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Post by yoteforever on Oct 29, 2019 17:46:07 GMT -6
I think you've got to take the last two losses last season with a grain of salt. If Sjerven and Duffy are fully healthy this team will be able to beat just about anybody on a given night. They're going to miss the hustle, toughness and clutch FT shooting from Arens, particularly early in the season, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the ball moves a little better offensively without her. The flip side of that is that they will also miss her ability to get to the basket and draw a foul when things bogged down offensively. It will be interesting to see how they overcome her absence and who, if anybody, steps up and becomes that closer from the stripe. I love this team and a huge fan of our coaching staff. That being said, I go to a lot of games between USD and Iowa State because I love the game, but I don’t consider myself capable of comparing lineups and doing analysis. I go more by gut feel and mo jo of the team at the time. My question to you is based on your ability to break down opponents based on strengths and weaknesses, at what part of the rankings do you think that we couldn’t beat the opponent no matter how well we played? Example, if Oregon is number 1 do you see a situation where we could beat them? If the answer is NO, then how far down the rankings do you go before you say we have better than a punchers chance? So let’s say Clemson is 10th, in your mind is there a situation where we can beat them and not be a fluke? Another way to ask us can we beat the 14th ranked team? 11th? 8th? I’m curious for your answer because I totally respect your analysis.
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Post by elcoyote on Oct 29, 2019 17:51:02 GMT -6
I think you've got to take the last two losses last season with a grain of salt. If Sjerven and Duffy are fully healthy this team will be able to beat just about anybody on a given night. They're going to miss the hustle, toughness and clutch FT shooting from Arens, particularly early in the season, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the ball moves a little better offensively without her. The flip side of that is that they will also miss her ability to get to the basket and draw a foul when things bogged down offensively. It will be interesting to see how they overcome her absence and who, if anybody, steps up and becomes that closer from the stripe. ^^^^^this^^^^^
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Oct 29, 2019 18:14:40 GMT -6
I think you've got to take the last two losses last season with a grain of salt. If Sjerven and Duffy are fully healthy this team will be able to beat just about anybody on a given night. They're going to miss the hustle, toughness and clutch FT shooting from Arens, particularly early in the season, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the ball moves a little better offensively without her. The flip side of that is that they will also miss her ability to get to the basket and draw a foul when things bogged down offensively. It will be interesting to see how they overcome her absence and who, if anybody, steps up and becomes that closer from the stripe. I love this team and a huge fan of our coaching staff. That being said, I go to a lot of games between USD and Iowa State because I love the game, but I don’t consider myself capable of comparing lineups and doing analysis. I go more by gut feel and mo jo of the team at the time. My question to you is based on your ability to break down opponents based on strengths and weaknesses, at what part of the rankings do you think that we couldn’t beat the opponent no matter how well we played? Example, if Oregon is number 1 do you see a situation where we could beat them? If the answer is NO, then how far down the rankings do you go before you say we have better than a punchers chance? So let’s say Clemson is 10th, in your mind is there a situation where we can beat them and not be a fluke? Another way to ask us can we beat the 14th ranked team? 11th? 8th? I’m curious for your answer because I totally respect your analysis.
I think this team will have a puncher's chance against anybody. State played Oregon tough twice last year and I think this year's USD team would be able to do the same. Do I think USD will beat Oregon regularly? No. Do I think they're going to beat Baylor or UConn? Not likely.
But can they beat teams like that? They can.
I think that when you get to 15 and below in the national rankings you're talking about teams USD shouldn't feel like they're taking a backseat to in any way.
From what I hear, they played the preseason No. 17 team in the ESPNW poll here recently and it wasn't the ranked team that looked like the ranked team. Granted, that's a scrimmage situation and not EXACTLY like a real game but it should tell people where this team is.
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 29, 2019 19:21:40 GMT -6
I love this team and a huge fan of our coaching staff. That being said, I go to a lot of games between USD and Iowa State because I love the game, but I don’t consider myself capable of comparing lineups and doing analysis. I go more by gut feel and mo jo of the team at the time. My question to you is based on your ability to break down opponents based on strengths and weaknesses, at what part of the rankings do you think that we couldn’t beat the opponent no matter how well we played? Example, if Oregon is number 1 do you see a situation where we could beat them? If the answer is NO, then how far down the rankings do you go before you say we have better than a punchers chance? So let’s say Clemson is 10th, in your mind is there a situation where we can beat them and not be a fluke? Another way to ask us can we beat the 14th ranked team? 11th? 8th? I’m curious for your answer because I totally respect your analysis. I think this team will have a puncher's chance against anybody. State played Oregon tough twice last year and I think this year's USD team would be able to do the same. Do I think USD will beat Oregon regularly? No. Do I think they're going to beat Baylor or UConn? Not likely.
But can they beat teams like that? They can.
I think that when you get to 15 and below in the national rankings you're talking about teams USD shouldn't feel like they're taking a backseat to in any way.
From what I hear, they played the preseason No. 17 team in the ESPNW poll here recently and it wasn't the ranked team that looked like the ranked team. Granted, that's a scrimmage situation and not EXACTLY like a real game but it should tell people where this team is.
Awesome answer. Thanks
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Post by gopheryote on Oct 29, 2019 20:10:51 GMT -6
I think you've got to take the last two losses last season with a grain of salt. If Sjerven and Duffy are fully healthy this team will be able to beat just about anybody on a given night. They're going to miss the hustle, toughness and clutch FT shooting from Arens, particularly early in the season, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the ball moves a little better offensively without her. The flip side of that is that they will also miss her ability to get to the basket and draw a foul when things bogged down offensively. It will be interesting to see how they overcome her absence and who, if anybody, steps up and becomes that closer from the stripe. I'm with ya that Duffy getting hurt didn't give the Yotes a real shot in the SLT or NCAA, and Sjerven obviously not at 100% took away the remaining chances. However, I have that exact same concern this year - it is a very deep team, but those two need to stay healthy.
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Post by Yotes on Oct 29, 2019 20:11:24 GMT -6
If there's any justice in the world we will be ranked in the preseason polls. Failing that, we can leave no doubt in the first 2-3 weeks.
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Post by coyoteglory on Oct 29, 2019 20:32:02 GMT -6
I think you've got to take the last two losses last season with a grain of salt. If Sjerven and Duffy are fully healthy this team will be able to beat just about anybody on a given night. They're going to miss the hustle, toughness and clutch FT shooting from Arens, particularly early in the season, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the ball moves a little better offensively without her. The flip side of that is that they will also miss her ability to get to the basket and draw a foul when things bogged down offensively. It will be interesting to see how they overcome her absence and who, if anybody, steps up and becomes that closer from the stripe. ^^^^^this^^^^^ Just want to emphasize this one more time. Agree with it 100 percent. I think that we were always going to rise and fall with Duffy. People don't realize how many little things that she did from a ball movement, matchup-nightmare/spacing standpoint, etc. that make it so much easier for everyone else. Yet we are going to miss Arens on defense way more than most people probably realize. Her rebounding especially will be something that is hard to replace with the smaller guards who'll play in her stead. I don't think we'll miss her offense as much though.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Oct 29, 2019 20:32:29 GMT -6
I think you've got to take the last two losses last season with a grain of salt. If Sjerven and Duffy are fully healthy this team will be able to beat just about anybody on a given night. They're going to miss the hustle, toughness and clutch FT shooting from Arens, particularly early in the season, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the ball moves a little better offensively without her. The flip side of that is that they will also miss her ability to get to the basket and draw a foul when things bogged down offensively. It will be interesting to see how they overcome her absence and who, if anybody, steps up and becomes that closer from the stripe. I'm with ya that Duffy getting hurt didn't give the Yotes a real shot in the SLT or NCAA, and Sjerven obviously not at 100% took away the remaining chances. However, I have that exact same concern this year - it is a very deep team, but those two need to stay healthy.
Couldn't agree more. The team has some nice pieces and will need Lamb and McKeever to step up and hit perimeter shots and Arens to just do all the winning stuff she does ... but Duffy and Sjerven have to be healthy for them to have a chance against big-time teams.
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 30, 2019 7:48:41 GMT -6
I'm a huge AA fan. She was the ultimate team player, and just did all the little things. Definitely a "glue" type player IMHO. With that having been said, ... I also think Dawn has built this team in a way that minimizes the affects of losing key players.
I think her philosophy of "position-less" basketball, and her focus on the development of all-around players has been, and will continue to be successful. Posts typically get better at perimeter shooting and perimeter defense. Guards get better at rebounding and dribble-penetration. Everyone gets better at ball-hawking, ball-pressure defense. The system works, and it minimizes the affects of injuries in general.
Now, I won't trivialize what an injured Duffy or Sjerven might do to our top-end potential. They are high-impact players. We absolutely were trying to beat State in the championship game with one arm tied behind our backs. Clemson probably would have gone differently, too. But a Duffy-less Yote team won't crash and burn like the Macy-less Jacks in 2017 IMO. This team is too experienced and disciplined to not be a factor in the conference race.
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 30, 2019 8:24:01 GMT -6
I'm really interested in how this team's defense is going to evolve. They have been the top scoring defense in the league for all of Dawn's time here. A big part of that has been effort and aggressiveness, but also scheme.
Correct me if I'm wrong(I'm not a great XnOs guy), but one thing that the Yote defense under Dawn has always done a good job of is closing off lanes with help off of an aggressive ball-pressure man defense. So somewhat of a hybrid man/zone. I think most defenses are some kind of man/zone hybrid, utilizing help/switching.
Dawn's system seems particularly good at creating turnovers and steals, disruption in general, and limiting lane dribble-penetration. What they typically haven't been as good at is perimeter efficiency defense. In this league, that can bite you in a hurry. Dawn has stated that they are focusing on tweaking the defense to deal with the Summit league's snipers (paraphrased).
My question is what that will look like. In most sports, defense is a "pick your poison" affair. When you try to get better at one thing, you will invariably be getting worse at another thing. Putting more ball pressure on arc shooters will open up the lane, for example. I guess it may be a matter of what you are focusing on in that game, or half, or possession. Just a matter of diversifying?
We might be watching a bit of a chess match this season between Dawn's "Pestering Pack" defense, and a Summit League filled with snipers, assassins and "Splash Sisters".
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Oct 30, 2019 9:33:16 GMT -6
I guess we’d have different definitions of crash and burn. State won 23 games and went 12-4 in conference without Miller in 2017.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Oct 30, 2019 10:05:37 GMT -6
As for the rest of it, a basketball team’s “systems” are only going to continue to produce results with talented players. Dealing with the very real loss of Allison is only going to be possible because of the talent currently in the program. Absorbing the loss of this year’s seniors will fall on Sjerven and Lamb ... after that who knows. One thing we haven’t really seen is what Plitzuweit recruits are going to look like in this system.
It’s a football quote but it applies in hoops even more. It’s not about the X’s and O’s (very often). It’s usually about the Jimmies and the Joes.
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 30, 2019 11:36:40 GMT -6
I guess we’d have different definitions of crash and burn. State won 23 games and went 12-4 in conference without Miller in 2017. True, but I'm more thinking of it relative to preseason expectations. Jacks were overwhelming favorites that year with a lot of preseason all-conference picks. They had Kerri Young, Maddie Guebert, and the 1-2 punch of Thompson and Ober down in the post. Loads of talent. With Macy, I really don't see them losing a conference game that year. Also, I'll throw in that a four-loss conference run ties the worst performance in the Jack's 12-year Summit careers. Finishing third also ties their worst performance. Lastly, not appearing in the title game had only ever happened once before (2014 beaten by Yotes in semis) So it's "crashing and burning" relative to their own standard IMO.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Oct 30, 2019 13:37:11 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 30, 2019 13:51:59 GMT -6
One thing we haven’t really seen is what Plitzuweit recruits are going to look like in this system. I'm hopeful that Macy Guebert might be that elite shooter that could fill some of the void after this season. I know it will be hard for freshmen to get minutes this year with the depth they have, but I'd really like to see what she can do. Maddie Krull might just jump into the PG role as a freshman, too. So we would have our own "Macy and Maddie", so to speak. From the sound of it (Coach P interviews), We are likely to see basically the same players this year as last, with Sjerven, M. Arens, Korngable, and Bonar all getting more minutes. Hard for freshmen to get in there. Next year will be a new-look team.
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