MVFC Week 4

[aldewitt]

Forgot the Schedule.  It's a short one this week.  Both South Dakota schools on the sidelines.

Hampton @ Northern Iowa
Deleware @ NDSU
Illinois State Redbirds @ Colorado State (game of the week)

DELEWARE Blue Hens @ NDSU Bison

PREDICTED WINNER:  NDSU
SPREAD:  NDSU -9
OVER/UNDER:  43
MYTHICAL SCORE:  NDSU 26 DELEWARE 17

The Blue Hens are a good looking football team  They come in allowing only 77 yds/game rushing.  They get a lot of their yards through the air but average 139 yds/game on the ground.  That's enough to keep the offense honest against the run and keep the chains moving.

Their problem is the points allowed.  They have scored 83 (Bison 87) but they have given up 31 (Bison 10).  This is a significant statistic.  Bison opponents are not having an easy time of it in the redzone.  

The Blue Hens will come in looking to make a game of it.  They have the guns but they have to score TDs in the red zone and keep the Bison out.  A tall order.

I'll take NDSU just like it looks.  I think they have a good chance to cover and if they do the score will be big so I'm taking the over too.

9/20:   

NDSU -28 on 5 dimes.

NDSU -25.4 Sagarin

ACTUAL:  NDSU 38  Deleware 10.  NDSU covers the 9 point spread and the game goes over with a total of 45 points.  Over/under was 43.   

[aldewitt]

Illinois State Redbirds @ Colorado State Rams

PREDICTED WINNER:  ISUr
SPREAD:  ISUr -5
OVER/UNDER:  59
MYTHICAL SCORE:  ISUr 32  CSU 27

 CSU is having a tough time of it.  They can't get the running game going and their opponents are just running all over them.  They are 1-3 beating Arkansas 34-27.  They have lost to Hawaii at home, Colorado on the road and Flordia on the road.  They are barely competitive and certainly would fare better in the MVFC.  

The big rap on CSU is points allowed at 163.  They give it up liberally on the ground and through the air 245 and 253 yards respectively.  ISUr is no defensive juggernaut either but the way they win is slow down the already weak CSU rushing game that is averaging only 82 yards/game.

Of course they will then have to take care of things themselves.  They do have a powerful rushing game getting 211 yds on Saturdays.  They should get all of that and more possibly opening up what is a strong supportive passing game for a predominately running team.

I think ISUr can win but I'm not going to say cover.  I don't expect a romp either so I'm taking the under.

SAGARIN  ISUr -9.5  giving Colorado 3 for home field as suggested

www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

ACTUAL:  ISUr wins 21-13 covering the 5 point spread and staying way under the 59.  ISUr is a good team and Colorado State would be mid level in the MVFC.