JMU VS THE VALLEY

[aldewitt]

After a couple weeks of play here is how JMU stacks up against The Valley + UND this morning:

PREDICTED RECORD: 8-3

W : JMU vs SIU predicted JMU 39 SIU 27  
W : JMU vs MSU predicted JMU 38 MSU 22  
W : JMU vs UNI predicted JMU 35  UNI 12   
W : JMU vs YSU predicted JMU 33  YSU 17  
L  : JMU vs  NDSU predicted JMU 20  NDSU 34
W : JMU vs ISUb predicted JMU 25 ISUb 19 
W : JMU vs WIU predicted JMU 22  WIU 20
L  : JMU vs SDSU predicted JMU 22 SDSU 39
W : JMU vs USD predicted JMU 31  USD 18
L  : JMU vs ISUr  predicted JMU 20  ISUr 29
W :  JMU VS UND  predicted JMU 30  UND 16 


At first I put it up as JMU vs. USDs schedule. I then added the other teams to bring it to 11 and removed dates and location.

[aldewitt]

JMU is being used as a standard candle to measure relative strengths of the Valley teams week to week.

This week JMU looks pretty good against the Valley. 

PREDICTED RECORD: 10-1

W : JMU vs SIU predicted JMU 42 SIU 24
W : JMU vs MSU predicted JMU 36 MSU 34  
W : JMU vs UNI predicted JMU 30 UNI 18
W : JMU vs YSU predicted JMU 38 YSU 19
L  : JMU vs NDSU predicted JMU 26 NDSU 28 
W : JMU vs ISUb predicted JMU 35 ISUb 18
W : JMU vs WIU predicted JMU 37  WIU 18 
W : JMU vs SDSU predicted JMU 29 SDSU 11  (used NDSU game statistics for SDSU.  Last week included the 90 point debacle)
W : JMU vs USD predicted JMU 35 USD 22
W : JMU vs ISUr predicted JMU 28 ISUr 22
W : JMU VS UND predicted JMU 33 UND 16

Using JMU as a standard candle we can develop a MVFC strength index:

MVFC Strength Index:

NDSU +2
MSU -2
ISUr -6
USD -6
UNI -12
ISUb -17
UND -17
SDSU -18
SIU -18
WIU -19
YSU -19

[usdtator]

Oct 1, 2018 7:52:01 GMT -6 aldewitt said:

JMU is being used as a standard candle to measure relative strengths of the Valley teams week to week.

This week JMU looks pretty good against the Valley. 

PREDICTED RECORD: 10-1

W : JMU vs SIU predicted JMU 42 SIU 24
W : JMU vs MSU predicted JMU 36 MSU 34  
W : JMU vs UNI predicted JMU 30 UNI 18
W : JMU vs YSU predicted JMU 38 YSU 19
L  : JMU vs NDSU predicted JMU 26 NDSU 28 
W : JMU vs ISUb predicted JMU 35 ISUb 18
W : JMU vs WIU predicted JMU 37  WIU 18 
W : JMU vs SDSU predicted JMU 29 SDSU 11  (used NDSU game statistics for SDSU.  Last week included the 90 point debacle)
W : JMU vs USD predicted JMU 35 USD 22
W : JMU vs ISUr predicted JMU 28 ISUr 22
W : JMU VS UND predicted JMU 33 UND 16

Using JMU as a standard candle we can develop a MVFC strength index:

MVFC Strength Index:

NDSU +2
MSU -2
ISUr -6
USD -6
UNI -12
ISUb -17
UND -17
SDSU -18
SIU -18
WIU -19
YSU -19

Seems fair... Makes me nervous that your algorithms have MSU rated so high...

[aldewitt]

I know!  They looked good against ISUr. Going in the Bears looked good on paper. After the win they were bone-a-fide.

[aldewitt]

JMU is being used as a standard candle to measure relative strengths of the Valley teams week to week.

PREDICTED RECORD: 10-1

W : JMU vs SIU predicted JMU 38 SIU 20
W : JMU vs MSU predicted JMU 35 MSU 22  
W : JMU vs UNI predicted JMU 32 UNI 28
W : JMU vs YSU predicted JMU 34 YSU 19
L : JMU vs NDSU predicted JMU 27 NDSU 31 
W : JMU vs ISUb predicted JMU 36 ISUb 22 
W : JMU vs WIU predicted JMU 38 WIU 18
W : JMU vs SDSU predicted JMU 32 SDSU 31 (used full season statistics for SDSU)
W : JMU vs USD predicted JMU 33 USD 20  (score changes spread stays the same)
W : JMU vs ISUr predicted JMU 27 ISUr 24
W : JMU VS UND predicted JMU 31 UND 18

Using JMU as a standard candle we can develop a MVFC strength index:

MVFC Strength Index:

NDSU +4
SDSU -1
ISUr -3
UNI -4
USD -13
MSU -13
UND -13
ISUb -14
SIU -18
WIU -19
YSU -19

[aldewitt]

The thing about JMU is the points they have scored: 241. This is over 100 more than most Valley teams. It's 98 more than USD. It gives them an inflated offensive efficiency coefficient.

JMU has simply run the score up against weaker opponents.

Robert Morris 73-17
William and Mary 51-0
Richmond 63-10

The loss Saturday may not have been that big of surprise. There may be more in store. Their scoring history and scoring potential are two different things. I don't see them running up 50 in the Valley against any team without a huge pushback like we saw at SDSU last night.

By seasons end JMU may be running with the pack.

[aldewitt]

Oct 7, 2018 7:52:08 GMT -6 aldewitt said:

JMU is being used as a standard candle to measure relative strengths of the Valley teams week to week.

PREDICTED RECORD: 10-1

W : JMU vs SIU predicted JMU 39 SIU 19 
W : JMU vs MSU predicted JMU 34 MSU 23  
W : JMU vs UNI predicted JMU 32 UNI 20
W : JMU vs YSU predicted JMU 35 YSU 17
L : JMU vs NDSU predicted JMU 24 NDSU 30 
W : JMU vs ISUb predicted JMU 36 ISUb 21 
W : JMU vs WIU predicted JMU 36 WIU 16
W : JMU vs SDSU predicted JMU 30 SDSU 29  
W : JMU vs USD predicted JMU 35 USD 19  
W : JMU vs ISUr predicted JMU 26 ISUr 23
W : JMU VS UND predicted JMU 30 UND 18

Using JMU as a standard candle we can develop a MVFC strength index:

MVFC Strength Index for week October 20:

NDSU +6   up 2
SDSU -1
ISUr -3 
MSU -11
UNI -12
UND -13
ISUb -14 down from -4 which is puzzling.  Probably an entry error or truth?
USD -16  
SIU -18
WIU -19
YSU -19