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Post by aldewitt on Oct 3, 2017 11:42:40 GMT -6
Here is the prediction and line on this weeks game.
Youngstown State University @ University of South Dakota
Kick Off 2PM CT at The Dakota Dome!
Here is this weeks line on The Big Game:
Projected winner: USD Coyotes
Spread: USD -5
Over/under: 55
Typical score: USD 30 YSU 25
I gave no home field advantage to USD. I felt this is offset by, and I checked it twice, YSU 60% 3rd down conversion rate. That could cost the Coyotes a field goal.
Good defenses against the run but a thing for USD fans to think about is the 264 yrs/game given up in the air. This hasnt derailed the train yet, but things are tightening in the league. YSU probably wont be able to create a material difference with this stat because they give up 295 yds/game.
This is the biggest FCS game in the nation this week. Lots at stake here.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 3, 2017 11:57:29 GMT -6
Opened at -1.5 yesterday too, so another week of pretty heavy line movement towards us. Again, 5dimes is the only place that carries these lines so I'm not 100% sure the movement is based on anything other than just public money. Still interesting. But -6 seems high to me. Glad you got a chuckle. It was meant to be funny. I used to work for a company with a huge warehouse in Brookings. I know people in SD, and I like the people I know in SD. Hope you guys have better refs out there than we do back here. 4 games in and I haven't seen a good job of officiating yet. Not bias, just poor. The last 3 we got several calls go our way that I thought were pretty bad, and a ton stoppage to reset the clock 4 seconds, then they run of 15 as the teams stop the game to reset the clock 4 seconds and then the team runs of 15 seconds before the snap, 5 minute conferences on the field and then pick up the flag, etc. I did check a SDSU blog and the Bunnies call us the YSU Flightless Birds. Not very catchy, and with 63 rushes for 350 yards and 45+ minutes TOP, they should be careful what they wish for! "Flightless Birds" is actually quite tame for their standards. I have never seen a fan base so disrespectful of their opponents when it comes to the message boards. Go to the Summit Tourney is Sioux Falls and you will see quite a few disrespectful people in person. Bison fans are arrogant at time and that is to be expected but I don't even see their fans as disrespectful to their opponents as Rabbit fans are. You would think with the aroma around campus and the nickname they are saddled with that they would be more humble, but no. |
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 3, 2017 12:00:39 GMT -6
Here is the prediction and line on this weeks game. Youngstown State University @ University of South Dakota Kick Of 2PM CT at The Dakota Dome! Here is this weeks line on The Big Game: Projected winner: USD Coyotes
Spread: USD -5
Over/under: 55
Typical score: USD 30 YSU 25
I gave no home field advantage to USD. I felt this is offset by, and I checked it twice, YSU 60% 3rd down conversion rate. That could cost the Coyotes a field goal. Good defenses against the run but a thing for USD fans to think about is the 264 yrs/game given up in the air. This hasnt derailed the train yet, but things are tightening in the league. YSU probably wont be able to create a material difference with this stat because they give up 295 yds/game. This is the biggest FCS game in the nation this week. Lots at stake here. Home field advantage is home field advantage. What is ironic about your stat on 3rd down conversion rate is that home field advantage is one of the relevant criteria to lower an opponents conversion rate. Coyote fans are much louder on 3rd and 4th down then any other down. Very ironic reason for taking home field advantage away. |
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Post by GoYotes on Oct 3, 2017 12:04:39 GMT -6
Sorry, I thought everybody in the Dakotas was a farmer. You guys do other stuff besides plow? Seriously. I did check your website and I see you pride yourself in diversity, so that means you not only have farmers, but also people who sell farm equipment as well! Who would ever consider a career in selling farm equipment? Must be a low life It would be one thing if selling red equipment, but hard to imagine a good Coyote selling green equipment.  |
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Post by Cousin Eddie on Oct 3, 2017 12:08:22 GMT -6
Here is the prediction and line on this weeks game. Youngstown State University @ University of South Dakota Kick Of 2PM CT at The Dakota Dome! Here is this weeks line on The Big Game: Projected winner: USD Coyotes
Spread: USD -5
Over/under: 55
Typical score: USD 30 YSU 25
I gave no home field advantage to USD. I felt this is offset by, and I checked it twice, YSU 60% 3rd down conversion rate. That could cost the Coyotes a field goal. Good defenses against the run but a thing for USD fans to think about is the 264 yrs/game given up in the air. This hasnt derailed the train yet, but things are tightening in the league. YSU probably wont be able to create a material difference with this stat because they give up 295 yds/game. This is the biggest FCS game in the nation this week. Lots at stake here. Home field advantage is home field advantage. What is ironic about your stat on 3rd down conversion rate is that home field advantage is one of the relevant criteria to lower an opponents conversion rate. Coyote fans are much louder on 3rd and 4th down then any other down. Very ironic reason for taking home field advantage away. Isn’t he just being conservative? |
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Post by yote14 on Oct 3, 2017 12:18:49 GMT -6
Opened at -1.5 yesterday too, so another week of pretty heavy line movement towards us. Again, 5dimes is the only place that carries these lines so I'm not 100% sure the movement is based on anything other than just public money. Still interesting. But -6 seems high to me. Glad you got a chuckle. It was meant to be funny. I used to work for a company with a huge warehouse in Brookings. I know people in SD, and I like the people I know in SD. Hope you guys have better refs out there than we do back here. 4 games in and I haven't seen a good job of officiating yet. Not bias, just poor. The last 3 we got several calls go our way that I thought were pretty bad, and a ton stoppage to reset the clock 4 seconds, then they run of 15 as the teams stop the game to reset the clock 4 seconds and then the team runs of 15 seconds before the snap, 5 minute conferences on the field and then pick up the flag, etc. I did check a SDSU blog and the Bunnies call us the YSU Flightless Birds. Not very catchy, and with 63 rushes for 350 yards and 45+ minutes TOP, they should be careful what they wish for! The Wabbits are trying to win the award for the most condescending fan base in the FCS. They are close if not in the lead.
If I had to guess Humper76 or Coppinhard were probably the ones using it.
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brass
Freshman Member
Posts: 11 
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Post by brass on Oct 3, 2017 12:29:32 GMT -6
Glad you got a chuckle. It was meant to be funny. I used to work for a company with a huge warehouse in Brookings. I know people in SD, and I like the people I know in SD. Hope you guys have better refs out there than we do back here. 4 games in and I haven't seen a good job of officiating yet. Not bias, just poor. The last 3 we got several calls go our way that I thought were pretty bad, and a ton stoppage to reset the clock 4 seconds, then they run of 15 as the teams stop the game to reset the clock 4 seconds and then the team runs of 15 seconds before the snap, 5 minute conferences on the field and then pick up the flag, etc. I did check a SDSU blog and the Bunnies call us the YSU Flightless Birds. Not very catchy, and with 63 rushes for 350 yards and 45+ minutes TOP, they should be careful what they wish for! The Wabbits are trying to win the award for the most condescending fan base in the FCS. The are close if not in the lead.
If I had to guess Humber76 or Coppinhard were probably the ones using it.
I've always hated "wascally wabbits" but for me, NDSU wins the most arrogant, condescending fan award, with James Madison a close and gaining second. In any case it's hard to be arrogant when you got your butts kicked like the bunnies did last Saturday. I know point spreads are a function of where the money is going, not who the "favorite" is, but frankly I don't see USD -6 vs YSU. This is a trap game for us with #4 SDSU last week and #2 NDSU next week and being an underdog should help Bo keep the guys focused. Thanks oddsmakers! And BTW, you guys are ENTIRELY TO SERIOUS when responding to my farm equipment quip. Makes me wonder how close to the truth I really was? |
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Post by usdtator on Oct 3, 2017 12:39:25 GMT -6
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Post by gopheryote on Oct 3, 2017 13:39:22 GMT -6
Let's not get baited into talking about non-YSU/non-D-Days teams this week. Fair?
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 3, 2017 13:40:09 GMT -6
I agree. Wait until the week of Nov. 18th
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 3, 2017 13:48:03 GMT -6
The home field advantage call on my part was conservative and based on the extraordinary 3rd down conversion rate of the Penguins. Changing it would affect the spread. -5 in this game is a lot.
These teams are well matched and well motivated. The reg season games dont get much bigger than this. If I see a Fabulous Fargo Dome atmosphere on Saturday I may start giving it more weight. Against a lessor opponent I would give it more consideration as well.
Having confidence in your home filed may help you make a better bet or better guess on the game. The official line is USD -6.
If you give the home field to the Cyotoes, based on the GAM, we have a USD -8. That clearly indicates a win and cover over the official line. It might indicate an over too but until the indicated Over/Unders start coming down a bit Im conservative there as well.
Your best guide is of course the Game Analyser Mechanism, or GAM. We like it because it gives you a leg up.
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brass
Freshman Member
Posts: 11
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Post by brass on Oct 3, 2017 13:55:19 GMT -6
That is WILD praise coming from Bo. When talking about his own QBs he says things like "yes, we expect him to dress and play in the game." We rushed for 63 carries, 350 yds and 45+ TOP and Bo said "the offensive line played pretty good." That's it. From my prospective, I was surprised that given the bad teams you have played, the QB was still the leading rusher and also in numbers of carries. You've had a couple easy games, I wouldn't think he would carry that much in 47-7 type games. |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 3, 2017 13:58:02 GMT -6
I agree. Wait until the week of Nov. 18th The GAM shows a 33-27 win for USD if they were to play this week. It's a win so "forget about it" he said in his best mobster accent. |
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Post by Coyote Fan on Oct 3, 2017 17:53:22 GMT -6
I think it is fair to say that this game will feature a top 5 FCS defense going against a top 5 FCS offense. Something has to give there. Usually when these types of matchups occur it tends to favor the defense. We will see just how good both of those top units are because both will be tested.
Second halves haven't been great for the defense but the Coyotes average giving up 5.5 points per game in the first half and 0.75 points per game in the first quarter. Those are some pretty impressive numbers. On the flip side the Coyotes are scoring an average of 33 points a game in the first HALF. So on average this year the Coyotes are ahead 33-5.5 at halftime. That is a crazy number. As much as I hate the second half troubles I would rather have that problem then to not be able to get ahead in a game, especially when both teams are fully within their game plans before the game situation causes a change in strategy.
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Post by thebacksackdad on Oct 3, 2017 21:28:55 GMT -6
I think it is fair to say that this game will feature a top 5 FCS defense going against a top 5 FCS offense. Something has to give there. Usually when these types of matchups occur it tends to favor the defense. We will see just how good both of those top units are because both will be tested. Second halves haven't been great for the defense but the Coyotes average giving up 5.5 points per game in the first half and 0.75 points per game in the first quarter. Those are some pretty impressive numbers. On the flip side the Coyotes are scoring an average of 33 points a game in the first HALF. So on average this year the Coyotes are ahead 33-5.5 at halftime. That is a crazy number. As much as I hate the second half troubles I would rather have that problem then to not be able to get ahead in a game, especially when both teams are fully within their game plans before the game situation causes a change in strategy. 👍👍👍 |
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