Rabbits Game

[kiyoat]

While I wouldn't advocate looking ahead for the players, .... I'm not going to wait until Friday to start this thread.  The game is too important. 

Important as one of what we locally call a "big three" sport. 

Important as a rivalry game. 

Important as the biggest hurdle to sweeping the conference, and maintaining our RPI and national ranking.

Important for bragging rights that will affect competition for local recruits, fans and media coverage in a state that actually values women's basketball.

Not only will this game be important, it should be quite entertaining, as the two best teams in the league battle for supremacy.  The Yotes should be favored at home, but the outcome is far from predetermined.  AJ and Coach P are now well-acquainted with each other, as are the players. 

I'm expecting a bit of a chess match, and likely a very physical game.  A backyard brawl between cousins and neighbors.  Players will foul out.  Fans will boo.  Coaches will lose their $h!t.  Assistants and players will use hand-signals to get plays in because of the volume.  All in all, a good day for basketball.

[yote18]

This game will be really intense as it always is, even though state is having a rougher year than normal we know that they’ll come ready to play. I know many of us carry a dislike of the bunnies(I do) but if it weren’t for their higher level of competition i don’t think we’d be at the level we’re at. Personally I wish we had 2 more teams like SDSU in our conference(I know wishful thinking). Winning by 20+ is fun but with SDSU you never really know the outcome until the final buzzer. You add that with the rivalry and that’s what makes college hoops so fun in SD.

[Coyote Fan]

SDSU is kind of in the position that USD is usually in. They are now the under dog and it is far from a given that the Coyotes will win the Summit regular season or the post season tourney. The Jacks are getting better with each game for the most part. USD has kind of been in cruise control and not really having to come up with their best game lately. The Yotes need to hold home court and make SDSU have to return the favor at home to get things tied back up again.

[kiyoat]

State has definitely gotten better as the season has worn on, but I'd argue that the Yotes have as well.  Granted, the competition level hasn't been as challenging as the non-conference, but I think they are playing at a very high level right now.  

State has had an elite defense, and has now improved their offense.  The Yotes have had an elite offense, and have now improved their defense.

[kiyoat]

State has gone from being the worst free-throw and 3-point shooting team in the conference, to one of the best. In conference play they are shooting 36.4% from the arc, the best in the league. I'm not sure how that has happened, but numbers don't lie.

[Men's League Waterboy]

State’s not going to have many (if any) spots where they have the advantage in this one. They’re well coached, big and physical though so I’d imagine they’re going to do all they can to turn it into a slugfest.

To be honest, I wish they had Selland. A Burckhard/Larson/Selland vs. Sjerven/Duffy/Arens matchup makes this one a lot more interesting in my opinion.. If State can somehow keep it in the 60s and hit a few timely 3s they’ve got a shot. But that’s going to be a tall order.

But it’s a rivalry game and while the Jacks are obviously a less talented offensive team than they have been in a long time, I think they’re as good defensively as they’ve ever been. Somebody gets hot for them and it could get fun in a hurry.

[GoYotes]

A few random SDSU thoughts:
- I wouldn't be real surprised to see Selland play, but my guess is that they will hold her out until the game later in the season at the aged Frost Arena
- What effect will Bultsma have on the game? Her play this year in conference has to have far exceeded the expectations of even those who most ardently drink the blue kool-aid
- Will Cascio-Jensen get called for carrying the ball? I know a lot of people push the limit on this, but she practically tucks the ball under her arm as she dribbles

[kiyoat]

Here's a comparison on conference-only stats.  since the Jacks have played 5 games, and USD only 4, I'll only use game-normalized stats.

stat	SDSU	USD
points	77.4	84.8
FG%	47.6	48.2
3PT%	36.4	32.9
FT%	78.4	76.6
3P/gm	7.2	6.5
Reb marj	+4.8	+10.0
TO marj	+2.0	+10.7
Asst/TO	1.47	1.44
P Fouls	12.8	15.3
Def points	57.6	52.8
Def FG%	32.9	34.2
Def 3PT%	30.8	24.7
Steals	6.2	10.0
Blocks	6.8	3.3
TO forced	14.8	22.0

Two teams that are at the top of most stat categories in the conference.  Similar in many ways, but quite different in others.  State is a post-led team that has been shooting well lately.  The Yotes are a guard-led team with good post presence.  Both teams have good defense, but do it differently.  The Yotes create steals and turnovers at a high rate.  The Jacks block shots.  Both teams have excellent assist-turnover rates, but for different reasons.  The Jacks hold onto the ball well, and the Yotes force turnovers well.

It should make for a balanced chess match. 

With that having been said, .... I like our chances of disrupting their guards, forcing more turnovers than they are used to.  Despite their great post play, I can see us getting their posts in foul trouble, too.  Even if it goes both ways and we both have starting posts on the bench, I like our chances in that scenario.  I think our depth and free-throw shooting will act as a safety net, if we need it to.

[kiyoat]

Jan 14, 2020 14:29:48 GMT -6 GoYotes said:

...
- Will Cascio-Jensen get called for carrying the ball? I know a lot of people push the limit on this, but she practically tucks the ball under her arm as she dribbles

I hadn't paid any attention to that.  Interesting.  RCJ and the Jacks as a whole have very low turnover numbers, and this could be a factor.  If it doesn't get called, I suppose its as legal as anything else.

[gopheryote]

Inspired by kiyoat, I was curious if there was something to shine light on SDSU's recent jump up in scoring, and found this:

SDSU pts vs. Opp avg.
UNO +3
ORU +0
WIU -3
DU -3
PFW +17

Opp pts vs. SDSU avg.
UNO -7
ORU -13
WIU -12
DU +22
PFW +12

In short, the first group indicates that with 1 exception (PFW), SDSU's scoring is in line/slightly below what their opponents give up. In other words, it is possible - if not likely - that their increase in scoring is a reflection of playing teams who are not good at defense. They are just scoring what the other team gives up to everyone. The second group indicates that as their scoring increases, so does the points they give up. Maybe DU/PFW were able to speed the game up a bit, rather than just SDSU being more efficient.

Here is USD's:

USD pts vs. Opp avg.
WIU +18
PFW -19
DU +15
UNO +12

Opp pts vs. USD avg.
WIU +12
PFW -12
DU +8
UNO -9

For the first group, it appears USD had an outlier game vs. PFW, since they scored more than the opponents average by over double digits in the other three games. I don't really see a trend in the second group, other than to note the PFW game offset from the first group.

[gopheryote]

Bonus stat: Obviously, the first 5 haven't played much in the 4th qtr in SL play. But who would have guessed that Korngable, Sjerven, and Frederick are all averaging 17 minutes/game in conference play?

[projectbadass]

Jan 14, 2020 14:29:48 GMT -6 GoYotes said:

A few random SDSU thoughts:
- I wouldn't be real surprised to see Selland play, but my guess is that they will hold her out until the game later in the season at the aged Frost Arena
- What effect will Bultsma have on the game? Her play this year in conference has to have far exceeded the expectations of even those who most ardently drink the blue kool-aid
- Will Cascio-Jensen get called for carrying the ball? I know a lot of people push the limit on this, but she practically tucks the ball under her arm as she dribbles

1. Rumor is that Selland may take a medical redshirt this year.  I think she's played in the same number of games that Macy Miller did when she got her medical redshirt. I wouldn't expect to see Selland in this one.

2. Bultsma has really surprised me with her play this year.  At the beginning of the year, she didn't get a whole lot of playing time.  Once Theisen was lost for the year Bultsma stepped in and has made a huge impact recently.  However, she still has some obvious physical limitations.  She doesn't run the floor well and against a team that likes to push the ball, she can be the weak link.  I'm really not sure what to expect from her in this game.  

3.  Interesting.  I've never noticed that before.

[kiyoat]

Jan 15, 2020 8:00:29 GMT -6 projectbadass said:

Jan 14, 2020 14:29:48 GMT -6 GoYotes said:

A few random SDSU thoughts:
- I wouldn't be real surprised to see Selland play, but my guess is that they will hold her out until the game later in the season at the aged Frost Arena
- What effect will Bultsma have on the game? Her play this year in conference has to have far exceeded the expectations of even those who most ardently drink the blue kool-aid
- Will Cascio-Jensen get called for carrying the ball? I know a lot of people push the limit on this, but she practically tucks the ball under her arm as she dribbles

1. Rumor is that Selland may take a medical redshirt this year.  I think she's played in the same number of games that Macy Miller did when she got her medical redshirt. I wouldn't expect to see Selland in this one.

2. Bultsma has really surprised me with her play this year.  At the beginning of the year, she didn't get a whole lot of playing time.  Once Theisen was lost for the year Bultsma stepped in and has made a huge impact recently.  However, she still has some obvious physical limitations.  She doesn't run the floor well and against a team that likes to push the ball, she can be the weak link.  I'm really not sure what to expect from her in this game.  

3.  Interesting.  I've never noticed that before.

Interesting, thanks for the insights!  I wonder if Selland will be getting surgery in the off-season, assuming her foot issues are chronic.  She is a special local player.  Would be a shame for such a small thing to derail what should be a great college career.

On RCJ, I looked back through the Rabbits' twitter site, looking for short clips that illustrate this, and came up empty.  Mostly what I see from her is some smart, crisp passing and good handles.  She is a solid PG. 

Admittedly, I haven't been able to watch many State games this year, but looking through those clips, I was impressed with the Jacks' ball movement.  Quick and decisive passes.  Granted, what I am seeing in those selected clips is just the highlights.  The eye test and the stats point to a good ball control team, though.

[Yotes]

If anyone wants a couple extra tickets to either the women's or men's game let me know. Not going to be able to make it with the blizzard rolling through.

[gopheryote]

I'm really curious how the coaches play this one. As cityleaguesniper points out, SDSU will not have many match ups in their favor, so conventional wisdom would be to ugly it up and dare the refs to call a million fouls. But they have scored 86-100-99 in the past three games, so I don't think they will slow it down or limit possessions. I'm sure they will feed the post to try to get Sjerven and Frederick in foul trouble, but am not sure what else to expect.
Should be fun - hope the weather holds so people can be there.