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Post by gopheryote on Jan 30, 2021 14:13:22 GMT -6
Fun fact: using the ratings above, we can predict the spread of the State/U games: Assume 70 possessions on a neutral court: USD + 5.78 offense USD + 1.61 defense Expected: USD wins by 7.39 points So, then it is just a matter of how many points you give the home team to see who will win next week? If playing at Frost is worth 10 points, then it looks bad for USD...
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 30, 2021 15:44:34 GMT -6
Wow, nice work! Good points on understanding the efficiency ratings.
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Post by elcoyote on Jan 30, 2021 16:02:44 GMT -6
Impressive analysis! Kudos for doing that.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 1, 2021 9:40:12 GMT -6
1/25/21 Monday NET------------RPI 27 USD-------- 61 SDSU43 SDSU------ 91 USD100 NDSU--------------- ----------------- 210 NDSU212 Omaha----221 Omaha 215 Denver----242 Denver 249 WIU-------249 UMKC 268 UND------265 WIU 271 UMKC-----278 ORU 272 ORU------ 310 UND2/1/21 Monday NET------------RPI 25 USD-------- 55 SDSU44 SDSU------ 76 USD122 NDSU--------------- ----------------- 215 NDSU210 Denver---232 Omaha 216 Omaha----244 KC 253 KC--------- 245 Denver256 WIU-------265 WIU 261 UND-------266 ORU 265 ORU-------316 UND
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 1, 2021 9:46:00 GMT -6
My takes:
The most movement was the NET moving KC up, and the RPI continuing to correct USD up.
Overall, both polls are starting to agree more on the order of the teams, but the RPI rates the conference as a whole much lower than the NET. Compare rankings at each level and you see lower ranks across the board in the RPI. Good riddance to that hot garbage! The NET should be the better vehicle for the Summit to get an at-large more consistently.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 2, 2021 15:15:56 GMT -6
Yotes now receiving 3 votes in the AP Poll. Jacks are ranked #23. Perfect time for a win in Frost....
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 8, 2021 9:31:46 GMT -6
2/1/21 Monday NET------------RPI 25 USD-------- 55 SDSU44 SDSU------ 76 USD122 NDSU--------------- ----------------- 215 NDSU210 Denver---232 Omaha 216 Omaha----244 KC 253 KC--------- 245 Denver256 WIU-------265 WIU 261 UND-------266 ORU 265 ORU-------316 UND 2/8/21 Monday NET-------------RPI34 USD--------- 23 SDSU36 SDSU------- 63 USD115 NDSU--------------- ----------------- 202 NDSU211 Omaha----257 Omaha 221 Denver----245 KC 251 UND-------266 ORU 256 WIU-------271 WIU 257 KC---------274 Denver 273 ORU-------299 UND
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 8, 2021 10:08:33 GMT -6
My take on the rankings: USD - came down a little in the NET for the sin of not beating everyone by 20 points. That's a good correction, I think. #20 was a little artificially high. If both SD teams end up in the 30-40 range, I can live with that. That would put both of us in the conversation for an at-large.SDSU - huge drop in RPI for the sin of beating some low-RPI conference teams. This is why the RPI sucks so much, and why the RPI punishes mid-majors. If SDSU fans are scratching their heads at USD having the higher NET score, .... just look at the crappy alternative of being ranked #61 in the RPI.I'm quoting myself from back on January 25th. At this point in time, I'm sure there are some Jacks fans still scratching their heads why the Jacks are not ranked higher in the NET, and thinking that the RPI must be the better system. Or the NET is just crap. While I agree that the Jacks should be ranked higher right now in any poll, I'd caution too much credit given to the RPI for bringing the Jacks back up into the top 25. Even if the Jacks win out the rest of the regular season, we will see their RPI rank slowly backslide as they are forced to play low-RPI teams. The NET rank, OTOH, will either stay put, or even improve slightly as they handily win those games, increasing their net efficiency. At the end of the day, the final NET rankings will be better for all of the Summit, including the top of the league. That's my prediction, anyway. Hold me to it. So do I think the Jacks should be ranked higher? Definitely. Do I think the Jacks are 40 spots better? Hell no. Ask AJ how confident he would be in seeing another 20-point win vs the Yotes in a third (SLT) game. I think both teams should probably be in the 30-40 range, which they are in the NET right now. I'd put the Jacks at #32-33 and the Yotes at #37-38, or something similar. The Jacks are in the driver's seat for a regular season title and #1 seed, both well-earned.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 8, 2021 10:45:29 GMT -6
Team Sheets, Quadrant records: Quadrant records have been an important part of how teams are evaluated for at-large bids, as well as tournament seeding. That will not change this year. What WILL change is what those quadrant records are based on. In the past it was RPI, now it is NET rankings they will use. That makes the two losses in Frost even more of a missed opportunity. Those two losses are considered Q-1 for us, but the two wins are considered Q-2 for the Jacks. This is because it is adjusted for the location (home, road, neutral). Quite frankly, our Quadrant record isn't that impressive now. Our SOS is good, though. I'm not certain of our chances of an at-large. Charlie Creme's next Bracketology might be a good indication. USD Team SheetSDSU Team SheetNitty Gritty table to compare Quadrant records
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 8, 2021 10:59:06 GMT -6
I don't think the Yotes have a shot at an at-large after dropping the two games @ SDSU. Even though their NET is high, to be 'at-large' by definition means losing another game in SLT. Likewise, I think SDSU can drop a couple more games and still get an at-large.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 8, 2021 11:53:41 GMT -6
I don't think the Yotes have a shot at an at-large after dropping the two games @ SDSU. Even though their NET is high, to be 'at-large' by definition means losing another game in SLT. Likewise, I think SDSU can drop a couple more games and still get an at-large. Yeah, you're probably right. It will be interesting to see what the NET vs the RPI will do if the Jacks do drop a couple games. (big if) More likely that both SD teams win out the rest and play again in the championship, but.... anything is possible. NDSU could be a pain in the arse for either team. We at least play them at home, but are likely to have to play them again in the semi-final.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 15, 2021 10:40:49 GMT -6
Thanks Kiyoat for posting these! It really helps us kind of see where the rest of the conference is at as a whole. Also I know its still really early, but I was doing some looking and the bracketology people with espn and CBS sports are both showing USD and SDSU on the brackets. USD is around the 10/11 range on them. Still a lot of season left, but that’s a very encouraging sign as we approach the half way point of conference play. However I’m curious what everyone thinks, whose chances will be most affected by the State/U games in 2 weeks? Charlie Creme just updated his bracketology: www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/women-bracketology-brackets-all-shapes-sizesin the 64-team version, USD is listed as a 9-seed (AQ) playing Bama. SDSU is listed as an 8-seed (at large) playing Florida State. If these seedings held, either team would be considered potential at-large selection. Good News! I don't know if that holds if either team gets upset in the Summit. Also no idea how the W/L of the series in Brookings affects it. I have to guess that the "efficiency" part of the equation might buffer any negative affects from a W/L standpoint, but who knows? www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketologyCreme just updated bracketology this morning. USD still shows winning the conference and getting the auto-bid and a 9-seed. SDSU still shows getting an at-large and an 8-seed. Interesting.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 15, 2021 10:49:24 GMT -6
2/8/21 Monday NET-------------RPI34 USD--------- 23 SDSU36 SDSU------- 63 USD115 NDSU--------------- ----------------- 202 NDSU211 Omaha----257 Omaha 221 Denver----245 KC 251 UND-------266 ORU 256 WIU-------271 WIU 257 KC---------274 Denver 273 ORU-------299 UND 2/15/21 Monday NET-------------RPI34 USD--------- 27 SDSU38 SDSU------- 66 USD107 NDSU--------------- ----------------- 188 NDSU228 WIU-------243 KC 234 Denver--- 261 ORU236 KC---------266 WIU 244 UND-------274 Omaha 258 Omaha----288 UND 263 ORU------- 293 Denver
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 524
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Post by yote18 on Feb 15, 2021 10:50:52 GMT -6
You have it flipped, the bracket shows SDSU being the AQ as an 8 and USD getting the at large as a 9.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 15, 2021 10:55:10 GMT -6
You have it flipped, the bracket shows SDSU being the AQ as an 8 and USD getting the at large as a 9. I don't think so. The ALL CAPS is the AQ teams.
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