O/U 59, typical score 41-18
USD @ ISUr: USD 0, O/U 61, typical score 29-32 ISUr has not updated it stats since 9/24. Im calling it even right now. ISUr may be fading and USD is certainly not which closes the indicated 3 pt spread in favor of ISUr.
SIU @ USD: USD -11, O/U 61, typical score 36-25
USD @ UNI: USD -15, O/U 71, typical score 43-28. UNI remains dangerous.
USD @ NDSU: USD +9, O/U 63, typical score 27-36. USD has won in the Fargo Dome.
SDSU @ USD: USD -2, O/U 60, typical score 31-29. No home field advantage here either.
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Post by thebacksackdad on Oct 9, 2017 19:19:58 GMT -6
Everybody does know we had be to turn that dome as red as we can, right??? I personally think a perfect record is going to be in the balance. Get those tx as soon as they go on sale! This is a magic carpet ride season and we don't want to blow it in the end!!!
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Post by Yotes on Oct 9, 2017 19:52:49 GMT -6
Prediction: We are in control of our destiny for the MVFC title when we go to Fargo.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 15, 2017 15:50:48 GMT -6
Here's how the season looks this evening of 10/15:
Projected overall 2017 Record: 10-1 MVFC 7-1
Last week 9-1-1 & 6-1-1
There are some interesting things happening in the league. USD continues to show it is a very good football team, the obvious challenger to NDSU. UNI has reversed direction and is playing like a team that has a bright future. YSU is a very good football team too. SDSU continues to baffel but it appears they are a team headed in the wrong direction. The same can be said for ISUr if they dont reverse their fortunes this week. The rest of the league remains competitive and apparently can beat anybody anytime.
On the record:
9/16/17: UND @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 39, typical score 22-17 USD wins 45-7
9/30/17: USD @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 65, typical score 35-30 USD wins 38-33
10/7/17: YSU @ USD: USD -7, O/U 67, typical score 32-25 USD wins 31-28
10/14/17: ISUb @ USD: USD -23, O/U 59, typical score 41-18 USD wins 56-6
For the week of 10/21/17:
USD @ ISUr: USD -2, O/U 68, typical score USD 35 ISUr 33 ISUr may be fading and USD is certainly not. I think USD will cover the spread and win. Im also taking under.
Projected:
10/28/17: SIU @ USD: USD -11, O/U 61, typical score USD 36-25. No change from last week
11/4/17: USD @ UNI: USD -14, O/U 62, typical score USD 38-24. UNI is improving every week, especially on defense.
11/11/17: USD @ NDSU: USD +5, O/U 61, typical score USD 28 NDSU 33. USD is closing the gap.
11/18/17: SDSU @ USD: USD -8, O/U 60, typical score 34-26. SDSU is experiencing difficulties. This is a rivalry game so you can throw the record book out but there is a significant edge emerging for USD.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 15, 2017 20:03:25 GMT -6
aldewitt,
Thanks for putting in the work and doing these projections as they are fun to look at. These are obviously put together using probabilities and I like to look at things that way as well. This is what I think as of today.
USD at ISUr If I had to put a point differential on that game I would probably have it closer to 7-10 then I would 2. The reason for that is that the Coyotes have a tendency to really put some distance from their opponents in the first half and when they don't they still seem to get stronger the longer the game goes on.
SIU at USD If I had to bet on this game and some one said I only had to give 11 points I would take that bet. SIU has been up and down but put me on the island that thinks 17 is a more likely differential.
USD at UNI this is one that I believe 14 points may be a bit much. I would probably lessen that one down to 7 for the Coyotes as UNI seems to be getting their room in order.
USD at NDSU I really believe home field advantage is a big deal whichever team has it. I would go with NDSU by 7 but the Bison haven't faced a team as multi faceted as the Coyotes.
SDSU at USD I actually believe the Jacks are maybe the toughest matchup for the Coyotes when the Jacks are playing their best. If the Jacks just abandon the run and focus on passing they could potentially keep up with the Yotes. The Coyotes could probably coach circles around Stig right now. I don't think SDSU could stop anything that the Coyotes are doing. If the Coyote secondary can just slow down SDSU this game is USD's all the way. I think 8 is actually about right on but with anyone coming into the dome without a stout defense it could get ugly for them in a hurry.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 16, 2017 16:54:42 GMT -6
Hi Coyote Fan, I developed the GAM, Game Analyzer Mechanizim, over a number of years predicting football games. You have seen it and are using it for what it is: a good baseline for probable results based on statistical performances of each team. I don’t bet but it was developed as a betting guide. It has come in handy in the tailgate lots a number of times winning us some fame and fortune. It’s first big upset call was NDSU montana back in the D2days. The Coyotes showed it’s not perfect when they upset NDSU in the Fabulous Fargo Dome a few years back. With closer, individual game analysis, like you have done, it’s accuracy can often be improved. It’s made some remarkable calls including every NDSU FBS win. It beats guessing and provides winner as well as spread and over/under. |
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Post by thebacksackdad on Oct 16, 2017 17:57:12 GMT -6
Hi Coyote Fan, I developed the GAM, Game Analyzer Mechanizim, over a number of years predicting football games. You have seen it and are using it for what it is: a good baseline for probable results based on statistical performances of each team. I don’t bet but it was developed as a betting guide. It has come in handy in the tailgate lots a number of times winning us some fame and fortune. It’s first big upset call was NDSU montana back in the D2days. The Coyotes showed it’s not perfect when they upset NDSU in the Fabulous Fargo Dome a few years back. With closer, individual game analysis, like you have done, it’s accuracy can often be improved. It’s made some remarkable calls including every NDSU FBS win. It beats guessing and provides winner as well as spread and over/under. That's interesting. I've seen you post the results here sometimes but never realized it was something you wrote/developed. I don't bet either. The only betting I do is that my preparation for work makes me money at work.  However, I do like numbers and I'd be interested in seeing what you use on the input side. I have a brother that's an engineer and I never imagined how many non-numerical questions can be answered with a pencil and simple math. |
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Post by thebacksackdad on Oct 16, 2017 18:09:55 GMT -6
You might be right but in 2016 4 valley teams made it. NDSU & SDSU were given home field in the second round. YSU and ISUr were given first round games. YSU was at home and ISUr on the road. In 2017 the conference favorites may be ISUr and NDSU. If they were to tie or finish 1-2 it would be 2016 all over again and USD, losing to both as the GAM indicates they would today, would have a 50-50 at a home game. On the other hand a 9-2 USD could win the MVFC out right and have home field through out the playoffs. although, imho, this post isn't so accurate. Even if USD loses to ISU this weekend, I think they'll still be ranked ahead of them. If you look at common opponents, I think NDSU and USD get the byes this year. Initially you would think if we loose this weekend it bumps us out of #4...and we may and it may...but I have faith that we'd climb right back up before seasons end as, if the top 3 weren't as strong as they are, we would have advanced a spot yet again. I think the crème is settling in the league and the top 4 as of this week are the top 4 as it's going to end. May be juggling of those...but it looks pretty clear that these are the top 4 teams in the league.
YSU is definitely better than their ranking as is ISU and you have to throw Western in there as well. NIU makes a run but it's a fast sizzle. SDSU...I'm not going to give them any bulletin board material. All I have to say is I expect a hard game against them as they're a great team.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 16, 2017 20:11:46 GMT -6
SDSU is a strange team. One week they are a top 5 team in the country and the next they would be lucky to be a top 50 team. This is a team I personally don't want anything to do with if it came to a one and done game. I would rather play a team that you know what you are going to get. If the Coyotes are lucky enough to get a first round bye this year, the last thing I want is for them to play the winner of team X vs SDSU. I have seen that bracketed in projections more then I would like to. Suddenly it turns into a big ta-da with the rivalry, local media etc. The Jacks would have the chance to turn their season around etc, etc, etc. I am sure they would have a nice contingent of fans that would figure out a way to get a hold of tickets. The best thing that could happen is that the Coyotes play them in Vermillion on the last week and knock them out of the playoffs while defeating them at the same time. If that were to happen of course the bigger story would be them missing the playoffs instead of USD making it.
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Post by thebacksackdad on Oct 16, 2017 20:46:00 GMT -6
SDSU is a strange team. One week they are a top 5 team in the country and the next they would be lucky to be a top 50 team. This is a team I personally don't want anything to do with if it came to a one and done game. I would rather play a team that you know what you are going to get. If the Coyotes are lucky enough to get a first round bye this year, the last thing I want is for them to play the winner of team X vs SDSU. I have seen that bracketed in projections more then I would like to. Suddenly it turns into a big ta-da with the rivalry, local media etc. The Jacks would have the chance to turn their season around etc, etc, etc. I am sure they would have a nice contingent of fans that would figure out a way to get a hold of tickets. The best thing that could happen is that the Coyotes play them in Vermillion on the last week and knock them out of the playoffs while defeating them at the same time. If that were to happen of course the bigger story would be them missing the playoffs instead of USD making it.  |
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However, I do like numbers and I'd be interested in seeing what you use on the input side. I have a brother that's an engineer and I never imagined how many non-numerical questions can be answered with a pencil and simple math.