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Post by kiyoat on Mar 15, 2021 16:07:36 GMT -6
I think we can officially start the thread, folks. The watch party will start very soon. The selection show will be on ESPN at 7PM.
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Mar 15, 2021 17:27:34 GMT -6
Might be some complaints about an 11 seed I guess but tough to complain about that matchup. Eminently winnable game.
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Post by 88grad on Mar 15, 2021 17:33:17 GMT -6
And we've beaten Oregon before!
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Post by usdcoyote on Mar 15, 2021 17:38:14 GMT -6
It sure beats an eight or a nine seed. This gives us a reasonable chance at a sweet 16.
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Post by GoYotes on Mar 15, 2021 18:36:18 GMT -6
Here is a somewhat outdated article about sweet 16 & final four odds for different seeds. It is about 4 years old and is from the men's tournament, but still a good read.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 15, 2021 20:11:21 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 15, 2021 22:10:54 GMT -6
Here is a somewhat outdated article about sweet 16 & final four odds for different seeds. It is about 4 years old and is from the men's tournament, but still a good read. I just did a 10-year look at the women's tournament (2010-2019), and I'll compare the results of that vs your men's tournament data: seed | WBB sweet 16 | MBB sweet 16 | WBB final 4 | MBB final 4 | 1 | 100.0 | 86.8 | 67.5 | 40.6 | 2 | 77.5 | 63.2 | 17.5 | 21.1 | 3 | 55.0 | 50.8 | 5.0 | 11.7 | 4 | 57.5 | 46.1 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 5 | 35.0 | 33.6 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 6 | 25.0 | 32.8 | 0 | 2.3 | 7 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 8 | 0 | 9.4 | 0 | 3.9 | 9 | 0 | 3.9 | 0 | 0.8 | 10 | 2.5 | 18.0 | 0 | 0.8 | 11 | 20.0 | 14.8 | 0 | 2.3 | 12 | 7.5 | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
Clearly the 1-seeds are more dominant in WBB than MBB. The 2-seeds are, too. But to a lesser extent. Look at that 11-seed spot! Same odds as a 7-seed of making the Sweet 16. Those cinderella teams from the 11-seed spot over the last 10 tournaments have been almost exclusively mid-majors. 2021 (South Dakota)20202019 Missouri State 2018 Central Michigan and Buffalo 2017 2016 2015 Gonzaga 2014 2013 2012 Kansas and Gonzaga 2011Gonzaga 2010 San Diego State
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 15, 2021 22:27:44 GMT -6
Here's Oregon's TEAM SHEETThey look pretty impressive on paper.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 15, 2021 23:25:03 GMT -6
A Replay of the Reveal show for the Alamo Region.... Yotes at the 3:45 mark (tried to embed it at that time) Not much said about the Yotes, but it was nice to see the team on ESPN. The bit about the injured PG for Oregon was interesting.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Mar 16, 2021 5:26:44 GMT -6
What is so interesting is that last season the Coyotes were slated to possibly be a #6 seed. This year if they can pull off the upset than they take the spot of the #6 seed. Kind of fitting if they can pull that off. Lets do this.
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Post by gopheryote on Mar 16, 2021 9:12:19 GMT -6
Got to say, both USD and SDSU received VERY favorable matchups. Oregon is beatable and their point guard recently went down. Syracuse is waaay over-seeded for the 30th straight year.
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 16, 2021 9:19:38 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 16, 2021 11:02:31 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Mar 16, 2021 11:16:11 GMT -6
Got to say, both USD and SDSU received VERY favorable matchups. Oregon is beatable and their point guard recently went down. Syracuse is waaay over-seeded for the 30th straight year. I find it interesting that no matter how far both SD women's programs have come, and how good they are, it doesn't seem to matter from a recognition standpoint. We are both consistently underestimated and overlooked in seeding and in national commentator discussions. I suppose being underestimated is an advantage at some point, but it still blows my mind. I mean, the Jacks program is a fixture in the tournament, and both programs have pulled off multiple regular season and tournament upsets. Hell, the Jacks were a Sweet 16 team just two years ago. And yet every time it happens people are surprised. Oh well. Let's "sneak up" on Oregon and stun them again.... Hopefully they pronounce Ki-yoats correctly, and don't refer to us as "South Dakota State" or "San Diego". That would be progress, anyway.
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Post by fightsd on Mar 16, 2021 11:54:43 GMT -6
Got to say, both USD and SDSU received VERY favorable matchups. Oregon is beatable and their point guard recently went down. Syracuse is waaay over-seeded for the 30th straight year. I find it interesting that no matter how far both SD women's programs have come, and how good they are, it doesn't seem to matter from a recognition standpoint. We are both consistently underestimated and overlooked in seeding and in national commentator discussions. I suppose being underestimated is an advantage at some point, but it still blows my mind. I mean, the Jacks program is a fixture in the tournament, and both programs have pulled off multiple regular season and tournament upsets. Hell, the Jacks were a Sweet 16 team just two years ago. And yet every time it happens people are surprised. Oh well. Let's "sneak up" on Oregon and stun them again.... Hopefully they pronounce Ki-yoats correctly, and don't refer to us as "South Dakota State" or "San Diego". That would be progress, anyway. Normally, I'd agree with you but this year I think the 11 is fair. Last year, I realistically thought we had the resume to be about a 4 seed. We played the top teams really close but just didn't have those big wins this year. And losing to state didn't help either. Without the SLT championship, I would have been very surprised if the yotes got in. Looking ahead to the game on Monday, we will have our hands full. The biggest thing will be the length the Oregon has. Multiple girls over 6'4". Definitely not something we've seen in the Summit League. Will need the offense to really be crisp. I don't see Sjerven being able to make a bunch of post moves on girls that tall. Once the defense collapses on her, there needs to be a shooter open for the kick out. Hannah will get her points but they need to be on backside seals and at the free throw line. Defensively, I'm not as worried. I think our girls are scrappy enough to get hands on passes and force turnovers. Rebounding will also be key. Limit second chance points in the paint.
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