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Post by gopheryote on Jan 18, 2021 14:11:19 GMT -6
I wish they would break out the components so we could see what moves the needle (maybe that exists somewhere). What seems evident is that the efficiency rating pre UMKC vs post UMKC pulled the Yotes up quite a ways. Since that is a function of their style of play (vs. relying on 3s or a single scorer), it seems like they will be able to keep that up, and overcome some of those early games where they were still finding a groove.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 18, 2021 14:49:21 GMT -6
I wish they would break out the components so we could see what moves the needle (maybe that exists somewhere). What seems evident is that the efficiency rating pre UMKC vs post UMKC pulled the Yotes up quite a ways. Since that is a function of their style of play (vs. relying on 3s or a single scorer), it seems like they will be able to keep that up, and overcome some of those early games where they were still finding a groove. Even if they don't, someone might be able to figure it out with mathematical methods. The problem is that they tweak the formula each year, and the women's BB formula is different than the men's because they use data from past seasons to test it and tweak it. We know what elements go into it, just not how they are weighting each element.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2021 15:39:55 GMT -6
I wish they would break out the components so we could see what moves the needle (maybe that exists somewhere). What seems evident is that the efficiency rating pre UMKC vs post UMKC pulled the Yotes up quite a ways. Since that is a function of their style of play (vs. relying on 3s or a single scorer), it seems like they will be able to keep that up, and overcome some of those early games where they were still finding a groove. Even if they don't, someone might be able to figure it out with mathematical methods. The problem is that they tweak the formula each year, and the women's BB formula is different than the men's because they use data from past seasons to test it and tweak it. We know what elements go into it, just not how they are weighting each element. I noticed on the NCAA Men's Basketball NET Ranking, they show the records for games in Quad 1/Quad 2/Quad 3/Quad 4. For the Women's NET ranking they just show the Non-Division 1 games, no Quad breakdown. Why is that? Are they complied differently? www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankingswww.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-net-rankings
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 18, 2021 15:54:30 GMT -6
I don't know why they don't provide that info on the NET ranking on the NCAA site, but the evaluation committees in both sports do look at quadrant W/L. I don't think it is calculated any differently. I'd guess the "team sheets" that are used to evaluate teams are somewhere online. Or maybe they only become available closer to the tournament?
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Post by GoYotes on Jan 18, 2021 16:42:55 GMT -6
The Warren Nolan website has all kinds of statistical info for both MBB & WBB, including NET team sheets. I don't know how close their teams sheets are to those that are used by the NCAA.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 18, 2021 17:18:23 GMT -6
The Warren Nolan website has all kinds of statistical info for both MBB & WBB, including NET team sheets. I don't know how close their teams sheets are to those that are used by the NCAA. Good find. I had checked that site earlier, but it just had last year's data, so I stopped looking. Looks like everything is updated now. The "Nitty Gritty Report" is basically the equivalent of what you see on the NCAA site for the men's NET ranking. It has the quadrant data for all the teams in ranking order: Nitty Gritty Report LINK
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2021 17:36:45 GMT -6
The Warren Nolan website has all kinds of statistical info for both MBB & WBB, including NET team sheets. I don't know how close their teams sheets are to those that are used by the NCAA. Great stuff! Thanks!
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Post by Coyote Fan on Jan 18, 2021 23:15:44 GMT -6
The NET didn't seem to figure out that the Jacks didn't look all that great at Omaha at all. They may have 2 road wins but by the eye test they go down in my book. Omaha isn't very good at all and the Jacks should have beaten them by an average of 20 to 30 points per game.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 25, 2021 9:54:28 GMT -6
1/18/21 Monday NET------------RPI 20 USD------- 38 SDSU49 SDSU------ 89 USD100 NDSU--- 176 NDSU210 Omaha---213 Omaha 211 Denver--- 241 UMKC258 ORU------250 ORU 268 UND------261 WIU 270 WIU------ 291 Denver274 UMKC----318 UND 1/25/21 Monday NET------------RPI 27 USD-------- 61 SDSU43 SDSU------ 91 USD100 NDSU--------------- ----------------- 210 NDSU212 Omaha----221 Omaha 215 Denver----242 Denver 249 WIU-------249 UMKC 268 UND------265 WIU 271 UMKC-----278 ORU 272 ORU------ 310 UND
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 25, 2021 10:07:22 GMT -6
My take on the rankings:
USD - came down a little in the NET for the sin of not beating everyone by 20 points. That's a good correction, I think. #20 was a little artificially high. If both SD teams end up in the 30-40 range, I can live with that. That would put both of us in the conversation for an at-large.
SDSU - huge drop in RPI for the sin of beating some low-RPI conference teams. This is why the RPI sucks so much, and why the RPI punishes mid-majors. If SDSU fans are scratching their heads at USD having the higher NET score, .... just look at the crappy alternative of being ranked #61 in the RPI.
NDSU - huge drop in RPI for losing a game. The NET ranking doesn't move. Interesting. I guess their efficiency scores have kept them treading water. Good for the Summit.
Omaha - holds steady. Their improved defense has been a real boon. They still haven't won a conference game yet, though?
Denver - Suddenly the RPI likes them again. How fickle.
WIU - Big jump in the NET ranking, stays low in RPI. The RPI is blind to anything but the win or loss. They can be a legit team, but have had inconsistency. I agree with the NET.
UND - winless, so naturally very low in RPI. The NET still sees something in them.
ORU - dumped by both polls. But they are 5-2 in conference?
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yote18
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Post by yote18 on Jan 25, 2021 13:26:23 GMT -6
Thanks Kiyoat for posting these! It really helps us kind of see where the rest of the conference is at as a whole.
Also I know its still really early, but I was doing some looking and the bracketology people with espn and CBS sports are both showing USD and SDSU on the brackets. USD is around the 10/11 range on them. Still a lot of season left, but that’s a very encouraging sign as we approach the half way point of conference play. However I’m curious what everyone thinks, whose chances will be most affected by the State/U games in 2 weeks?
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 26, 2021 11:06:50 GMT -6
Thanks Kiyoat for posting these! It really helps us kind of see where the rest of the conference is at as a whole. Also I know its still really early, but I was doing some looking and the bracketology people with espn and CBS sports are both showing USD and SDSU on the brackets. USD is around the 10/11 range on them. Still a lot of season left, but that’s a very encouraging sign as we approach the half way point of conference play. However I’m curious what everyone thinks, whose chances will be most affected by the State/U games in 2 weeks? Charlie Creme just updated his bracketology: www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/women-bracketology-brackets-all-shapes-sizesin the 64-team version, USD is listed as a 9-seed (AQ) playing Bama. SDSU is listed as an 8-seed (at large) playing Florida State. If these seedings held, either team would be considered potential at-large selection. Good News! I don't know if that holds if either team gets upset in the Summit. Also no idea how the W/L of the series in Brookings affects it. I have to guess that the "efficiency" part of the equation might buffer any negative affects from a W/L standpoint, but who knows?
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 26, 2021 12:08:43 GMT -6
Thanks Kiyoat for posting these! It really helps us kind of see where the rest of the conference is at as a whole. Also I know its still really early, but I was doing some looking and the bracketology people with espn and CBS sports are both showing USD and SDSU on the brackets. USD is around the 10/11 range on them. Still a lot of season left, but that’s a very encouraging sign as we approach the half way point of conference play. However I’m curious what everyone thinks, whose chances will be most affected by the State/U games in 2 weeks? My guess: 1. SDSU sweeps USD - SDSU is in for sure, USD has to win SLT 2. Split - Neither team changes their position much, and I think a 1-bid league for the year 3. USD sweeps SDSU - USD is in, SDSU is likely out even if they run the rest of the schedule and have a rematch in SLT. (It would be tough to overcome 3 losses to a non-ranked team.) Assuming SDSU is still ranked next weekend, a USD sweep would give them a couple AP T25 wins, which matters to the committee more than it should. Unfortunately, I don't trust the committee at all, and I can see them discounting SDSU's early-season T25 wins (ISU was COVID related, MSU and Zags are just mid-majors...). I think it is BS, but I can see them not penalizing ISU, and thus not really giving credit to SDSU. The more pressing concern for SDSU, if I say the quiet parts out loud, is that SDSU isn't playing like an at-large team right now, even though they have an at-large resume at the moment. But I don't think there is a ton of confidence that they a) won't lose a road game (or 2) against DU/ORU/NDSU or b) won't get swept by USD.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2021 9:26:48 GMT -6
Only New Mexico in the top 85 NET ranking has played fewer home games than South Dakota. The state of New Mexico is not allowing the Lobos to play at home and they have yet to host a game in their own gym.
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 30, 2021 14:05:48 GMT -6
I'm avoiding work this afternoon, so I tried to get my head around the efficiency ratings, and NET in general. Found some interesting stuff, so if you are bored, keep reading. warrennolan.com/basketballw/2021/stats-adv-offensive-rating has Advanced Stats, and it goes a long way to explain why USD's NET score is high, even without any marquee wins. I'll give USD and SDSU for comparison (don't know how to do a table for all SL): Offense Eff. - USD: 20th, 107.5 pts scored per 100 possessions; SDSU: 68th, 100.1 per 100 Defense Eff. - USD: 42nd, 83.3 pts given up per 100 possessions; SDSU: 83rd, 85.6 per 100 Net (Off minus Def) - USD: 15th; SDSU 52nd I think there is a misconception that blowouts = better efficiency ratings. In fact, it appears to be correlation without causation. The easiest way to see that is to look at pace of play - a team that plays fast can have lots of blowouts without being too efficient. Pace of Play - USD 204th, 70.6 possessions per game; SDSU 249th, 69.5 When you see the pace of play rating, it makes the blowouts USD has had even more impressive. USD plays slow, but wins each possession at a very high level, which results in blowout scores. Again, it isn't running up the score that helps, but on every possession - whether it takes 5 seconds are 28 - are you winning that possession. (It would be interesting to see the efficiency scores by quarter, since the end of the bench has really given up some huge leads.) Also, I found this on the NCAA WBB site: After two seasons of DI men's basketball using the NET, it was tweaked in advance of this season, simplifying it to a two-component system. The first is the Team Value Index, a results-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. This component was an original part of the NET. The other is an efficiency rating, which is adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. So, apparently the location of the game affects both the Team Value Index and the efficiency rating. It stinks that there have been so few home games, but it appears to be helping the NET rating. As a contrast, SDSU's schedule has been home-game dominant, and that is hurting their NET.
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