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Post by kiyoat on Feb 27, 2020 10:27:01 GMT -6
mid-week men's standings update: seed | team | w/l | next | (H2H), tiebreaker | 1-2 | SDSU | 13-2 | @ndsu | (W NDSU), WL USD, WL Oma, WW ORU, WW UND | 1-2 | NDSU | 11-3 | SDSU,Oma | (L SDSU), WW USD, W Oma, WL ORU, WL UND | ... |
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| | 3-4 | USD | 9-6 | UND | (WW Oma, WL ORU), LL NDSU, WL SDSU | 3-5 | Oma | 9-6 | @ndsu | (LL USD, WL ORU), L NDSU, WL SDSU | 4-6 | ORU | 7-7 | WIU, PFW | (WL USD, WL Oma), WL NDSU, LL SDSU, | 5-6 | UND | 7-8 | usd | (WL ORU, WL PFW), WL NDSU, L USD | 7 | PFW | 6-9 | @oru | (L ORU, WL UND), WL USD, LL Oma | ... |
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| | 8/9 | WIU | 2-12 | @oru,@den | (W Den), WL USD | 8/9 | Den | 2-13 | WIU | (L WIU), WL Oma, WL ORU |
- SDSU can win the 1-seed with:1. A win tonight OR 2. An NDSU loss to Omaha. -NDSU can win the 1-seed by:1. Winning vs both SDSU AND Omaha. (NDSU would win any tie scenario over SDSU.)-USD can win the 3-seed with:1. A win over UND OR
2. A loss for Omaha AND ORU OR 3. A loss for Omaha AND NDSU (vs SDSU.) -Omaha can win the 3-seed with:1. A win AND a USD loss. (Omaha could fall to 5-seed with a loss AND NDSU AND ORU winning out)-ORU can win the 3-seed by: 1. Winning vs both WIU AND PWF, AND USD losing AND NDSU winning out.(ORU could also go anywhere from 4 to 6)-UND can't overtake USD or Omaha due to record, and would win a tie vs PFW, so can only get the 5 or 6 seed, likely 6. -PFW has locked up the 7. -WIU can win the 8-seed with.... well, I don't actually care, so....
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 27, 2020 10:39:13 GMT -6
So the most likely scenario is the current standings order. We would re-match with our three last regular-season opponents in the tournament: 6 UND, ---2 NDSU, ---1 SDSU.
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 27, 2020 10:45:44 GMT -6
This is awesome kiyoat! I haven't looked, but is our path for WBB set already?
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 27, 2020 11:56:12 GMT -6
mid-week women's standings update: seed | team | w/l | next | (H2H) ties | 1 | USD | 15-0 | UND | (WW SDSU) | 2 | SDSU | 12-3 | @ndsu | (LL USD) | ... |
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| | 3-5 | WIU | 9-5 | @oru, @den | (W ORU, W Den), LL SDSU, WW NDSU, WL UND | 3-6 | ORU | 7-7 | WIU, PFW | (L WIU, WL Den), LL SDSU, WW NDSU, WW UND | 3-6 | Den | 7-7 | @pfw, WIU | (L WIU, WL ORU), WL SDSU, WL NDSU, WL UND | 4-7 | NDSU | 6-8 | SDSU, Oma | (WW UND)....other stuff | 6-7 | UND | 5-9 | @oma, usd | (LL NDSU)....other stuff | ... |
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| | 8-9 | Oma | 2-12 | UND, @ndsu | (WL PFW) WL ORU, LL Den | 8-9 | PFW | 1-13 | Den, @oru | (WL Oma) L ORU, L Den |
- USD and SDSU have locked in 1 and 2-WIU can win the 3-seed with:
1. A win over ORU OR Den. OR2. A loss for ORU AND Den (vs PFW). -Denver can win the 3-seed with:1. Winning out AND WIU losing out. (win over SDSU wins any tie) -ORU can win the 3-seed with:1. Winning out AND WIU losing out AND Denver losing vs PFW. As for the rest, 6. NDSU (likely) 7. UND (likely) 8. Omaha (likely) 9. PFW (likely)
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Post by usdcoyote on Feb 27, 2020 13:08:34 GMT -6
mid-week men's standings update: seed | team | w/l | next | (H2H), tiebreaker | 1-2 | SDSU | 13-2 | @ndsu | (W NDSU), WL USD, WL Oma, WW ORU, WW UND | 1-2 | NDSU | 11-3 | SDSU,Oma | (L SDSU), WW USD, W Oma, WL ORU, WL UND | ... |
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| | 3-4 | USD | 9-6 | UND | (WW Oma, WL ORU), LL NDSU, WL SDSU | 3-5 | Oma | 9-6 | @ndsu | (LL USD, WL ORU), L NDSU, WL SDSU | 3-6 | ORU | 7-7 | WIU, PFW | (WL USD, WL Oma), WL NDSU, LL SDSU, | 5-6 | UND | 7-8 | usd | (WL ORU, WL PFW), WL NDSU, L USD | 7 | PFW | 6-9 | @oru | (L ORU, WL UND), WL USD, LL Oma | ... |
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| | 8/9 | WIU | 2-12 | @oru,@den | (W Den), WL USD | 8/9 | Den | 2-13 | WIU | (L WIU), WL Oma, WL ORU |
-ORU can win the 3-seed by:1. Winning vs both WIU AND PWF, AND USD losing AND NDSU winning out. (ORU could also go anywhere from 4 to 6)If us, UNO, and ORU all finish 9-7, with NDSU and SDSU both tied at 13-3 I thought we would get the 3 seed. I thought they would first look to our group of 3 to see how we did against each other. UNO was 1-3 against the group, ORU was 2-2, and we are 3-1 against the group. So you break that tie before you start looking to see how everyone did against the top of the standings. If that is correct then only us or UNO can get the 3 seed, Oral should be out of contention for that (if I understand it correctly).
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Post by Coyote Fan on Feb 27, 2020 13:30:58 GMT -6
I think before the tie breakers are settled below SDSU and NDSU they would first have to break the tie between them first. One of them will be 1st and one will be 2nd so I don't think how teams did against them collectively would matter. NDSU will most likely win the tie breaker if they both end up tied. So being that the Coyotes got swept by NDSU they would work again them unless the teams that were going again also got swept by them. I also believe that the head to head would be the first tie breaker before going down the standings. USD should own the tie breaker against UNO due to the head to head sweep. What does help the Coyotes is that they have a win again SDSU so that will help them a lot. It is actually good that UNO was one of the Jacks losses because the Coyotes should have the tie breaker again the Mavs already sealed up. I could be totally wrong but that is how I see it.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 27, 2020 13:52:38 GMT -6
mid-week men's standings update: seed | team | w/l | next | (H2H), tiebreaker | 1-2 | SDSU | 13-2 | @ndsu | (W NDSU), WL USD, WL Oma, WW ORU, WW UND | 1-2 | NDSU | 11-3 | SDSU,Oma | (L SDSU), WW USD, W Oma, WL ORU, WL UND | ... |
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| | 3-4 | USD | 9-6 | UND | (WW Oma, WL ORU), LL NDSU, WL SDSU | 3-5 | Oma | 9-6 | @ndsu | (LL USD, WL ORU), L NDSU, WL SDSU | 3-6 | ORU | 7-7 | WIU, PFW | (WL USD, WL Oma), WL NDSU, LL SDSU, | 5-6 | UND | 7-8 | usd | (WL ORU, WL PFW), WL NDSU, L USD | 7 | PFW | 6-9 | @oru | (L ORU, WL UND), WL USD, LL Oma | ... |
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| | 8/9 | WIU | 2-12 | @oru,@den | (W Den), WL USD | 8/9 | Den | 2-13 | WIU | (L WIU), WL Oma, WL ORU |
-ORU can win the 3-seed by:1. Winning vs both WIU AND PWF, AND USD losing AND NDSU winning out. (ORU could also go anywhere from 4 to 6)If us, UNO, and ORU all finish 9-7, with NDSU and SDSU both tied at 13-3 I thought we would get the 3 seed. I thought they would first look to our group of 3 to see how we did against each other. UNO was 1-3 against the group, ORU was 2-2, and we are 3-1 against the group. So you break that tie before you start looking to see how everyone did against the top of the standings. If that is correct then only us or UNO can get the 3 seed, Oral should be out of contention for that (if I understand it correctly). Coyote Fan is correct in that the tie at the top of the standings must be broken first. If SDSU and NDSU are tied, NDSU wins. They swept us and Omaha, so they would beat the Jacks regardless of who is tied for 3rd. ORU would then have the edge in a tie-breaker for 3rd, because they beat NDSU once. The lower-standings ties no longer look at 1 and 2 as tied. Their order is fixed. That's why we would have the advantage in any tie if SDSU gains the 1-seed. We have that home win over the Jacks. We have the H2H victory over Omaha in a tie, but they can potentially still be one game ahead of us if we lose and they win.
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Post by usdcoyote on Feb 27, 2020 14:12:55 GMT -6
If us, UNO, and ORU all finish 9-7, with NDSU and SDSU both tied at 13-3 I thought we would get the 3 seed. I thought they would first look to our group of 3 to see how we did against each other. UNO was 1-3 against the group, ORU was 2-2, and we are 3-1 against the group. So you break that tie before you start looking to see how everyone did against the top of the standings. If that is correct then only us or UNO can get the 3 seed, Oral should be out of contention for that (if I understand it correctly). Coyote Fan is correct in that the tie at the top of the standings must be broken first. If SDSU and NDSU are tied, NDSU wins. They swept us and Omaha, so they would beat the Jacks regardless of who is tied for 3rd. ORU would then have the edge in a tie-breaker for 3rd, because they beat NDSU once. The lower-standings ties no longer look at 1 and 2 as tied. Their order is fixed. That's why we would have the advantage in any tie if SDSU gains the 1-seed. We have that home win over the Jacks. We have the H2H victory over Omaha in a tie, but they can potentially still be one game ahead of us if we lose and they win. But I thought in a 3 way tie you first look to see how the teams did head to head against each other (just as you would in a 2 way tie) and only then if you are still tied would you look to see how they did against the top of the standings. If it was a two way tie between us and UNO we wouldn't first look to see who did better against the #1 seed, we would first look to head to head. I was under the impression the same went for a 3 way tie. You first look to see the head to head record against the group, then if you are still tied you start looking to see who did better against the top of the standings. Maybe that's not right though.
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Post by lakesbison on Feb 27, 2020 14:46:12 GMT -6
good job nerds!! lol
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 27, 2020 14:52:18 GMT -6
Coyote Fan is correct in that the tie at the top of the standings must be broken first. If SDSU and NDSU are tied, NDSU wins. They swept us and Omaha, so they would beat the Jacks regardless of who is tied for 3rd. ORU would then have the edge in a tie-breaker for 3rd, because they beat NDSU once. The lower-standings ties no longer look at 1 and 2 as tied. Their order is fixed. That's why we would have the advantage in any tie if SDSU gains the 1-seed. We have that home win over the Jacks. We have the H2H victory over Omaha in a tie, but they can potentially still be one game ahead of us if we lose and they win. But I thought in a 3 way tie you first look to see how the teams did head to head against each other (just as you would in a 2 way tie) and only then if you are still tied would you look to see how they did against the top of the standings. If it was a two way tie between us and UNO we wouldn't first look to see who did better against the #1 seed, we would first look to head to head. I was under the impression the same went for a 3 way tie. You first look to see the head to head record against the group, then if you are still tied you start looking to see who did better against the top of the standings. Maybe that's not right though. That's correct, but you still have to break ties from the top down. If any tie-breaker is neccessary between NDSU and SDSU, you first look at Head-2-Head. They would be split 1-1. Still tied. Then you would look at record vs the rest of the teams, from the top down in order to break the 1v2 tie. If there is a tie for 3rd place, that tie has not been resolved yet. so you would look at each team's record vs the group. NDSU has swept both USD and Omaha, so regardless of who is in the tie for 3rd place, NDSU will beat SDSU. From that point on, you look at NDSU as #1, and SDSU as #2. That tie is broken. And not in our favor. So if there is a tie for 3rd place, you are correct. You first look at Head-2-Head. We would beat Omaha in a two-way tie. Omaha still has a chance to not be in a tie with us, and just win 3rd place outright, though. If we lose and they win, they are a game ahead. Now if ORU gets into the action, and is tied with USD (two-way tie), we split with them in the H2H. We would then look at record vs the top team. If it is NDSU, ORU beats USD. If it is SDSU, we win. In a 3-way tie with USD, Omaha, ORU, .... You look at the total record, like you said. USD is 3-1, ORU is 2-2, Omaha is 1-3. So USD wins. So there is just one scenario where ORU can still take 3rd. Three things need to happen. USD loses, ORU wins out, and NDSU wins out. (Omaha would also be losing, if NDSU wins out). I'd say USD getting the 3-seed is likely, but not guaranteed.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Feb 27, 2020 15:17:39 GMT -6
The only thing that really matters to me is that the Coyotes somehow end up in the opposite bracket as the Jacks. That is the only way they historically have a chance to get to the Summit title game. As soon as the blue and yellow are paired with the Yotes it is over for South Dakota.
I don't really care who the match up is in the first round. ORU hasn't really done all that well at the tourney so I am not that worried about them anymore than anyone else. Omaha is the team that maybe we should look to avoid. They seem to have the most success outside of SDSU and NDSU. The Coyotes just need to take care of themselves. They did not have a good showing at all at this tourney last year so they just need a little look in the mirror. They are good enough to beat anyone other than SDSU at this tourney.
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Post by usdcoyote on Feb 27, 2020 16:23:49 GMT -6
But I thought in a 3 way tie you first look to see how the teams did head to head against each other (just as you would in a 2 way tie) and only then if you are still tied would you look to see how they did against the top of the standings. If it was a two way tie between us and UNO we wouldn't first look to see who did better against the #1 seed, we would first look to head to head. I was under the impression the same went for a 3 way tie. You first look to see the head to head record against the group, then if you are still tied you start looking to see who did better against the top of the standings. Maybe that's not right though. That's correct, but you still have to break ties from the top down. If any tie-breaker is neccessary between NDSU and SDSU, you first look at Head-2-Head. They would be split 1-1. Still tied. Then you would look at record vs the rest of the teams, from the top down in order to break the 1v2 tie. If there is a tie for 3rd place, that tie has not been resolved yet. so you would look at each team's record vs the group. NDSU has swept both USD and Omaha, so regardless of who is in the tie for 3rd place, NDSU will beat SDSU. From that point on, you look at NDSU as #1, and SDSU as #2. That tie is broken. And not in our favor. So if there is a tie for 3rd place, you are correct. You first look at Head-2-Head. We would beat Omaha in a two-way tie. Omaha still has a chance to not be in a tie with us, and just win 3rd place outright, though. If we lose and they win, they are a game ahead. Now if ORU gets into the action, and is tied with USD (two-way tie), we split with them in the H2H. We would then look at record vs the top team. If it is NDSU, ORU beats USD. If it is SDSU, we win. In a 3-way tie with USD, Omaha, ORU, .... You look at the total record, like you said. USD is 3-1, ORU is 2-2, Omaha is 1-3. So USD wins. So there is just one scenario where ORU can still take 3rd. Three things need to happen. USD loses, ORU wins out, and NDSU wins out. (Omaha would also be losing, if NDSU wins out). I'd say USD getting the 3-seed is likely, but not guaranteed. NDSU can't win the conference while having only us and ORU tied at 9-7. If NDSU wins the conference then UNO is also 9-7. Which means only us and UNO are alive for the 3 seed at this point. Because ORU needs both us and UNO to lose just to tie us, then they lose out to us in a 3 way tie. That's why you had Jay Elsen tweeting last night that it's between us and UNO for the 3 seed and our only possible opponents are UND or Oral.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 27, 2020 16:39:08 GMT -6
NDSU can't win the conference while having only us and ORU tied at 9-7. If NDSU wins the conference then UNO is also 9-7. Which means only us and UNO are alive for the 3 seed at this point. Because ORU needs both us and UNO to lose just to tie us, then they lose out to us in a 3 way tie. That's why you had Jay Elsen tweeting last night that it's between us and UNO for the 3 seed and our only possible opponents are UND or Oral. I see. Yes, I concede you are right about ORU not having a chance at #3. UND/ORU are not locked into their rank yet, though. UND can still technically pass ORU by straight record, and a tiebreaker between those two would go pretty deep down the list of opponents.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 27, 2020 16:45:53 GMT -6
mid-week men's standings update: seed | team | w/l | next | (H2H), tiebreaker | 1-2 | SDSU | 13-2 | @ndsu | (W NDSU), WL USD, WL Oma, WW ORU, WW UND | 1-2 | NDSU | 11-3 | SDSU,Oma | (L SDSU), WW USD, W Oma, WL ORU, WL UND | ... |
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| | 3-4 | USD | 9-6 | UND | (WW Oma, WL ORU), LL NDSU, WL SDSU | 3-5 | Oma | 9-6 | @ndsu | (LL USD, WL ORU), L NDSU, WL SDSU | 4-6 | ORU | 7-7 | WIU, PFW | (WL USD, WL Oma), WL NDSU, LL SDSU, | 5-6 | UND | 7-8 | usd | (WL ORU, WL PFW), WL NDSU, L USD | 7 | PFW | 6-9 | @oru | (L ORU, WL UND), WL USD, LL Oma | ... |
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| | 8/9 | WIU | 2-12 | @oru,@den | (W Den), WL USD | 8/9 | Den | 2-13 | WIU | (L WIU), WL Oma, WL ORU |
- SDSU can win the 1-seed with:1. A win tonight OR 2. An NDSU loss to Omaha. -NDSU can win the 1-seed by:1. Winning vs both SDSU AND Omaha. (NDSU would win any tie scenario over SDSU.)-USD can win the 3-seed with:1. A win over UND OR
2. A loss for Omaha AND ORU OR 3. A loss for Omaha AND NDSU (vs SDSU.) -Omaha can win the 3-seed with:1. A win AND a USD loss. (Omaha could fall to 5-seed with a loss AND NDSU AND ORU winning out)-ORU can win the 3-seed by: 1. Winning vs both WIU AND PWF, AND USD losing AND NDSU winning out.(ORU could also go anywhere from 4 to 6)-UND can't overtake USD or Omaha due to record, and would win a tie vs PFW, so can only get the 5 or 6 seed, likely 6. -PFW has locked up the 7. -WIU can win the 8-seed with.... well, I don't actually care, so.... Updated this post to correct it....
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Post by Yotes on Feb 27, 2020 20:27:08 GMT -6
Don't pretend to be any good at predicting something detailed if you don't understand what's going on.
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