|
Post by gopheryote on Dec 16, 2019 17:39:34 GMT -6
My take: I wasn't feeling great about the WBB team after the first handful of games. They were winning, but just didn't look like they were 'on'. Then it seems like a switch was flipped at some point during the Missouri State game. Since then, the defense is tighter, the lazy passes and silly turnovers have largely disappeared, and a focus and sense of urgency appeared. And it appears they are having fun/smiling again. Maybe all the pre-season pressure was taking its toll. First half of non-con, I would have taken the 2018-19 team to beat this year's team at the same point of the season. I've now flipped that, and would take this year's team to win.
|
|
yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 522
|
Post by yote18 on Dec 16, 2019 21:11:47 GMT -6
My take: I wasn't feeling great about the WBB team after the first handful of games. They were winning, but just didn't look like they were 'on'. Then it seems like a switch was flipped at some point during the Missouri State game. Since then, the defense is tighter, the lazy passes and silly turnovers have largely disappeared, and a focus and sense of urgency appeared. And it appears they are having fun/smiling again. Maybe all the pre-season pressure was taking its toll. First half of non-con, I would have taken the 2018-19 team to beat this year's team at the same point of the season. I've now flipped that, and would take this year's team to win. I think the Missouri state loss came at an opportune time. It sucks to lose, but if I had to choose I’d pick them again to be the ones. Like you said since then they’ve been so much more aware and are back to the team we saw last season. I’m really excited to see them take on SC now, it’s gonna be a tough one but I know the Yotes will put a scare into to them and fight till the end.
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Dec 18, 2019 14:21:59 GMT -6
Warren Nolan and Massey Ratings have interesting current predictions for the Summit Men's finish. There are only one or two non-con games left for each team. Warren Nol. |
| Massey | | Team | W/L | Team | W/L | ORU | 13-3 | USD | 12-4 | NDSU | 12-4 | SDSU | 12-4 | USD | 11-5 | ORU | 11-5 | PFW | 11-5 | NDSU | 10-6 | UND | 10-6 | Omaha | 10-6 | SDSU | 8-8 | UND | 6-10 | Omaha | 4-12 | PFW | 6-10 | WIU | 2-14 | WIU | 1-15 | Den | 1-15 | Den | 1-15 |
What a cluster. The only agreement is on the bottom two teams.
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Dec 18, 2019 14:37:20 GMT -6
Here's the predictions for the women's teams: Warren N. |
| Massey | | team | w/l | team | w/l | USD | 16-0 | USD | 15-1 | SDSU | 13-3 | SDSU | 15-1 | UND | 13-3 | UND | 9-7 | Denver | 10-6 | Denver | 9-7 | ORU | 6-10 | ORU | 9-7 | WIU | 6-10 | WIU | 9-7 | Omaha | 5-11 | NDSU | 4-12 | NDSU | 2-14 | Omaha | 2-14 | PFW | 1-15 | PFW | 0-16 |
The order is pretty consistent, but the win totals are all over the place for a couple of teams. North Dakota is hard to read right now.
|
|
|
Post by captaincoyote on Dec 19, 2019 13:36:29 GMT -6
So combining the two systems, it looks like: Men ORU 12-4 USD - 11-5 NDSU - 11-5 SDSU - 10-6 PFW - 8-8 OMAHA - 7-9 WIU - 1-15 DENVER - 1-15
Women USD - 15-1 SDSU - 14-2 UND - 11-5 DENVER - 9-7 ORU - 7-9 WIU - 7-9 OMAHA - 3-13 NDSU - 3-13 PFW - 0-16
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Dec 19, 2019 15:16:14 GMT -6
So combining the two systems, it looks like: Men ORU 12-4 USD - 11-5 NDSU - 11-5 SDSU - 10-6 PFW - 8-8 UND - 8-8OMAHA - 7-9 WIU - 1-15 DENVER - 1-15 WomenUSD - 15-1 SDSU - 14-2 UND - 11-5 DENVER - 9-7 ORU - 7-9 WIU - 7-9 OMAHA - 3-13 NDSU - 3-13 PFW - 0-16 Nice work, but you forgot UND. That doesn't look too far off. Four close teams at the top of the men's. One upset loss for the Yote women. I'll project three losses for the Jacks, and four for Denver. I'd still put ORU higher, maybe 5 losses. UND will be lower than that. Maybe 9-7 for them.
|
|
|
Post by gopheryote on Dec 19, 2019 19:34:53 GMT -6
Warren Nolan and Massey Ratings have interesting current predictions for the Summit Men's finish. There are only one or two non-con games left for each team. Warren Nol. |
| Massey |
| Team | W/L | Team | W/L | ORU | 13-3 | USD | 12-4 | NDSU | 12-4 | SDSU | 12-4 | USD | 11-5 | ORU | 11-5 | PFW | 11-5 | NDSU | 10-6 | UND | 10-6 | Omaha | 10-6 | SDSU | 8-8 | UND | 6-10 | Omaha | 4-12 | PFW | 6-10 | WIU | 2-14 | WIU | 1-15 | Den | 1-15 | Den | 1-15 |
What a cluster. The only agreement is on the bottom two teams. The differences for PFW and SDSU are pretty wild. I don't know what about PFW's season to date would lead anyone to think they are going 11-5 in SL, so Massey seems to make more sense to me. I initially thought Warren Nolen was nuts about SDSU getting to 12 SL wins, but then noticed their schedule quirk: they won't play a team with a winning record until Jan 19 at SCSC. So maybe?
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Dec 19, 2019 21:28:33 GMT -6
Yeah, I think both polls will even out by the end. I know Massey uses last year's data at first, then gradually phase it out. That could be the difference right now.
Bottom line is that no teams have really pulled away yet. Parity city. I'm hoping we end up being that team when we get Simpson healthy.
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Dec 23, 2019 12:25:59 GMT -6
Now that the non-conference is done, here is where Summit WBB is at, from an RPI standpoint: Rnk | Conference | Leader | RPI | 1 | PAC 12 | Oregon State | 5 | 2 | Big 10 | Northwestern | 18 | 3 | ACC | Florida State | 11 | 4 | SEC | South Carolina | 6 | 5 | Big 12 | Kansas | 44 | 6 | Big East | De Paul | 8 | 7 | MVC | Loyola-Chicago | 80 | 8 | Ivy League | Brown | 293 | 9 | AAC | U Conn | 1 | 10 | MAC | Buffalo | 72 | 11 | A-10 | Duquesne | 95 | 12 | WCC | Gonzaga | 7 | 13 | Patriot | Colgate | 69 | 14 | C-USA | Old Dominion | 59 | 15 | A-Sun | FGCU | 32 | 16 | Colonial | James Madison | 40 | 17 | Summit | South Dakota | 22 | 18 | Horizon | Cleveland St | 132 | 19 | Big Sky | Southern UT | 169 | 20 | Sun Belt |
| | 21 | OVC |
| | 22 | Southern |
| | 23 | MWC |
| | 24 | MAAC |
| | 25 | Big West |
| | 26 | Southland |
| | 27 | SWAC |
| | 28 | Big South |
| | 29 | America East |
| | 30 | Northeast |
| | 31 | MEAC |
| | 32 | WAC |
|
|
The highest finish for the Summit in WBB was 11th, I think. 15 is average, 18 is poor. We are not going to get much help in RPI this year, unfortunately. Warren Nolan is predicting we sweep the Summit, but still end up with an RPI of 50. I think an at-large is still possible with our resume at #50, but certainly not guaranteed. 40 would be much much better.
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Dec 23, 2019 13:12:41 GMT -6
Here's a team-by team rundown of Summit current/predicted RPI and non-conference performance. Pred RPI | Curr RPI | Team | W/L | SOS | Best win | worst Loss | 50 | 22 | USD | 10-2 | 49 | #14 Creighton | #6 South Car | 98 | 120 | SDSU | 7-6 | 85 | #73 Notre Dame | #34 Drake | 102 | 104 | UND | 7-3 | 238 | #141 Valpo | #192 SMU | 204 | 278 | Denver | 5-7 | 236 | #161 N Colorado | #225 UMKC | 269 | 270 | Omaha | 3-8 | 149 | #225 UMKC | #253 E Illinois | 270 | 230 | WIU | 3-7 | 154 | #156 SEMO | #253 E Illinois | 274 | 218 | ORU | 3-8 | 92 | #136 Wichita St | #258 Houst Bap | 302 | 287 | NDSU | 1-9 | 114 | #318 New Hamp | #189 Northeastern | 338 | 321 | PFW | 2-9 | 245 | #325 UIC | #294 SIUE |
My takes:1. USD and SDSU have once again pushed the envelope with scheduling tough. SDSU is having a slow start, and likely a down year. 2. out of the teams I would have put into the 2nd tier at the beginning of the year, Oral Roberts and WIU challenged themselves with schedule, and Denver did not. ORU has had a hard time getting a signature win, though. Not sure why they are struggling. The Houston Baptist loss was bad. Same with WIU. Denver should have done better against that schedule. 3. UND was a wildcard going into this season. I thought they would be worse, but it looks like they might be better. It's hard to gauge with their very weak schedule. Will be interesting to see how they do in-conference. 4. Omaha and NDSU both have relatively tough schedules, given the low expectations of their squads. For these bottom teams, It would actually have been better if they had scheduled a little lighter and just won a few more games. The RPI works both ways. You do have to consider potential W/L record, too. Losing all your games doesn't help the collective RPI.
|
|
|
Post by gopheryote on Dec 29, 2019 8:30:32 GMT -6
Well, this is interesting, and a picture of how the SL MBB looks going into conference play. Warren Nolan predicts a team (ORU) who has 3 D1 wins (over a 0, 1, and 6 win teams) to go 16-0 in conference play as of today.
|
|
|
Post by usdcoyote on Dec 29, 2019 19:41:07 GMT -6
Noah Friedel had 28 points in his summit league debut at Omaha, but UNO was able to hold on for a 3 point win. Sure hope the players we did offer scholarships to pan out for us.
|
|
yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 522
|
Post by yote18 on Dec 31, 2019 0:22:16 GMT -6
Well, this is interesting, and a picture of how the SL MBB looks going into conference play. Warren Nolan predicts a team (ORU) who has 3 D1 wins (over a 0, 1, and 6 win teams) to go 16-0 in conference play as of today. Also worth noting is that Warren Nolan now has the USD men finishing 8-8 in conference and 15-13 overall.
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Jan 2, 2020 9:09:06 GMT -6
I was curious about why ORU's women's team had been under-performing so far.
Apparently their star guard, Maya Mayberry, hasn't been playing for a reason that hasn't been disclosed to the public. Could be medical or personal reasons, who knows? One of the posters at the ORU fan board suggested she could be sandbagging in order to have an extra season playing with her younger sister, who will be on campus next year. I sincerely hope that is not the reason. Selfish, if true. Her father is an assistant coach there, so I'm sure whatever the reason is, it is endorsed by the staff.
Jentry Holt, a 6'-3" grad transfer Center from Oklahoma State, has also not been playing. I don't know what the reason was there either, but her absence was likely felt in their lackluster non-conference showing. She did finally play at their most recent game vs. Rogers State. Her stat line looks good:
11 points/ 4 reb/ 1 asst/ 0 TO/ 1 steal/ 1 block
5/7 FG (71.4%)
I think that if Mayberry doesn't come back that will be a big loss, but they have a number of good shooting guards to fill in. Holt could be a game-changer for them, as Sjerven is for us. Don't sleep on them, but I'm not as bullish on them pulling big upsets this year without Mayberry.
They play tonight at Frost, so I guess we will find out what they look like with Holt in a hurry.
|
|
|
Post by kiyoat on Jan 2, 2020 9:14:29 GMT -6
The UND women just beat Denver at Denver in a shoot-out, 90-82. Looks like they are a bona-fide contender. Better start paying attention to what is going on up in Grand Forks.
|
|