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Post by kiyoat on Feb 12, 2021 9:13:15 GMT -6
Preview Article: LINKSaturday & Sunday series @ noon / both on ESPN3. Not sure how much analysis I will be doing for this game. Conventional wisdom says "we will be hyper-focused after losing a big game the week before" or "I wouldn't want to be the Hawks playing the Yotes this week", essentially the reverse of the "letdown game" theory. Both statements are essentially fan constructs, though. Teams are either focused or they aren't. Good teams are almost always focused on the opponent in front of them, so the rest of it is just fans and commentators talking IMHO. Although this Hawks team is more talented than their record suggests (especially their forwards), an upset this weekend is not likely. I'm hopeful that this coach does not choose the failed "ugly the game up" strategy that Brewster seemed to employ when playing the Coyotes. I'll be interested to see if we can out-rebound them, as that is one of the Hawks' strengths. I'll also be interested in seeing how long we play starters (if the game is in hand). The NET efficiency is a legitimate concern for this team's at-large hopes. I really dislike the fact that that is a strategy. Predictions: W 77-60 Massey (-17) W 81-61 Warren Nolan R1 (-20) W 83-59 Warren Nolan ELO (-24) |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 12, 2021 10:32:09 GMT -6
From the article:
THE COYOTES
South Dakota (10-5, 6-2 Summit) wraps up its eight-game conference road stretch this weekend. The Coyotes are led in scoring by a trio of seniors – Hannah Sjerven, Chloe Lamb and Liv Korngable – who continue to rank 2-3-4 in the Summit for scoring. Sjerven was named one of 10 semifinalists for the Becky Hammon Mid-Major Player of the Year earlier this week. She's one of five players in the country averaging more than 15 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks per game. Lamb's the top 3-point shooter in the Summit, draining 2.47 triples per game at a clip of .420. Korngable, who will take the floor Saturday for her 100th career game, leads the squad with 3.5 assists per game.
THE FIGHTING HAWKS
North Dakota (2-15, 2-9 Summit) parted ways with head coach Travis Brewster at the end of last year after eight years. Associate head coach Mallory Bernhard was named interim head coach in March of 2020 after spending seven seasons as an assistant at her alma mater. The Fighting Hawks split their last two Summit series with Western Illinois and Denver. North Dakota has been within striking distance for six of its nine league losses, taking three games to overtime. Senior Julia Fleecs leads the squad with 15.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, the only player averaging double-figures for scoring.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 12, 2021 10:47:49 GMT -6
Looking at conference-only stats:
-Hawks shooting .357 FG is the worst mark in the league. They are only allowing .382 FG on defense though. 3rd best behind USD and SDSU.
-From the arc they are shooting a league-worst .270, and are only making 5.5 per game. USD's arc-shooting is not league-leading either.
-Free throws heavily favors USD. We shoot .772 (1st) they shoot .691 (9th)
-This is a matchup of the top 2 rebounding teams in the Summit by a wide margin. USD has a +7.8 rebound margin, UND has +7.5 Should be a physical battle for boards.
-This is also a matchup of the top 2 shot-blocking teams in the Summit by a wide margin. USD is blocking 3.64/game, UND is blocking 3.38/game.
-USD has the best T/O margin and 2nd best A/TO margin, but UND isn't terrible there either. Just average.
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 12, 2021 10:54:53 GMT -6
UND is average in many stats. The main weakness seems to be shooting%, which is a big deal, but any team can get hot on a given afternoon. They won't be pushovers in the paint, so we have to be sharp from midrange and the arc. I have a feeling this will be a low-scoring game for both teams, unless we can get Liv & Chloe hitting a lot of arc shots.
Would love to see a breakout offensive performance for a player not named Hannah, Liv or Chloe.
bold prediction: the Yotes will keep the Hawks under 20 in the first half. I think our defense being solid is probably the most reliable thing to predict in this game.
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Post by captaincoyote on Feb 12, 2021 16:47:02 GMT -6
Looking at conference-only stats: -Hawks shooting .357 FG is the worst mark in the league. They are only allowing .382 FG on defense though. 3rd best behind USD and SDSU. -From the arc they are shooting a league-worst .270, and are only making 5.5 per game. USD's arc-shooting is not league-leading either. -Free throws heavily favors USD. We shoot .772 (1st) they shoot .691 (9th) -This is a matchup of the top 2 rebounding teams in the Summit by a wide margin. USD has a +7.8 rebound margin, UND has +7.5 Should be a physical battle for boards. -This is also a matchup of the top 2 shot-blocking teams in the Summit by a wide margin. USD is blocking 3.64/game, UND is blocking 3.38/game. -USD has the best T/O margin and 2nd best A/TO margin, but UND isn't terrible there either. Just average. So we neutralize the only things they are good at. That's a good sign. Not that I'm worried. |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 13, 2021 10:44:15 GMT -6
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Post by easmus on Feb 13, 2021 12:28:27 GMT -6
Where does UND rank in conference in tackles? Maybe that’s an unofficial stat, and they’ve fallen off on that one since Brewster got canned.
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Post by 88grad on Feb 13, 2021 12:30:08 GMT -6
Glad the games are on Midco. I'm also having a fingernails on chalkboard reaction to the color commentator's super cliche Midwestern accent. The Os are soooooooo aggressively long!
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yote18
Senior Member
Posts: 573
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Post by yote18 on Feb 13, 2021 14:01:38 GMT -6
Glad the games are on Midco. I'm also having a fingernails on chalkboard reaction to the color commentator's super cliche Midwestern accent. The Os are soooooooo aggressively long! It’s every O too... can someone confirm if this is really their accent or do we just notice it cause we don’t have that in south dakohhhta |
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Post by easmus on Feb 13, 2021 14:21:27 GMT -6
The Southern Manit”oooh”ba accent was quite strong in the volleyball broadcast from UND last weekend.
I feel like we have a dangerous pattern starting with our ladies. We are running into an issue where key starters are getting 2 fouls early in the half, and then Dawn parks them so they don’t pick up a 3rd. But the offense & defense both suffer and the lead we have often built dissipates and we’re in a close game we shouldn’t be. Some of that is the lack of depth with Monica and Watson hurt. And in these instances last year, Frederick was a very reliable post presence, so when she and Hannah rotated every 5 minutes, often there was not much drop off on either end. Hannah was more dominant inside but Taylor could hit a 3 more often, so they both stressed the defense when the other was out. We don’t have that with Mazurek or Peplowski right now. Mazurek looked to get benched today. But Krull took two boneheaded fouls in the first half. First was a reach late in shot clock when she was already in good position. I don’t remember the second, I just remember being frustrated by it. IMO Lamb is reaching and leaving her feet far too often. We were falling for pump fakes from outside today and leaving our feet and then letting them get past us and now you’re trailing and looking for help defense. That and the pick and roll D wasn’t great. Either switch or don’t. Running into each other isn’t a strategy. Glad they gutted out yet another road W, but they’ve got to clean up some of this stuff soon.
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 13, 2021 15:33:01 GMT -6
The Southern Manit”oooh”ba accent was quite strong in the volleyball broadcast from UND last weekend. I feel like we have a dangerous pattern starting with our ladies. We are running into an issue where key starters are getting 2 fouls early in the half, and then Dawn parks them so they don’t pick up a 3rd. But the offense & defense both suffer and the lead we have often built dissipates and we’re in a close game we shouldn’t be. Some of that is the lack of depth with Monica and Watson hurt. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing - foul trouble disrupting rhythm has been a factor in the past 5 games. Some of the foul/out of position issues look like what you see from teams when they are tired. (That said, I'd like to see Hansen get more minutes. I never notice her being out of position, and her size/shooting creates challenges for the other team.) Maybe the shorter bench is wearing them down. Maybe the 8-straight road games is wearing them down. Maybe it is just a mid-season slump and the freshman are losing their legs a bit.
I don't know - I'm not at practice. |
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ndfan
Freshman Member
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Post by ndfan on Feb 13, 2021 18:24:33 GMT -6
I think you under estimated us at North Dakota because of our record we have played everyone pretty much competitive games this year with exception SDSU Jacks and there we don't match up very well and AJ is good coach that he really exploits his advantages in matchups. Today we shot ball better but several of our girls lately starting to shoot better and should have been shooting better all season and i don't know the reason for it but i believe it has todo with people playing out position and players being hurt. But again today like it has been our point guard position we just haven't had production they thought they were going to get out the girls they had to fill that role. But also the Grad transfer they brought in got hurt early in season with season ending injury and same for other Sophomore point guard which just recently came back. This team has played with most teams 30 to 35 minutes with most teams and then they have 5 to 10 minutes they give the game away. Today we started with poor couple of minutes and then ended the game with couple real poor minutes but in between we played right with you or even little better. But like i say the point guard deficit is big reason like today we had -14 point deficit from that position.
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Post by 88grad on Feb 13, 2021 18:32:11 GMT -6
Last year's team is gone and I get that. The big difference between last year and this year to me is that with last year's team I was confident in the starting five and several off of the bench were being able to score. This season there is not that expectation that the ball is going in the hoop.
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 13, 2021 19:14:08 GMT -6
The announcers had mentioned that the coaches are hoping Arens will return soon. Any word on Watson?
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Post by fightsd on Feb 14, 2021 12:20:57 GMT -6
Sjerven is frustrating the hell out of their post players. Fun to watch
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