Comparing WBB D-1 Transition (USD/SDSU)

[kiyoat]

A post by larobe in the game thread (about A.J. and scheduling for RPI) got me thinking, so I decided to do some research.  I ended up with a different perspective on where our two SD programs have come from, and where they are headed.

I'll start by showing the raw data that I compiled.  I couldn't find some of the information, like USD's seasons before 2007.  I'll add some analysis in later posts:

Season--SDSU----PostSn-----------USD------PostSn

1997----20-7------------------------6-21-------------------
1998----18-9------------------------8-23-------DII SEMIS
1999----18-10----DII 1st Rd------7-20-------------------
2000----19-8------------------------11-16------------------
2001----15-12-----------------------15-12-----------------
2002----28-9------DII SEMIS------19-9------------------
2003----32-3--#--DII CHAMP-----32-6--#--DII 3rd Rd
2004----27-6--#--DII QTRS-------25-9------DII 1st Rd
2005----21-7-------------------------17-3------------------
2006----19-9-------------------------15-13-----------------
2007----27-6-----WNIT QTRS-------22-9------DII 1st Rd
2008----25-7--#--WNIT 1st Rd-----33-2--#$-DII FINALS
2009----33-4--#$-NCAA 2nd Rd--18-11----------------
2010----24-11--$-NCAA 1st Rd---15-16-----------------
2011----19-14--$-NCAA 1st Rd---20-12----WBI 2nd Rd
2012----24-9--#$-NCAA 1st Rd---23-8-----WNIT 2nd Rd
2013----25-8--#$-NCAA 1st Rd---19-16----WBI SEMIS
2014----26-10-#--WNIT SEMIS----19-14--$-NCAA 1st Rd
2015----24-9----$-NCAA 1st Rd---26-8--#--WNIT 2nd Rd
2016----27-7----$-NCAA 2nd Rd--32-6--#--WNIT CHAMP
2017----23-9------WNIT 2nd Rd----23-9------WNIT 2nd Rd
2018----26-6----$-NCAA ?---------26-6--#--WNIT ?

The lines indicate D-1 transition
The colors indicate coaching change
# = regular season champs
$ = conference tourney champs

[kiyoat]

If any of you see errors, or have a source for USD's NCC records, let me know.



You can take away a lot from this, and rubbing the Jacks' success in our faces was not my intention. Here are some thoughts:



1. I didn't realize how dominant the old NCC was in women's basketball in the 90's and 2000's.  Even though the Jacks and Yotes were excellent programs, NDSU and UND were even more dominant in that era.  It makes sense now why the attendance numbers for the two ND schools were so good in the past (NDSU has fallen off recently).  I think contrasting NDSU with SDSU in both on-court success and attendance #'s shows how consistent success can sustain fan interest even with an inconsistent year or two, but not consistent failure.  It's like a delayed reaction/momentum thing.  Right now USD's fan-base is slowly and steadily gaining momentum.

2. Every time there is a coaching change, there is at least a little interruption in momentum.  Sometimes it's just a small step back, sometimes it's a complete rebuild, like in the men's team.  Although we have had great coaches in Lavin, R. Williams, A. Williams, and Coach P, it isn't ideal to keep changing coaches every four years.  I think the consistency that A.J. has provided State over the transition was critical.  Unfortunately, keeping great coaches around at a mid-major is more the exception than the rule.

It doesn't just affect Wins and Losses.  It really affects recruiting momentum.  Look at the case of Myah Selland.  By some accounts Amy was on the verge of getting a commitment from her.  With the coaching change Dawn didn't have a chance there.  No relationship.  That will hurt us for a few more years now.  To me, the longer we can hang on to our current great coaches in FB, MBB and WBB the better.  Like, every single season we keep them makes a difference.

[kiyoat]

3. I see some similarity between Dawn's first two years and Amy's last two years.  Does that mean we are primed for a deep WNIT run?  I think they have the capability.

[sdyotefan]

Great info kiyoat--Thanks!! The following link has a lot of NCC stats and info you'll want:

northcentral.prestosports.com (googled as North Central Conference)

Interesting side note--Lady Yotes are 2-0 all time vs Notre Dame (in the 80s) which I kid my ND friend about! He says ND was playing with nuns back then LOL....

[kiyoat]

4. After updating the NCC data for USD, it really is amazing what Chad Lavin did to raise the profile of the program. USD was in last place when he took over, and he went to the DII Semifinals in year 1, after again finishing last in the regular season! Looks like he did a lot of the blue-collar work of changing the culture.

[kiyoat]

side stat of the day:

NCC WBB Championships
11 NDSU (3 shared)
10 UND (3 shared)
5 USD (1 shared)
3 UNO
2 SDSU (2 shared)
1 St. Cloud (1 shared)
1 Mankato

Also: Aaron Johnston and Chad Lavin have the same number of NCC Championships: 2

Also: Both USD/SDSU won the conference in their final seasons as members

[elcoyote]

Some of those records for both the South Dakota schools are staggeringly good. Then consider that a lot of it was done with roster heavy in local kids and it speaks highly of the quality of high school girl's hoops in this state.

[usdcoyote]

Mar 8, 2018 11:32:28 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

4. After updating the NCC data for USD, it really is amazing what Chad Lavin did to raise the profile of the program. USD was in last place when he took over, and he went to the DII Semifinals in year 1, after again finishing last in the regular season! Looks like he did a lot of the blue-collar work of changing the culture.

Our women's program was sooooo bad when lavin took over. He really did get this program turned around and deserves a lot of credit for where we are today.
Interesting that state had a 7 seed in their first year in the tournament. That still might have been their best team, led by a D2 recruit. Actually I still think their best team was their D2 title team, but their best D1 team was the first year they made the big dance. They actually got hosed against Baylor in the 2nd round that year.