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Post by aldewitt on Oct 19, 2017 14:01:49 GMT -6
You might be right but in 2016 4 valley teams made it. NDSU & SDSU were given home field in the second round. YSU and ISUr were given first round games. YSU was at home and ISUr on the road. In 2017 the conference favorites may be ISUr and NDSU. If they were to tie or finish 1-2 it would be 2016 all over again and USD, losing to both as the GAM indicates they would today, would have a 50-50 at a home game. On the other hand a 9-2 USD could win the MVFC out right and have home field through out the playoffs. although, imho, this post isn't so accurate. Even if USD loses to ISU this weekend, I think they'll still be ranked ahead of them. If you look at common opponents, I think NDSU and USD get the byes this year. Initially you would think if we loose this weekend it bumps us out of #4...and we may and it may...but I have faith that we'd climb right back up before seasons end as, if the top 3 weren't as strong as they are, we would have advanced a spot yet again. I think the crème is settling in the league and the top 4 as of this week are the top 4 as it's going to end. May be juggling of those...but it looks pretty clear that these are the top 4 teams in the league.
YSU is definitely better than their ranking as is ISU and you have to throw Western in there as well. NIU makes a run but it's a fast sizzle. SDSU...I'm not going to give them any bulletin board material. All I have to say is I expect a hard game against them as they're a great team.
Your right thebacksackdad. I've thought about that too so I looked at old playoff brackets for a little clarification. A 9-2 record will almost certainly give them home field. If there was a question it would be which round and for how long. I do agree with my statement a 9-2 USD could get seeded home field throughout depending on what happens. I also agree with your summation of the league. It could, in a worse case senario for us, end up being YSU and WIU. |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 21, 2017 15:36:23 GMT -6
Things are changing quickly for the Herd today. Very physical game is now, on the strength of a balanced attack, 24-12 Bison early 2nd half
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 21, 2017 16:33:06 GMT -6
That’s the way it ended in Fargo 24-12 Bison. Lance Dunn down with apparent hip pointer.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 21, 2017 21:45:33 GMT -6
We were discussing the chances of home field for playoffs with 2 losses. That seems to be the situation tonight. I won't know how the rest of the season looks until tomorrow morning but right now a 9-2 seems likely.
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Post by gopheryote on Oct 22, 2017 6:38:30 GMT -6
We were discussing the chances of home field for playoffs with 2 losses. That seems to be the situation tonight. I won't know how the rest of the season looks until tomorrow morning but right now a 9-2 seems likely. Out of curiosity, who do you have NDSU losing to? Can't be SDSU or the USD team that played at Ill St. Not sure who is left on their schedule? |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 22, 2017 7:25:16 GMT -6
I haven't run the NDSU scores. We know USD @ NDSU is Coyotes +5 last week. I expect that to widen a bit.
I will run the UNI @ NDSU & the SDSU game for this week.
I've been watching USD because they are making some noise and I've always been a fan of the Yotes. Love the Dakota Dome. A playoff run in Vermillion would be beautiful.
The rest of season is no cake-walk for the Bison. Next UNI and USD at home. Then the Big Dakota Marker Game at SDSU. As we saw the Jacks can put up points. That game was really the tale of 2 halfs. It should be up on ESPN 3 for a while.
I use a system of ratios and coefficients applied to production statistics of each team. This yields the information I need to call the game. It is pretty good. The system allows for adjustments and can almost be perfect. The only adjustments I have been making are for intangables and I havent made many of those.
Just out of curiosity is their any method to the way others are calling them. I know just being familiar with the league can make a fan a pretty good prognosticator without any spreadsheets or ratios.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 22, 2017 8:57:20 GMT -6
duplicate
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 22, 2017 9:03:35 GMT -6
Here's how the season looks this morning of 10/22:
Projected overall 2017 Record: 9-2 MVFC 6-2
Last week 10-1 & 7-1
The league is starting to stratify with SDSU, WIU, SIU on the bubble. That gives these teams motivation. They are all good. USD, ISUr and UNI are all tied at 3-1. That situation could come down to tie breakers, but there is a lot of football left.
On the record:
9/16/17: UND @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 39, typical score 22-17 USD wins 45-7
9/30/17: USD @ WIU: USD -5, O/U 65, typical score 35-30 USD wins 38-33
10/7/17: YSU @ USD: USD -7, O/U 67, typical score 32-25 USD wins 31-28
10/14/17: ISUb @ USD: USD -23, O/U 59, typical score 41-18 USD wins 56-6
10/21/17: USD @ ISUr: USD -2, O/U 68, typical score USD 35 ISUr 33 ISUr may be fading and USD is certainly not. I think USD will cover the spread and win. Im also taking under. USD loses 21-37. I got the under but the failed 4th qtr drive threw everything off. ISU's defense is for real keeping USD out of the end zone. For the yards USD put up they would expect 46 points. It was an incredible game with over 1,100 yards total offense. Its still up on ESPN 3.
For the week of 10/28/17
Projected:
10/28/17: SIU @ USD: USD -7, O/U 61, typical score USD 34-27. Gap is narrowing making a mythical home field adjustment huge. USD has an advantage on offense. That didn't help last week because they were kept out of the endzone and gave up the big play. Even though the defenses look even on points allowed I'll take USD to cover and take the over. I think USD will once again turn yards into scores.
11/4/17: USD @ UNI: USD -10, O/U 60, typical score USD 35-25. UNI continues to improve.
11/11/17: USD @ NDSU: USD +8, O/U 60, typical score USD 26 NDSU 34. The march is on in Fargo.
11/18/17: SDSU @ USD: USD -7, O/U 57, typical score 32-25. This would be a big win putting the Coyotes at 9-2 and as we discussed at least 1 home field playoff game.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 23, 2017 4:24:22 GMT -6
We were discussing the chances of home field for playoffs with 2 losses. That seems to be the situation tonight. I won't know how the rest of the season looks until tomorrow morning but right now a 9-2 seems likely. Out of curiosity, who do you have NDSU losing to? Can't be SDSU or the USD team that played at Ill St. Not sure who is left on their schedule? I ran the rest of the NDSU season gopheryote and based on team profiles this week the Bison will go undefeated. USD has the best chance of knocking off the Herd. UNI 19 @ NDSU 37 NDSU 34 @ SDSU 20 USD 26 @ NDSU 34 NDSU 33 @ ISUr 20 Injuries are piling up at running back and that is a concern for the Bison. |
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Post by gopheryote on Oct 23, 2017 5:24:10 GMT -6
Out of curiosity, who do you have NDSU losing to? Can't be SDSU or the USD team that played at Ill St. Not sure who is left on their schedule? I ran the rest of the NDSU season gopheryote and based on team profiles this week the Bison will go undefeated. USD has the best chance of knocking off the Herd. UNI 19 @ NDSU 37 NDSU 34 @ SDSU 20 USD 26 @ NDSU 34 NDSU 33 @ ISUr 20 Injuries are piling up at running back and that is a concern for the Bison. Got it. I misunderstood your earlier post (I thought you were saying NDSU would have 2 losses, not USD). My bad. |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 23, 2017 6:11:01 GMT -6
It was a little confusing gopheryote. That’s a gauntlet for the Bison to run. I don’t know what the playoff committee will do with a three way tie for first and a tie for second in the MVFC.  |
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Post by leatherneckcountry on Oct 23, 2017 6:40:22 GMT -6
Heres how the season looks this morning: Current record 4-0 Indicated final record 9-2. Last week 10-1. The indicated losses will probably restrict USD to an at large bid on the road, but the Dakota Dome is nice so we will have to see. Change from last week ISUr game switched from win to loss. The teams tightened to a statistical tie so intangables were activated. The Swamp is a tough place to play and ISUr controls the ball as well as anyone. Overall everything seemed to tighten a bit. The rally by WIU and a better performance by teams, especially on defense, caused this. There is something very wrong with the committee if the Coyotes go 9-2 with their schedule and don't get a top 8 seed, let alone not even getting a home game in the first round of the playoffs (which I know is based on bidding, which in itself is stupid). That would be one of the biggest injustices ever. They would have to be 6-2 in the conference as well. Wasn't there a seeded team last year that went 8-3? Not sure but many Coyotes fans would be beyond pissed if they got that kind of a draw with a 9-2 Valley team. No chance in snowballs hell that if the Yotes go 9-2 they don't get a 1st rd bye totally agree that the bidding is completely idiotic. |
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Post by Yotes on Oct 29, 2017 19:26:48 GMT -6
Tickets were mentioned in another thread, there might be something available still? I'm avoiding the secondary market. Does anyone know anything about the tickets that might still be put up for sale by the NDSU ticket office? If I can secure a couple tickets for a reasonable price I'll be there.
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obc
Senior Member
Posts: 784
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Post by obc on Oct 29, 2017 19:29:52 GMT -6
Tickets were mentioned in another thread, there might be something available still? I'm avoiding the secondary market. Does anyone know anything about the tickets that might still be put up for sale by the NDSU ticket office? If I can secure a couple tickets for a reasonable price I'll be there. I bought my tickets on the secondary market . |
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Post by Yotes on Oct 29, 2017 19:49:56 GMT -6
Tickets were mentioned in another thread, there might be something available still? I'm avoiding the secondary market. Does anyone know anything about the tickets that might still be put up for sale by the NDSU ticket office? If I can secure a couple tickets for a reasonable price I'll be there. I bought my tickets on the secondary market . I'd be open to it but can't justify the prices that I have seen. $50 per ticket is my hard ceiling. I've seen nothing close. |
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