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Post by kiyoat on Mar 29, 2019 12:59:15 GMT -6
So I was thowing around the idea of doing some analysis of the different Summit teams, and what they lose, what they return next year. There are a lot of stats I could look at, like:
-Career starts/ season starts lost/returning
-Career game minutes/ 2018-19 ave minutes/ total minutes
-career points / season ave points / total points / points per 40 min
-average rebounds (season or career)
-assist/turnover ratios (season or career)
-shooting efficiency
-blocks/steals (total, average, per 40 min)
etc.
I could take it a lot of different directions, but didn't want to waste time charting stuff that doesn't mean much. So what stats would give the best picture of the level of talent/experience each Summit team is returning next year vs. what they are losing? Should I include height, class or position? (at least guard vs. forward)
I'll have to update it through the transfer season, but that's pretty easy to do.
Also will to the same for the women's teams, but the Jacks are still playing, so...
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 29, 2019 13:01:23 GMT -6
Could also look at what's coming in for freshmen, but it would be hard to quantify or standardize stats for high school kids. Transfers would have some stats.
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Post by elcoyote on Mar 30, 2019 14:11:53 GMT -6
I'll take the bait on this. I'm not going to use stats of any kind because stats involve math and math is the work of Satan so all this is opinion based on my own lame observations. I'm not going to rate teams 1 through 9, but put each in one of three categories: top, middle and bottom in how I expect things to hash out next season. Obviously transfers or incoming freshmen aren't figured into this evaluation. Neither does the order in which how any given team in any given category is listed mean that I think that particular team is necessarily going to finish high than others in the same category. They're all just generalized groupings. So, without further ado:
Top Tier- NDSU, USD and Oral Roberts.
NDSU has everyone back so right there gives them a leg up, but they are by no means going to be a dominant team. Question remains of this team is who are they really? Did they just get hot at the right time or are they the average bunch they showed most of the year and benefited from some upsets? They're well balanced and deep and Shahid is a quality point guard. I really don't think I'm wearing red glasses placing USD in this category. Four starters back, including first team all conference Stanley Umude, and the return of an all conference player in Tyler Hagedorn should make the 'Yotes a formidable opponent in the conference. It will definitely improve the offense. USD will need to develop some depth and shoot the ball better to make a run next season. I can never figure ORU out. Year in and year out they have the "all get off the bus" team, but it never seems to translate onto the court. One thing is that they're the only primarily zone team in the Summit which maybe isn't so good given that the Summit is one of the best 3 point shooting conferences in the nation and they do semi suck when forced to play man. Still, with Nzekwesi, Obanor, who could be the league's next superstar, and Kearns at point they'll be tough although, with their history of under achieving, this is the team I have the least confidence in as far as top tier.
Middle Tier- Western Illinois, SDSU and Omaha.
Western will obviously miss the defensive presence of Gilbeck in the middle, but Pyle, Duff and Webster, who was all conference, should give them a potent offense, albeit one that relies on perimeter scoring. Webster sometimes needs to realize he's not the only one on the floor as I think he too often dominates the ball and doesn't get others involved enough. When that happens the 'Necks seem to struggle unless he's insanely hot. SDSU is really a mystery team and I really don't know how to rate these guys simply because there really isn't much to go on. I put them in this bunch because they usually come up with something and it's rumored that they have good freshmen, but who would know because they never got to play. So if they're good why didn't they play? There were plenty of opportunities for playing time last season. Jenkins will probably lead the league in scoring, but he'll also lead the league in shots taken and possibly in forced shots as well. Other then that there are a few role players back then we'll see. This will be the hardest team to predict next season. Omaha losses it's two best players, but had a deep team. Pile and Gibson provide a nice base to build on that will make them dangerous.
Bottom- Ft Wayne, UND and Denver
Ft Wayne loses Harrell and Konchar. That's a lot from a wildly inconsistent bunch who failed to show up for some games, but in others were as tough as anyone. Holby and Wier can shoot it, but it's going to take more than that. UND loses it's two best players as well. That seems to be a trend with a lot of teams. Stewart is a very good guard, Moody and Walter can play a bit, but many of the others are going to have to step it up. Denver seemed to be an uninterested mess by the end of the season and also lose Rosga, who was very good, and Harrell. They have a long way to go but, unlike football, it is fairly easy for a quick turnaround in basketball.
All in all, I really don't think there will be a single dominant team in the conference next season and there's not that huge a difference between the three teams in the top tier and the three in the bottom tier. New players could alter these ratings dramatically. Should make for a highly competitive Summit League season and an absolutely cutthroat league tournament. Maybe next season will be the year every team goes 8 and 8.
Feel free to tell me why I'm wrong.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 30, 2019 18:36:35 GMT -6
Solid, analysis. No disagreement here. I’ll still do some stats when I get a chance....
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Post by aldewitt on Mar 31, 2019 8:11:04 GMT -6
I would include class, height, weight and shooting percentages when analyzing the individual players. Position is probably important too. When I do look at game stats I Lways look at free throw first and then 3 point and field shooting. Turn overs are important too.
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Post by leatherneckcountry on Apr 1, 2019 6:00:18 GMT -6
We got coach Wright back next year so I don’t have much faith in us being in the middle tier.
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Post by kiyoat on Apr 1, 2019 13:58:27 GMT -6
We got coach right back next year so I don’t have much faith in us being in the middle tier. Oh, I don't know. He seemed to have the Wright strategy for knocking off the Jacks...... |
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