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Post by Yote 53 on Aug 31, 2018 8:28:59 GMT -6
He's running the numbers through his own model. It's actually a pretty decent model.
FWIW, I would take USD w/the points and the under if you are giving me 22.5.
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Post by yoteforever on Aug 31, 2018 8:31:42 GMT -6
He's running the numbers through his own model. It's actually a pretty decent model. FWIW, I would take USD w/the points and the under if you are giving me 22.5. I agree on both comments |
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Post by kiyoat on Aug 31, 2018 9:10:34 GMT -6
He's running the numbers through his own model. It's actually a pretty decent model. FWIW, I would take USD w/the points and the under if you are giving me 22.5. I knew there had to be a reason you allow Aldewitt to post here. He's your gambling adviser...  Kidding, of course. It takes some major trolling/flaming to get banned here, which is as it should be. |
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Post by elcoyote on Aug 31, 2018 15:57:58 GMT -6
All year I've been wondering where summer weather went. Well, I think I found it; it's 98 fricken degrees here.
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Post by thebacksackdad on Aug 31, 2018 20:39:32 GMT -6
USD wins this! Call me stupid if u like. We have too prolific of an offense to get shut down. Our OL will be stout and give the protection Simmons needs to get the job done. KS game is running... however...I doubt they'll keep running to try to catch a multiple score lead. The game might start slow as they'll play a possession game... but they're not going to stop us putting points on the board.
I'm not going to give this a BOOM SHAKALAKA as that would sound like hollow enthusiasm. Rather... I'm giving it a confident wink (we got this). It's going to be a great start to another unbelievable year!!! GO YOTES!!! ...And yes...I lied...I can't help myself...BOOM SHAKALAKA BAAABBBYYYYYYY!!!!! Enjoy the ride!!!
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Post by thebacksackdad on Aug 31, 2018 20:56:34 GMT -6
LET'S GO PEOPLE!!! WE'RE ON THE EVE OF AN INCREDIBLE YEAR!!! GO YOTES AND LETS HEAR IT!!!
BTW...KS fans...be don't be over confident in this one. David's got something to prove! 👍👍👍👍👍
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Post by thebacksackdad on Aug 31, 2018 21:02:37 GMT -6
WE BLEED RED!!!
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Post by fightsd on Aug 31, 2018 21:39:26 GMT -6
I want to party with thebacksacksdad. Boom shakkalakka.
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Post by yoteforever on Aug 31, 2018 21:58:47 GMT -6
I want to party with thebacksacksdad. Boom shakkalakka. I guaranty you can’t hang with him. 😄 |
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Post by Yote 53 on Aug 31, 2018 22:13:06 GMT -6
I might just be a homer, but I got a good feeling about this one. I'm feeling a statement game and an upset. Maybe we don't pull it off, I think we will, but the Yotes will represent.
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 1, 2018 4:25:22 GMT -6
PREDICTED WINNER: KSU SPREAD: -6 KSU OVER/UNDER: 50 MYTHICAL SCORE: KSU 28 - USD 22 That’s how things looked at the end of last season. That’s a straight run with no adjustments. It’s a winnable game but it will be an upset, a nice big one, that most don’t see coming. If you like to bet load up the truck with anyone offering USD 20 points or more. Where did you find that line? 5dimes had KSU -22.5 o/u 63 --- That's a pretty big disparity. I made that line at the beginning of the thread using the Game Analyzer Mechanism and last seasons statistics. |
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 1, 2018 7:06:50 GMT -6
Where did you find that line? 5dimes had KSU -22.5 o/u 63 --- That's a pretty big disparity. I made that line at the beginning of the thread using the Game Analyzer Mechanism and last seasons statistics. How many games into the season before this years data gives accurate results? I remember the old BCS computer polls wouldn’t come out until later in the season |
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 1, 2018 8:31:24 GMT -6
That's the big problem kiyoat. It's based on last season entirely. After 1 game you start to get a clear picture. If the game were 6-0 USD right now, as the GAM says it should be, Im not sure what adjustments I might make:
1. Coaching edge to USD. The younger man in his prime is my favorite going in +1 USD USD 7 KSU 0
2. Offensive line: KSU +4 USD 7 KSU 4
3. Running Backs: KSU +2 USD 7 KSU 6
4. QB: KSU +2 USD 7 KSU 8
5. Receivers ?
6 D Line. USD +1 USD 8 KSU 8
7. Line Backers ?
8. Defensive Backfield?
9. Special Teams. ? leaning toward USD 1, toward KSU 1
This is a relative strength comparison. It won't predict a score but will give you an idea about their strengths/weaknesses and that can be expressed as a point spread. Others see this too. Superior running backs behind a good O line means a lot of points so you begin to get the big spreads we are seeing uptown.
I got the 6 point spread. My spread sheets show a team like USD can score 25 on KSU and keep KSU to 24. That's close.
Looking at the other side
My spread sheets show a team like KSU can score 32 against USD and keep USD to 20.
The mythical score to break on the 6 point spread is KSU 28 USD 22
KSUs advantage is a slightly stouter defense and USD played in closer games.
I'm of the feeling there is a betting anomaly underway right now. The betting lines are exaggerated and those with an inclination to bet, I never-ever-ever bet, might want to take a look at the points they are willing to give to a legitimate 6 point underdog.
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 1, 2018 8:36:43 GMT -6
One thing USD absolutely has to do is start out simple and straight forward letting KSU know they are not going to be pushed around. If USD can knock them back by giving as good as they get its going to be an interesting game.
If I were coach with first play I might hit the middle with a dive or QB option read
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Post by coyote70 on Sept 1, 2018 8:58:43 GMT -6
Special teams seem to be the achilles heel of FCS teams when they play against FBS foes, especially P5 teams. This may be due to greater depth and better coaching. I just hope we don't give up a TD on a kickoff like we did, I believe, in 2015 when we played KSU.
I think our running game will be key for us and hope we can keep them off balance with some good yardage. I'd like nothing better than to pull out a win, but if we keep it close it will be okay for me (I guess).
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