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Post by aldewitt on Dec 16, 2018 9:00:44 GMT -6
JANUARY 5, 2019 FRISCO, TX GAME: Eastern Washington Eagles vs North Dakota State Bison PREDICTED WINNER: NDSU Bison SPREAD: NDSU -4 MYTHICAL SCORE: NDSU 32 EWU 28 OVER/UNDER: 60 NDSU to win cover and take the over Amazing Facts: - Both Alabama and EWU scored 623 points this season
- EWU outgained Alabama 7,566 yds to 6,859
- EWU avgs 540 yds/game Alabama 527
- On paper Alabama vs NDSU looks a lot like this game with Alabama winning
I use power ratios to differentiate in a close game.
Offense: NDSU 79 EWU 85. A lower number is better. Alabama has a 77.
On offense EWU has a weaker power ratio. This means they have a harder time scoring on any given offensive drive. As good as they are and explosive as they are NDSU is more efficient and has a flatter slope than EWU when it comes to the steepness of their climb up winning mountain.
Defense: NDSU 172 EWU 125 Alabama 139
The real difference between the teams is defense. A higher number is better indicating how hard it is for an opponent to score. NDSUs defensive slope is much steeper than EWU. Again EWU has a steeper hill to climb.
We are very careful with the spreads. Because the goal of the GAM is to guide the winning bettors hand while predicting the winner a narrow spread can be a clear sign to take the winner to cover. It is for this game and as we have learned the Bison will cover, at least until they don't.
The over/under is a different story. Washington State had 565 yards of offense against them and scored 59. NDSU had 608 against SDSU and scored 44. EWU is perfectly capable of picking up 21 themselves. It is now apparent:
Take NDSU to win, cover and take the over for a triple!
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 22, 2018 4:18:28 GMT -6
Interesting spread on 5 dimes. They have EWU underdogs at +14.5. The first half spread is EWU at +8. Looks like the bettors are expecting a crockpot game with EWU slowly getting cooked. Score by quarters 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total North Dakota State 163 167 124 130 584 Opponents 48 24 69 24 165 NDSU scores a lot in the first 2 qtrs. Opponents don’t get much in the 2nd and 4th quarters. From here it seems the Bison could cover 8 points in first half. Over under is 31.5 for first half. We we are going with NDSU to win and cover the first half and win and cover the game. Over under is 61 for game, 31.5 for the first half. We like both overs. We may regret that because it could turn out EWU won’t be able to score like they are accustomed. KEY FACT: Washington State ran up 59 on EWU. First half WSU 28 EWU 10. Final score WSU 59 EWU 24. At 5 Dimes: If you take points the betting line on the game is NDSU -110, EWU +120. You have to bet $110 to win $100 on NDSU. If you win you walk away with $210. Original bet plus $100. EWU wins $120 on $100 bet. Put up $100 and walk with $220. On a straight up bet bet it looks like $100 bet on EWU will win $435. You walk with $535 for NDSU you win $100 for putting up $570 walking with $670 if NDSU wins. So far 5dimes is the only service of 6 I watch that has this game posted. www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/www.5dimes.mobi/beta/BbGameSelection.aspNote the various over unders you can choose on this game. Live betting during game will be underway at kickoff. I learn more every day!
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Post by coyote70 on Dec 22, 2018 8:52:16 GMT -6
You shoulda had another category. Something like: "Will watch the game but may the best team win". That's me.
I have interest but the winner for me is to just see a good game.
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 23, 2018 6:18:36 GMT -6
You shoulda had another category. Something like: "Will watch the game but may the best team win". That's me. I have interest but the winner for me is to just see a good game. Good idea! I watch a lot of football that way too.
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Post by yoteforever on Dec 23, 2018 12:47:59 GMT -6
I don’t buy the whole argument let’s win this for the staff. I think they loved Coach Klieman, but also deep in my heart a certain percentage have to think WTF. The whole we are family thing is out the door. Disruption plus apathy and I like Eastern Washington both with the points and outright. I prefer to have the MVFC win all times but I don’t think it’s gonna happen.
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obc
Senior Member
Posts: 781
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Post by obc on Dec 23, 2018 13:43:56 GMT -6
I don’t buy the whole argument let’s win this for the staff. I think they loved Coach Klieman, but also deep in my heart a certain percentage have to think WTF. The whole we are family thing is out the door. Disruption plus apathy and I like Eastern Washington both with the points and outright. I prefer to have the MVFC win all times but I don’t think it’s gonna happen. Will be quite interesting to see if NDSU is distracted or not. My intuition is that NDSU will be focused and will execute well. The reason I think that is that NDSU has 25+ Seniors, which include the key leaders on both offense and defense. The seniors will take over and demand the team performs. Key matchup will be - can the NDSU defense get to the EWU mobile QB and cause him to make poor decisions. If the EWU OL can protect him, EWU has the skill positions to get open. Will be fun to watch.
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Dec 23, 2018 14:15:27 GMT -6
NDSU wins by 14+
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Post by yoteforever on Dec 23, 2018 16:19:47 GMT -6
I don’t buy the whole argument let’s win this for the staff. I think they loved Coach Klieman, but also deep in my heart a certain percentage have to think WTF. The whole we are family thing is out the door. Disruption plus apathy and I like Eastern Washington both with the points and outright. I prefer to have the MVFC win all times but I don’t think it’s gonna happen. Will be quite interesting to see if NDSU is distracted or not. My intuition is that NDSU will be focused and will execute well. The reason I think that is that NDSU has 25+ Seniors, which include the key leaders on both offense and defense. The seniors will take over and demand the team performs. Key matchup will be - can the NDSU defense get to the EWU mobile QB and cause him to make poor decisions. If the EWU OL can protect him, EWU has the skill positions to get open. Will be fun to watch. That’s the “coach” in you. Lol
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 28, 2018 5:59:05 GMT -6
I think EWU will win if they are good enough not because NDSU lets down for some reason.
Tickets are crazy with seats on the 50 over $500. Nothing under $100 when I looked. Rumor of standing room only to be released for $75.
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 29, 2018 11:17:35 GMT -6
Looked this morning and sec 100 opened for $90. They are high seats in end zone corner. There aren’t as many $500 tickets. There are a lot of choices in the stadium so maybe a person would be better off waiting to buy in the parking lot? Nice to have seats guaranteed though if you are making the trip. www.vividseats.com/mobile/Production.action?production.productionId=2819745
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Post by aldewitt on Dec 30, 2018 5:21:22 GMT -6
NDSU is -14.5 this morning at five dimes
their money line in a straight up bet for the winner:
NDSU to win: bet $570 to win $100
EWU to win: bet $100 to win $435
we saw odds like that, even better, when NDSU marched on the Gophers, Kansas State and Iowa, all very hugh winners for those willing to take the bet Bison to win.
The GAM at NDSU -4 seems low. By all accounts 4 points won’t help EWU. NDSU may finish the season in Sagarins top 15.
OK defense is not very good. There may be some absurd odds in favor of USD for that one.
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Post by aldewitt on Jan 1, 2019 9:15:34 GMT -6
After reading the EWU fan board I got the feeling they can make it a game. I’ve seen them play a couple times and their video thread will give you all the film you could want. They are indeed good with some outstanding players.
One thing they never mention is the Washington State game. They lost 59-24. Sagarin has WSU at 19. NDSU is 18. I expect this game to look like that one.
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Post by aldewitt on Jan 2, 2019 8:41:19 GMT -6
Mid 30s with 90% chance of rain for Saturday’s game. Bad weather they say favors the underdog
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Post by aldewitt on Jan 4, 2019 7:11:40 GMT -6
Bad weather moving on. Frisco is in the 30s now but it is improving. Expecting 63 and sunny for kickoff
the betting spread is 14.5. O/U up to 61.5. People are expecting a good game.
I saw Massey at 38-24 NDSU as most probable score. Not that much difference from the GAM indicating 32-28 NDSU.
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Post by aldewitt on Jan 5, 2019 6:44:58 GMT -6
Weather concerns are in the past. It’s 38 and clear with a high of 67 and sunny.
All predictions I can find indicate a score of mid 30s for NDSU, mid 20s for EWU. Dicey for the over under and spread bettor but a cinch for betting the winner. The odds reflect that. It’s tough to make money betting NDSU, virtually nobody expects them to lose.
EWU is a worthy opponent. They are last man standing with the best chance to derail a team trying to stake out a legit claim to being among the best ever. It could truly be a game for the ages.
Kickoff 1 PM central time ESPN 2.
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