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Post by yoteforever on Mar 11, 2020 7:52:19 GMT -6
Selection show date: Monday the 16th at 6 pm cst. Network: ESPN
Thoughts:
In my opinion the jersey just got changed. We are no longer the hunted, we are the hunters. We’ve had a bullseye on our back for several weeks avoided getting shot. SDSU gave us their best shot and came up a little short. They are a good team, well coached, with big following. We beat them 3 times. Very very difficult thing to do. Now we go on the offensive. Mindset changes. We start hunting.
There’s a lot of talk on seeding. I’ve been thinking about this and although I haven’t watched the so called “elite” programs play this winter a lot, I have watched some. Outside of Baylor and South Carolina, I don’t know that there’s many more teams that could stifle our team. Beat them? Yes. Stifle? No. So that also means we can beat them as well. I think we honestly have an outside ( punchers chance ) of an Elite 8 appearance.
If I’m correct, then what’s the best seed to have? There’s a lot of discussion we are a 6 seed. I like that. Here’s why. That means we open with an 11 seed. Someone ranked 41-44. Winnable game. Assuming we win that and favored teams win, we would then have a 3 seed. If I’m correct in above assumptions that once you get past say the top 4 seeds, then things balance out pretty quick. A 3 seed is a dang good team, but winnable. Our mindset is we are the hunters. We play with ZERO pressure other than normal nerves, but not like the pressure they had yesterday in beating SDSU a third time in one year plus not beating them in a Summit final ever. That 800 lb gorilla is off their back.
Back to 3 seed. Winnable game in my mind, but would have to play great. We can do that. So here’s the rational on why 6 seed trumps 4 or 5 seed. IF ( big IF I know ) we knock off 3 seed we then would face a 2 seed. Again, probably a quicker and slightly more talented team, but not super elite. The choke collar is on that team, not the Coyotes. The longer the game plays out close, the tighter the collar gets. If the coaches are correct in the polls, and they think we truly are a #12 team, then it’s realistic to at least build an argument we can indeed beat a 2 seed. IF you win that game, you are in the ELITE 8. However, if you are a 4 or 5 seed, then round 3 means you play a 1 seed. Chances go way down at that point. Certainly nothing to be ashamed of obviously, just far less likely.
I’m totally an OGAAT guy, but laying it out there for discussion.
It’s been one helluva season. These gals are dynamite.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Mar 11, 2020 8:11:51 GMT -6
i believe there is no reason we should totally give up on the possibility of that magical 4 seed and being at home. i am putting the odds at 25%. why is mid major gonzaga almost a lock at one point but the coyotes arent? has any team outside the top 5 in the country had a resume that includes only 2 losses and both to very good teams. sure the Strength of schedule may not be quite as good but do consider that margin of victory as well. there is pretty much nothing else the coyotes could do. call me crazy as most do but with a straight face i would give the Yotes a 3 seed. tell me there are 12 teams that have a more impressive season than the yotes. if you consider how the yotes have played the schedule there were given that is what i think they deserve. i do think the 6 is very likely and agree it would be a very nice spot to be in.
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Post by sdyotefan on Mar 11, 2020 8:18:09 GMT -6
This team can play with anyone if they play one of their better games and I'll tell you why. I watched the South Carolina game when the Lady Coyotes played them on in SC. The Yotes lost by 13 and SC threw in a 71 foot heave at the end of the first half that swished and obviously that is a 1 in 150 shot. They also scored a two point jumper with 1 second on the play clock and there might have been another time expiring basket but can't remember for sure. They tried really hard with their starters to beat us bad but couldn't. They got us down 20 but the Yotes clawed back. SC has beaten most other teams by 20+. So there's definitely reason to be optimistic but obviously OGAAT!
Go Yotes!!!
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Post by golfingyote on Mar 11, 2020 8:45:16 GMT -6
I actually agree with CF that you could make an argument that we have a better resume than Gonzaga. In my mind their loss to St. Marys should put us ahead of them comparatively. They do have the head to head win over Missouri state, but we have the Ohio State W which looks good at this moment. Really splitting hairs on 3-6 seeds in general. The bottom of our conference being so bad and some of our non conference teams plummeting(Missouri, Coppin state...woof) hurts a bit from an RPI perspective. We are 14 in the women's Massey rating and 11 in the coaches poll.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 11, 2020 9:10:05 GMT -6
I actually agree with CF that you could make an argument that we have a better resume than Gonzaga. In my mind their loss to St. Marys should put us ahead of them comparatively. They do have the head to head win over Missouri state, but we have the Ohio State W which looks good at this moment. Really splitting hairs on 3-6 seeds in general. The bottom of our conference being so bad and some of our non conference teams plummeting(Missouri, Coppin state...woof) hurts a bit from an RPI perspective. We are 14 in the women's Massey rating and 11 in the coaches poll. Two reasons we won't get a 4-seed or better: RPI and Vermillion. If the hosting were in Sioux Falls, I suppose that might happen, but never in Vermillion. Remember that the selection committee looks primarily at the RPI, not the AP or Coaches polls. We are currently #26, up from #30 recently. If they went strictly by RPI, #25-28 would get a 7-seed, #29-32 is an 8-seed. They don't STRICTLY go by RPI, but they lean on it very heavily. The fact that Charlie Creme has had us as a 6-seed recently probably is a nod to our national ranking, but I don't know how much higher it would get to. I think a 5-seed is the absolute ceiling with the "Summit League RPI Anchor" around our necks. I think that would be fantastic. The Great '09 Jacks team got a 7-seed. The great '19 Jacks team got a 6-seed. I think a 5-seed would be historical, and would put us in a great position. Hell, a 6-seed would be cool, too. 7-seed might be the basement.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Mar 11, 2020 9:13:38 GMT -6
as much as many of us despise the summit tourney and how it has seemed to favor the jacks that same experience may actually help the Yotes if they are a 6 seed playing a 3 seed in enemy territory. they know what it is like to play in a tough environment. honestly playing a 3 seed on their floor couldnt be all that much worse than the uphill battle they face is sioux falls every year.
in my mind we need to hope for great things but also take baby steps in just simply getting one win at the tourney first. the rest can be gravy.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Mar 11, 2020 9:19:18 GMT -6
kiyote,
why would vermillion hurt? i get the rpi argument but this program has a very good history of post season attedance and there would be a great chance of a sellout if it was at the SCSC. how many past hosts have gone over or under the 6K mark in attedance? just a curious question. i would feel sorry for any team that would have to endure what the SCSC would bring. with the small feel to the arena it would be crazier and louder than the summit tourney.
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olifer
Sophomore Member
Posts: 184
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Post by olifer on Mar 11, 2020 9:31:50 GMT -6
kiyote, why would vermillion hurt? i get the rpi argument but this program has a very good history of post season attedance and there would be a great chance of a sellout if it was at the SCSC. how many past hosts have gone over or under the 6K mark in attedance? just a curious question. i would feel sorry for any team that would have to endure what the SCSC would bring. with the small feel to the arena it would be crazier and louder than the summit tourney. Unless I'm mistaken, Vermillion doesn't have enough hotel rooms to host a first round. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 11, 2020 9:48:32 GMT -6
kiyote, why would vermillion hurt? i get the rpi argument but this program has a very good history of post season attedance and there would be a great chance of a sellout if it was at the SCSC. how many past hosts have gone over or under the 6K mark in attedance? just a curious question. i would feel sorry for any team that would have to endure what the SCSC would bring. with the small feel to the arena it would be crazier and louder than the summit tourney. Unless I'm mistaken, Vermillion doesn't have enough hotel rooms to host a first round. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I don't know the exact requirements, but it is mainly hotels and airports. There is a minimum number of rooms, minimum quality of hotel, and minimum number of hotels (teams have to be in separate ones). Also, the distance of the hotel to the arena is a factor. Sioux Falls meets the women's requirement, but not the men's, if I'm not mistaken. Vermillion wouldn't meet either. The size of airport matters, as well.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 11, 2020 10:36:30 GMT -6
There will always be comparisons to the Jacks' legacy in the Tournament, and rightfully so, but I'd like to just point out a couple of things:
Wins in the tournament are a huge accomplishment. Absolutely. The Jacks have more wins there than any other team in Summit history (4). They have also been there the most (9 appearances, 13 games). Upset tournament wins are probably the most impressive and memorable. This has happened exactly three times in Summit League history
1998 12-seed YSU -beat 5-seed Memphis -91-80 2016 12-seed SDSU beat 5-seed Miami ---74-71 2019 6-seed SDSU -beat 3-seed Syracuse 75-64
So here's my point: While the Jacks' record is certainly impressive, I feel like there is some kind of expectation that we somehow won't measure up if we can't get to the Sweet 16 from the 6-seed position this year. That is hogwash. An upset win is really difficult to achieve. The Jacks have only done it twice in 13 games. They have lost 8 times as an underdog, and once as a favorite. This will only be our third trip, and the first as a heavy favorite for round 1.
Do I think this team is capable of getting to the Sweet 16? You bet. I won't be disappointed if they don't. Leave the "all-time-great" discussion for the off-season, when we have nothing better to do. This group has already broken plenty of precedents, set plenty of records and won all of our admiration. They have cemented their legacy. Let's just enjoy the ride.
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Post by hoopsmom on Mar 11, 2020 10:38:40 GMT -6
The required hotels have to be within 25 or 30 miles (I can’t remember). Sioux City is close enough but just barely. however, they also look at certain amenities that need to be present in the hotels. One hotel for each of the four teams, and one hotel for the tournament administration. Sioux Falls would work, but the atenas are booked that weekend. This was laid out on one of the podcasts about two weeks ago.
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Post by elcoyote on Mar 11, 2020 10:49:26 GMT -6
Getting away from tourney stuff for the moment: I sit in the first row of the upper deck about at midcourt for the tourney, so I have a some what unique perspective than many of you on happenings in the lower bowl. It was very noticeable from the very first game on how much more red was seated down there this year than in the past. Big shout out to Mike West for that effort. Granted, much of it was in the corners, but even in the middle sections more and more red is starting to pop up. I'm not sure if red doesn't outnumber blue upstairs, at least in the section I'm in. As for noise, I couldn't tell one bit whose fan base was louder when their respective team was on a run. It was just as loud for a Coyote basket, rebound, etc as it was for any SDSU positive from the bunny people. That worm seems to have turned. Going forth I just don't see how any coyote fan can whine about how blue fans take over the Denny in games against us and that they have a "home court advantage". Looking at the results of the men's tourney the past two seasons, playing in Sioux Falls doesn't seem to make that big a difference anyway. As for the women's results, the Coyotes and the Jacks are just that much better than everyone else and it's not even particularly close. NDSU seems to be making progress and maybe the new coaches at UNO and UND can get those teams to be more competitive. I sure hope so because once we got into conference play this season, with the exception of SDSU, the women's games got to be pretty ho hum affairs.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 11, 2020 11:09:48 GMT -6
Getting away from tourney stuff for the moment: I sit in the first row of the upper deck about at midcourt for the tourney, so I have a some what unique perspective than many of you on happenings in the lower bowl. It was very noticeable from the very first game on how much more red was seated down there this year than in the past. Big shout out to Mike West for that effort. Granted, much of it was in the corners, but even in the middle sections more and more red is starting to pop up. I'm not sure if red doesn't outnumber blue upstairs, at least in the section I'm in. As for noise, I couldn't tell one bit whose fan base was louder when their respective team was on a run. It was just as loud for a Coyote basket, rebound, etc as it was for any SDSU positive from the bunny people. That worm seems to have turned. Going forth I just don't see how any coyote fan can whine about how blue fans take over the Denny in games against us and that they have a "home court advantage".... I sat in the upper deck as well, and I concur with all of your statements. I think it was probably 55% red in the upper deck. Maybe 35% to 40% red in the lower. So probably about 40% overall red. Certainly far better than the approximately 25% we had seen in the past. The worm has turned, indeed. No need to fear "Frost South". Agree that the volume was about equal. I'd say the red volume was actually greater at the beginning, but the blue got loud when they realized they had a chance in the game. If there was any Jacks advantage in that game, it came from A.J.'s coaching, not the crowd. I'd add that our students and band showed up really well. props to them as well as the administration for their efforts busing and feeding those kids. Our band is fantastic, and filled with music majors. A D-1 quality band. That's worth quite a bit in "home court" atmosphere IMHO.
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Post by Yotes on Mar 11, 2020 13:07:07 GMT -6
Can't help but notice the rapidly growing number of sporting events that have been impacted by coronavirus the last few days. Lots of talk about sporting events in empty facilities, and I saw that the CBI has been cancelled over the uncertainty. Really hope this doesn't impede our fans from travelling with the team.
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Post by usdguy99 on Mar 11, 2020 14:49:38 GMT -6
Can't help but notice the rapidly growing number of sporting events that have been impacted by coronavirus the last few days. Lots of talk about sporting events in empty facilities, and I saw that the CBI has been cancelled over the uncertainty. Really hope this doesn't impede our fans from travelling with the team. It has happened...using my phone so not able to embed the story. Team personnel and family only.
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