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Post by aldewitt on Sept 13, 2018 13:33:21 GMT -6
After two weeks of play we have the following outcome and outlook for the USD season:
SEASON RECORD: 1 - 1
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME: 7 - 4
Actual:
L Sept 1: USD @ KSU predicted KSU 28 USD 22 actual: KSU 27 USD 24 L
W Sept 8: UNC @ USD predicted USD 23 UNC 15 actual: USD 43 UNC 28 W
Predicted:
W Sept 15: USD @ WSU predicted WSU 18 USD 32 actual:
W Sept 29: USD @ SIU predicted SIU 25 USD 28 actual:
W Oct 6: MSU @ USD predicted MSU 31 USD 38 actual:
W Oct 13: UNI @ USD predicted UNI 25 USD 30 actual:
W Oct 20: USD @ YSU predicted YSU 23 USD 36 actual:
L OCT 27: NDSU @ USD predicted NDSU 42 USD 20 actual:
L NOV 3: USD @ ISUb predicted USD 25 ISUb 28 actual:
W NOV 10: WIU @ USD predicted WIU 23 USD 32 actual:
L NOV 17: USD @ SDSU predicted USD 24 SDSU 36 actual:
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Post by howlingyote on Sept 13, 2018 14:05:58 GMT -6
After two weeks of play we have the following outcome and outlook for the USD season: SEASON RECORD: 2 - 0 PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME: 8 - 3 Actual: W Sept 1: USD @ KSU predicted KSU 28 USD 22 actual: KSU 27 USD 24 W W Sept 8: UNC @ USD predicted USD 23 UNC 15 actual: USD 43 UNC 28 W Predicted: W Sept 15: USD @ WSU predicted WSU 18 USD 32 actual: W Sept 29: USD @ SIU predicted SIU 25 USD 28 actual: W Oct 6: MSU @ USD predicted MSU 31 USD 38 actual: W Oct 13: UNI @ USD predicted UNI 25 USD 30 actual: W Oct 20: USD @ YSU predicted YSU 23 USD 36 actual: L OCT 27: NDSU @ USD predicted NDSU 42 USD 20 actual: L NOV 3: USD @ ISUb predicted USD 25 ISUb 28 actual: W NOV 10: WIU @ USD predicted WIU 23 USD 32 actual: L NOV 17: USD @ SDSU predicted USD 24 SDSU 36 actual: Interesting predictions. One possession win against Misery State on Dakota Days and predicted loss against Indiana State? Also, bunny score seems off too. I would assume these predictions will change significantly over the next couple weeks. Really like reading and discussing your prediction model. Thanks for posting and updating it ever week. Go yotes! Calling a win this Saturday in Utah!!! |
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Post by coyote70 on Sept 13, 2018 20:12:03 GMT -6
Are we 2-0 right now? I thought we are 1-1. Maybe Rod Serling is hanging around this board and causing some confusion or time warp issue.
(For you younger folks, Rod Serling was the Twilight zone creator/host back years ago)
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 13, 2018 21:54:32 GMT -6
Are we 2-0 right now? I thought we are 1-1. Maybe Rod Serling is hanging around this board and causing some confusion or time warp issue. (For you younger folks, Rod Serling was the Twilight zone creator/host back years ago) A little red faced I have to say that’s how into the KSU game I was. In my mind I guess I still see the win. The Indiana score was a surprise but they played 1 great game beating Quincy 49-0. That gives them an unbelievable defensive efficiency coefficient. It’s a clear case of sample size being too small. In the past, early in the season I have combined final stats from year before into the calculation by weighting them. Assigning a 1 would mean this years team is the same as last years. Less than 1 not as good and greater than 1 if they are better. It helped a lot with the sample size problem but I’m not doing that this year. Too much work. The scores will change each week with the prediction week of game being the final for each. DIGRESSION: I finally discovered a great “new” restaurant in New London, The Model Citizen and Goats Ridge Brewery. Been there 3 years. Fire baked pizza and calzones, everything sourced locally with the farms on the chalk board. Hand cut steaks among many other delicious recipes and generally a great board of fare, they are great cooks and brew great beers. It’s all very casual, by the creek where the old mill once was. |
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 16, 2018 5:09:57 GMT -6
That game changed things. Yotes statistical profile has weakened. That has changed some results.
After three weeks of play we have the following outcome and outlook for the USD season:
SEASON RECORD: 1 - 2
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 5 - 6
ORIGINAL PREDICTION: 7-4
Actual:
L Sept 1: USD @ KSU predicted KSU 28 USD 22 actual: KSU 27 USD 24 L
W Sept 8: UNC @ USD predicted USD 23 UNC 15 actual: USD 43 UNC 28 W
W Sept 15: USD @ WSU predicted WSU 18 USD 32 actual: USD 10 WSU 27 L
This Week:
bye
Predicted:
L Sept 29: USD @ SIU predicted SIU 36 USD 35 actual:
W Oct 6: MSU @ USD predicted MSU 31 USD 33 actual:
W Oct 13: UNI @ USD predicted UNI 21 USD 31 actual:
W Oct 20: USD @ YSU predicted YSU 25 USD 29 actual:
L OCT 27: NDSU @ USD predicted NDSU 41 USD 16 actual:
L NOV 3: USD @ ISUb predicted USD 21 ISUb 28 actual:
L NOV 10: WIU @ USD predicted WIU 28 USD 18 actual:
L NOV 17: USD @ SDSU predicted USD 18 SDSU 47 actual:
All winning gaps are narrowing all losing gaps are expanding. The predicted record has deteriorated to just 5 potential wins.
The statistical profile of the Yotes has weakened. Too many yards by UNC and the loss at Weber with only 29 rushing yards are big anchors. Of course all this system does is take a teams average statistical game and pit it against another teams average statistical game using a series of coefficients I developed.
What Weber did was prevent USDs true colors from emerging. If it is organic from the team it could be worrisome. If it is the normal ups and downs of a season not a problem. It may also be a sign of inconsistency. Some teams have a pretty good statistical averages but are unable to acheive them on a regular basis. Other teams perform the same or better week after week.
Surprise team: ISUb - this team is averaging 37 point/game after 3 games. They have a solid running game with 280 yds average. They pass when they have too and most of all they shut out Quincey 49-0. This score is carrying the team right now. They have a 2-1 record. Last week was crazy too: ISUb 55 EIU 41.
Ps. The SDSU score is very suspect. It was done before I realized the jacks had scored 90. This is an unheard of result and I feel last weeks estimate (36-24 Jacks) was closer to the actual reality of two teams. Im keeping it as a loss. Next week adjustments will be made to smooth out the absurd 90 point romp.
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 23, 2018 7:03:42 GMT -6
In the 4th week USD was idle as was most of the league. UNI, NDSU and ISUr had games.
SEASON RECORD: 1 - 2
ORIGINAL PREDICTION: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 5 - 6
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 5 - 6
Actual:
L Sept 1: USD @ KSU predicted KSU 28 USD 22 actual: KSU 27 USD 24 L
W Sept 8: UNC @ USD predicted USD 23 UNC 15 actual: USD 43 UNC 28 W
W Sept 15: USD @ WSU predicted WSU 18 USD 32 actual: USD 10 WSU 27 L
bye Sept 22
This Week:
L Sept 35: USD @ SIU predicted SIU 36 USD 35 actual:
Predicted: due to limited action a slight change in the UNI score was it.
W Oct 6: MSU @ USD predicted MSU 31 USD 33 actual:
W Oct 13: UNI @ USD predicted UNI 21 USD 27 actual:
W Oct 20: USD @ YSU predicted YSU 25 USD 29 actual:
L OCT 27: NDSU @ USD predicted NDSU 41 USD 16 actual:
L NOV 3: USD @ ISUb predicted USD 21 ISUb 28 actual:
L NOV 10: WIU @ USD predicted WIU 28 USD 18 actual:
L NOV 17: USD @ SDSU predicted USD 18 SDSU 47 actual:
Not much change. ISUr is a good looking football team on paper and on the field. UNI showed signs of life too looking good in their win. The Bison appear to be hitting on all cylinders. There is talk about LB Jabriel Cox entering the draft after his Jr. year. He is a phenomenal player.
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 23, 2018 7:25:24 GMT -6
THE CALL:
This week Its one point by pure numbers in favor of SIU. After Weber I think it's wise to give the Salukis their 3 point home advantage.
PREDICTED WINNER: SIU **UPSET ALERT**
SPREAD: SIU -4
OVER/UNDER: 74
MYTHICAL SCORE: SIU 39 USD 35
I like the upset. USD has it's back to the wall. It was a disappointing performance last weekend. It raises the question of their legitimacy as a contender. A win here establishes that without a doubt. A loss will put the Yotes in the position of having to claw their way back, needing some help and probably needing a win over NDSU and/or SDSU.
Last week the Yotes were unable to achieve their typical performance. They were kept from rushing to their ability with only 0.9/carry. Their passing game was suppressed too. It was no better on the other side of the ball with Weber doing better than the average Yote team was allowing at that time.
What did the Yotes do well? They kept Weber to 1 first down out of 13 tries and they were only able to score in the red zone 4 out 6 tries. Good Yote defense.
SIU defense is very suspect. They allow 483 yds/game with the yards about equally split between rushing and passing. This is a good chance for South Dakota to get the running game going while flexing their mighty passing muscles. If they can do that and subdue the SIU attack even to an average day for the Yote defense it will be a toss up. At that point I go with motivation. It's all there for USD.
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Post by aldewitt on Sept 30, 2018 11:15:28 GMT -6
In the 5th week, counting the bye, USD restored faith.
SEASON RECORD: 2 - 2
ORIGINAL PREDICTION: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 5 - 6
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 7 - 4 Back to playoff form
Actual Outcomes:
as you can see from the predicted W/L on the left to the actual on the right overall the GAM is right on, it too is 2-2.
L Sept 1: USD @ KSU predicted KSU 28 USD 22 actual: KSU 27 USD 24 L
W Sept 8: UNC @ USD predicted USD 23 UNC 15 actual: USD 43 UNC 28 W
W Sept 15: USD @ WSU predicted WSU 18 USD 32 actual: USD 10 WSU 27 L
bye Sept 22
L Sept 29: USD @ SIU predicted SIU 36 USD 35 actual: USD 31 SIU 24 W (The GAM showed the loss. I called the upset)
This Week:
W Oct 6: MSU @ USD predicted USD 32 MSU 27 actual:
Predicted:
As We See It This Week: several games have flipped. the teams that have flipped are allowing a lot of yards on the ground. The Yotes will have to deliver on the ground or make up for it another way for these games to turn out favorably
L Oct 13: UNI @ USD predicted USD 26 UNI 28 actual: (this one flipped. UNI is getting back on track)
W Oct 20: USD @ YSU predicted USD 34 YSU 28 actual:
L OCT 27: NDSU @ USD predicted USD 22 NDSU 36 actual: (its getting closer)
W NOV 3: USD @ ISUb predicted USD 31 ISUb 27 actual: (this one finally flipped)
W NOV 10: WIU @ USD predicted USD 33 WIU 27 actual: (this one flipped too)
W NOV 17: USD @ SDSU predicted USD 26 SDSU 20 actual: (this one flipped using SDSUs stats vs. NDSU)
Comments: SDSU is all they said they were. MSU is for real. Its going to take a set back to change that. They are good enough to play with anyone. ISUb is reverting to the mean while WIU is showing Leatherneck toughness and pride.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 5, 2018 9:41:02 GMT -6
In the 5th week, counting the bye, USD restored faith. SEASON RECORD: 2 - 2 ORIGINAL PREDICTION: 7-4 PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 5 - 6 PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 7 - 4 Back to playoff form | WK | GAME | PWL | My SCORE | AWL | Actual | | 1 | USD @ KSU | L | 28-22 KSU | L | 27-24 KSU | | 2 | UNC @ USD | W | 23-15 USD | W | 43-28 USD | | 3 | USD @ WSU | W | 32-18 USD | L | 27-10 WSU | | 4 | USD @ SIU | L | 36-35 SIU* | W | 31-24 USD | | 5 | MSU @ USD | W | 32-27 USD |
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| | 6 | UNI @ USD | L | 28-26 UNI** |
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| | 7 | USD @ YSU | W | 34-28 USD |
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| | 8 | NDSU @ USD | L | 36-22 NDSU |
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| | 9 | USD @ ISUb | W | 31-27 USD*** | |
| | 10 | WIU @ USD | W | 33-27 USD**** |
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| | 11 | USD @ SDSU | W | 26-20 USD***** |
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* In the call USD was picked to win in a mild upset ** Flipped. UNI is getting back on track *** This one finally flipped to USD **** This one flipped to USD ***** Because of the 90-0 debacle SDSUs statistics for the NDSU game were used. If they play as well as they did against the Bison and the Yotes get their day, as it stands this week, it should be safe from the home field advantage too. |
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Post by thebacksackdad on Oct 6, 2018 20:42:00 GMT -6
Looking forward to having a fresh voice come playoffs!!! 😁😁😁
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 7, 2018 8:29:36 GMT -6
***** OCTOBER 7: UPDATE ALERT ***** FOR THE GAMES OF OCTOBER 13: In the 7th week it's business as usual (finally got that straightened out I think): SEASON RECORD: 3 - 2 ORIGINAL PREDICTION: 7-4 PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 7-4 PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 7-4 There are lots of close games indicated | WK | GAME | PWL | My SCORE | AWL | Actual | | 1 | USD @ KSU | L | 28-22 KSU | L | 27-24 KSU | | 2 | UNC @ USD | W | 23-15 USD | W | 43-28 USD | | 3 | USD @ WSU | W | 32-18 USD | L | 27-10 WSU | | 4 | USD @ SIU | L | 36-35 SIU | W | 31-24 USD | | 6 | MSU @ USD | W | 32-27 USD | W | 35-28 USD | | 7 | UNI @ USD | W | 29-28 USD* |
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| | 8 | USD @ YSU | W | 28-27 USD |
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| | 9 | NDSU @ USD | L | 38-21 NDSU |
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| | 10 | USD @ ISUb | W | 30-30 USD*** | |
| | 11 | WIU @ USD | W | 30-26 USD**** |
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| | 12 | USD @ SDSU | L | 39-27 SDSU***** |
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* Flipped. USD is getting back on track *** This one finally flipped to USD **** Dead heat this week. Using the half point convention its USD 30.5 ISUb 29.5 ***** The Yotes are hit with the full statistical barage of the 90-0 debacle. They have demonstrated they are capable of putting up a lot of points. Pulling that game out brings it even at 27.5 - 26.5 |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 7, 2018 8:47:09 GMT -6
10/13/2018: UNI @ USD
PREDICTED WINNER: USD
SPREAD: -1.5
OVER/UNDER: 56
MYTHICAL SCORE: 29 - 27
In the call I reserve the right to make adjustments. It's no longer a mathimatical equation, the adjustments make it my supported opinion.
This should be a great game. UNI was bitterly disappointed by the result of the NDSU game and played much better than you might imagine by the score. The Panthers are a very good football team that should be able to engineer at least an average day on offense which indicates 28.46 points.
It looks like the running game is picking up steam. UNI allows a lot of yards on the ground. USD needs a productive running game, which has now improved to 113 yds/game, to rise well above that. It should.
The test is in the passing game. A big Yote passing game meets a realitively stingy UNI passing D. Here's hoping The Yotes deliver.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 14, 2018 7:54:43 GMT -6
Here is what happened:
It didn't. 38 net yards rushing. Average/game now is 101.
Other wise both teams pretty much got their average day with nothing unexpected except the 4 passing TDs delivered by UNI.
UNI is a team on the rise. They are getting better each game and are very good now. Their poor statistical start is improving but still indicates a team with weakness, not the long run winner. If they keep playing like this that will change.
USD is at a crossroads. Their statistical profile has been deteriorating. They have not been able to improve the running game but maintain a championship quality passing attack.
Particularly alarming, and a hallmark of all losing teams, is how many points they allow to how many they score. All winning teams are greater than 1. All losing teams are less than one. USD is 1.03 this week. That has to be turned around with a win - a big one would be good - next week or the dam may burst on this season.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 14, 2018 8:30:27 GMT -6
FOR THE GAMES UP TO OCTOBER 20: USD started strong beating the spread in its first 2 games, a sure sign of a team improving over their average. That's what champions do. In games 3 and 4 the Yotes were upset by WSU and upset SIU, at the time a promising team that hadn't rolled over yet. They beat the spread again in week 6 returning to their championship form but in week 7 they stumbled. Below is a useful look at what's happened and what could happen if only... A VIRTUAL LOOK AT THE USD SEASON: SEASON RECORD: 3 - 3
THE GAM: 3-3
ORIGINAL SEASON PREDICTION: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 6-5
| WK | GAME | PWL | My SCORE | AWL | Actual | | 1 | USD @ KSU | L | 28-22 KSU | L | 27-24 KSU | | 2 | UNC @ USD | W | 23-15 USD | W | 43-28 USD | | 3 | USD @ WSU | W | 32-18 USD | L | 27-10 WSU | | 4 | USD @ SIU | L | 36-35 SIU | W | 31-24 USD | | 6 | MSU @ USD | W | 32-27 USD | W | 35-28 USD | | 7 | UNI @ USD | W | 29-28 USD | L | 42-28 UNI | | 8 | USD @ YSU | W | 29-27 USD |
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| | 9 | NDSU @ USD | L | 39-18 NDSU |
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| | 10 | USD @ ISUb | L | 29-31 ISUb* | |
| | 11 | WIU @ USD | W | 30-26 USD** |
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| | 12 | USD @ SDSU | L | 39-24 SDSU*** |
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* Flipped. INS just keeps rolling ** No change *** SDSU seems to be a team on the edge, just getting by. They are ripe for an upset. A win here makes everything worthwhile. The bigger this game the better. It will be the decider in the final standings of the Dakota College Football Championship series too. |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 21, 2018 14:45:24 GMT -6
AS OF OCTOBER 21: All games are now based on statistics from conference play only 4 games left. 3 are picked as losses but we need all 4. If the GAM is correct about NDSU the Yotes will probably need some help to get in. A VIRTUAL LOOK AT THE USD SEASON: SEASON RECORD: 3 -4
THE GAM: 3-4
ORIGINAL SEASON PREDICTION: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 6-5
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 6-5
| WK | GAME | PWL | My SCORE | AWL | Actual | | 1 | USD @ KSU | L | 28-22 KSU | L | 27-24 KSU | | 2 | UNC @ USD | W | 23-15 USD | W | 43-28 USD | | 3 | USD @ WSU | W | 32-18 USD | L | 27-10 WSU | | 4 | USD @ SIU | L | 36-35 SIU | W | 31-24 USD | | 6 | MSU @ USD | W | 32-27 USD | W | 35-28 USD | | 7 | UNI @ USD | W | 29-28 USD | L | 42-28 UNI | | 8 | USD @ YSU | W | 29-27 USD | L | 29-17 YSU | | 10/27 | NDSU @ USD | L | 36-22 NDSU |
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| | 11/3 | USD @ ISUb | L | 31-28 ISUb* | |
| | 11/10 | WIU @ USD | W | 29-28 USD** |
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| | 11/17 | USD @ SDSU | L | 30-27 SDSU*** |
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* Flipped. ISUb is the top rushing team in the league ** Closed to within 1 *** Game is now within 3 |
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