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Post by kiyoat on Dec 3, 2020 10:51:23 GMT -6
So after a week of Summit WBB, here are some interesting outcomes:
Upset wins: -SDSU 76 ---------Iowa State 69 (AP #15) Omaha 66 Northern Colorado 64 (preseason #5 BSC) -NDSU 85 -----Northern Iowa 68 (preseason #3 MVC)
Surprisingly competitive losses: USD 71 --South Carolina 81 (AP #1) UND 82 -------Marquette 90 WIU 66 -------Wisconsin 73
Surprising losses: Denver 74 Northern Colorado 75
Quality wins by NDSU and Omaha. Is this the year the Mavs crawl out of the basement? Can Jory Collins improve on his surprising first year? Will Denver fall from the 2nd tier? Will a Brewster-less Hawks improve? Will J.D. and the Leathernecks (great band name) take the 3-seed this season? I'm going to guess "yes" to all the above.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 5, 2020 18:19:42 GMT -6
Wow NDSU just beat Green Bay 59-51. The Bison are getting good in a hurry. It might be important that the Coyotes draw them at home this year. Western Illinois lost to Northern Illinois. I think Western Illinois always tends to get over rated but we will see.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 6, 2020 16:54:56 GMT -6
The Jacks just beat Gonzaga in OT 75-72. Nice! Selland had four fouls in the first half. They will be tough.
NDSU waxed Green Bay in their second back-to-back game. Wow.
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Post by easmus on Dec 6, 2020 20:28:36 GMT -6
I know it will frustrate some Coyote fans, but I do believe that SDSU beating Gonzaga can help us a bit if we’re able to at least split them in Frost. It should increase their RPI and ours.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 6, 2020 23:18:47 GMT -6
i cannot disagree more that SDSU winning is better for USD. the best way for USD to get into the NCAA tourney is to have a weakened jacks team. the small difference in opponents SOS pales in comparison if the Jacks lost all their tough games by 20 or more points. SDSU is the biggest reason for the Yotes not making the NCAA's moreso than a slight uptick in their SOS. if it wasnt for the Jacks the Yotes would cruise to a berth every year. I fet tired of people cheering for the Jacks at the expense of the Coyotes. i want USD to be the bar none best program in the state and that goes for all sports.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 6, 2020 23:27:14 GMT -6
splitting with the jacks in frost but losing in the tourney will not be good enough this year for an at large unless suddenly they schedule a few more tough OOC opponents and get wins. losing to gonzaga made it unlikely for an at large bid if it is a 64 team tourney.
SDSU beating Gonzaga does very little for the Coyotes. it actually makes it even tougher for the yotes to win the Summit touney which is the likely only option this year.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 7, 2020 9:28:03 GMT -6
I know it will frustrate some Coyote fans, but I do believe that SDSU beating Gonzaga can help us a bit if we’re able to at least split them in Frost. It should increase their RPI and ours. Agree, but it's now the "NET" rather than the RPI. I'm not sure it there is a substantial difference, though. It is calculated differently, but the exact formula is not public information. In addition, the women's NET formula will be slightly different than the men's, because they "tweak" it, or "calibrate" it based on the last 10 years of NCAA WBB results. Suffice to say, that SOS still matters a lot, and they will still use the "quadrant" system to manually evaluate teams for at-large selections. Same strategy for us. I think the main difference will be the whole "Net efficiency" stat. (points per possession / opponent's points per possession) They no longer use margin of victory, like they did for the last two years on the men's side. But the net efficiency still provides a reason to win by as many points as possible, I think. They might cap the effect, but with a secret formula, who really knows?
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 7, 2020 9:39:22 GMT -6
splitting with the jacks in frost but losing in the tourney will not be good enough this year for an at large unless suddenly they schedule a few more tough OOC opponents and get wins. losing to gonzaga made it unlikely for an at large bid if it is a 64 team tourney. I agree with this, but an at-large isn't the only reason to have a high RPI/NET score. It's also about seeding in the dance or WNIT.SDSU beating Gonzaga does very little for the Coyotes. it actually makes it even tougher for the yotes to win the Summit touney which is the likely only option this year. I disagree. How does the Jacks' winning or losing to Gonzaga make them any easier or harder for us to beat? That makes zero sense. Unless you are talking about the psychological aspect. In which case I still disagree. Neither the Jacks nor the Yotes will be any more or less intimidated by each other's rankings. Both teams will be tough because they are tough. The number next to their name means very little to the women on the floor when the whistle blows.
That number will mean something to the selection committee assigning seeds, though. So we want the Jacks ranked as high as possible when we beat them.
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Post by easmus on Dec 7, 2020 9:43:14 GMT -6
I just don’t see how State beating Gonzaga directly affects the chances of USD beating State in the SLT. I am not sitting by the radio or tv rooting for State. (I have only done that once that I can remember. It was in 2017 during football and we NEEDED State to beat Illinois State or we wouldn’t make the playoffs. State almost blew it but pulled it out at home with an OT FG. We had lost to ISU and that game likely got us into the field.). I was simply pointing out that there might be a positive due to whatever rating system is being utilized for NCAA purposes. NDSU beating GB should help us too. We can’t always talk about how the other teams in the Summit have to get their programs to be better so the league RPI (or whatever index their using) isn’t so crappy. But that’s also a double edged sword if we lose conference games because the other teams are better.
Now, I do agree that the chances of an at-large bid are going to be daunting this year due to scheduling difficulties because of Covid. You just hope we’ve gotten to the point of having program recognition...although last season’s tournament being cancelled certainly hurt that possibility.
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Post by gopheryote on Dec 7, 2020 9:49:34 GMT -6
Our only path to an at-large - and it is a long shot - is for as many future games to be Quad 1 games and ideally against ranked teams (not part of NET, but perception matters). The only possible Quad 1 games we have will be in Brookings. For the Yotes (doesn't apply to SDSU), Gonzaga will likely stay at Quad 1 game, so being able to be 2-2 (or 2-3 if we lose in SLT) will be better than a lot of other teams. As an example, it is possible (likely?) that SDSU will have only one Quad 1 game this year (@ Missouri State). The Quads: Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75 Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135 Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240 Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 7, 2020 10:02:14 GMT -6
Good point, Gopheryote. Because we play State twice on the road, they only have to be in the top-75 to be considered a "quadrant-1" win(or loss) for us. In the tournament they would have to be ranked in the top-50 to be a Q1 opponent. If they sweep their non-con (certainly possible) they should have a pretty easy road to a high NET ranking.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 7, 2020 22:10:44 GMT -6
It looks like other than the SD2 and NDSU it may very well be another down year for the rest of the Summit Women's hoops.
Western Illinois lost at Indiana State 78-51. That is simply unacceptable so it looks like the Necks are pretty damn over rated. I figured they were but they appear to be vastly over rated.
North Dakota lost at Montana 86-72. The Hawks are just not able to relive their D2 glory days. The best they are is kinda good, but usually it is mediocre for them. They may be slipping into "bad" this year.
If people want to cheer for the Summit teams cheer for them and not South Dakota State. The Jacks have been a thorn in the side for years so maybe it is time they have some down years. How about the Jacks slip into irrelevance which is kind of what I want. I want the Coyotes to dominate the Summit League. I guess maybe I am not a good enough fan to cheer for SDSU to be good so they knock the Coyotes out most years.
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Post by captaincoyote on Dec 7, 2020 22:15:49 GMT -6
I don't care how good SDSU as long as we are better and they don't steal our 'croots.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 7, 2020 22:33:26 GMT -6
I don't care how good SDSU as long as we are better and they don't steal our 'croots. Bingo. When SDSU is really good they tend to get all the coverage which can affect recruiting. What is wrong with them slipping a bit and having their fans get whiney. I didn't want SDSU to just lose to Gonzaga I wanted them to lose by 20 but fat chance of that happening. For the Coyotes to win in the Summit tourney against that team they typically have to be at least 10 points better on a neutral court which they were last year. It would be one thing if the Coyotes dominated the Summit tourney every year to cheer for SDSU but when the Jacks are taking home trophy after trophy in men's and women's it is just a bit hard to cheer for them. Call it sour grapes or whatever but I am a Coyote fan first and foremost and I want the Coyotes to be better than SDSU in everything but unfortunately in the sports that matter usually the Blue and Yellow have a big upper hand.
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Dec 8, 2020 8:21:38 GMT -6
I heard Douple is moving the Summit League Tournament to Brookings this year as well.
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