MVFC: 10/13/18

[aldewitt]

Im not sure of the week but here are the projections for October 13, just now printing out by the GAM:

GAME	Predicted Winner	Spread	O/U:MYTHICAL SCORE
YSU @ SDSU	SDSU	14	66:  40-26
UNI @ USD	USD	1	57:   29-28
MSU @ ISUb	ISUb	3	65:   31-34
SIU @ ISUr	ISUr	16	58:   37-21
NDSU @ WIU	NDSU	16	56:   36-20
UM @ UND	UM	4	54:   29-25

Over/Under 5 Dimes:  YSU/SDSU 59; UNI/USD 53; MSU/ISUB 61.5; SIU@ISUR 50; NDSU@WIU 55.5; UM/UND 49.5

Big test for SDSUs legitimacy.  Are they bone-a-fide?

UNI is a very, very dangerous improving football team.  Same situation as USD.  This game could be a dog fight with these teams trying to decide which one is continuing on the road to a championship.

MSU @ ISUb Might be the best game in the league this week.  Both of these squads are putting up good numbers and both have game.  Nothing but respect for these teams.  They have left their hearts on the field this year as they both begin to make some noise.  Both played great games on the road last week.  They would tear up the Big Sky.

SIU @ ISUr:  I think SIU is fading.  ISUr needs to get back on track and they need to forget about the Bison next week.

NDSU is projected to go undefeated in the MVFC this season.

University of Montana is not what they once were.  A foregone conclusion in Grand Forks has now turned into a huge ? for each team.  UND would like to be elite and they are trying to prove it on the field.  Montana would like to restore some of their lost pride.  It's a close one but Montana has the stats.  UND will have to take it away.  I have to say I have enjoyed UND football in its D1 "Golden Age" and this may be another good one!

 

[aldewitt]

Tracking these 3 prognostications will provide 3 points of reference in preparation for the tailgate discussions Saturday:

Sagarin has home field at 2.43 this week.  Adjust indicated Sagarin scores appropriatly, if you wish, and round to nearest .5 point.

GAME	SAGARIN	5-Dimes	GAM
YSU @ SDSU	SDSU -18.59	SDSU -15.5	SDSU -14
UNI @ USD	USD +7.41	USD +1.5	USD -1
MSU @ ISUb	MSU -11.62	MSU -7.5	ISUb -3
SIU @ ISUr	ISUr -13.63	ISUr -14.5	ISUr -16
NDSU @ WIU	NDSU -26.01	NDSU -19.5	NDSU -16
UM @ UND	UM -3.5	UM -2	UM -4

 5 Dimes has USD a slight underdog at 1.5 at home as did the GAM. Adjusting +3 for USDs Dome Field advantage makes them a 1.5 pt favorite.

NDSU is #30 in the country by Sagarin.  Alabama is a 32.5 point favorite over the Bison.  Sagarin says Bison are +0.5 to the Ducks today.  Before home field it's Bison -1.70.  GAM says Bison 32 Ducks 30.   

Sagarin is really starting to see a separation in the potentials of the teams.  It's showing up on the GAM and of course 5 Dimes where money is doing the talking.  If the games tumble big like indicators are telling us the early season excitement might be over.  The playoff contenders clearly emerge.  Right now the close games seem be the teams that are still on the bubble.  

I like the MVFC title sharing rule.  It rewards deserving teams for a long hard season.  No tie breakers for conference titles, they can share it.  

3 top contenders in The Valley for playoff spots this week are NDSU, SDSU and ISUr.  There could be 1 or 2 more spots up for grabs.

[elcoyote]

Huge factor in the ISUr vs SIU game will be if QB Sam Straub plays. He was out against Youngstown and the Saluki offense really struggled without him. With him they beat YSU.

[aldewitt]

Sagarin has home field at 2.43 this week.  Adjust indicated Sagarin scores appropriatly, if you wish, and round to nearest .5 point.

GAME	SAGARIN	5-Dimes	GAM
YSU @ SDSU	SDSU -18.59	SDSU -17.5	SDSU -14
UNI @ USD	USD +7.41	USD +1.5	USD -1
MSU @ ISUb	MSU -11.62	MSU -7.5	ISUb -3
SIU @ ISUr	ISUr -13.63	ISUr -14.5	ISUr -16
NDSU @ WIU	NDSU -26.01	NDSU -19.5	NDSU -16
UM @ UND	UM -3.5	UM -4	UM -4

@ 5 Dimes this afternoon:

5 Dimes has USD remaining a slight underdog at 1.5 at home.

YSU @ SDSU  SDSU spread increases from -15.5 to -17.5

UM spread over UND has increased from -2 to -4 

[aldewitt]

Sagarin has home field at 2.43 this week.  Adjust indicated Sagarin scores appropriatly, if you wish, and round to nearest .5 point.

@ 5 Dimes this morning the odds is Grand Forks tightened a bit.  Otherwise no changes

GAME	SAGARIN	5-Dimes	GAM
YSU @ SDSU	SDSU -18.59	SDSU -17.5	SDSU -14
UNI @ USD	USD +7.41	USD +1.5	USD -1
MSU @ ISUb	MSU -11.62	MSU -7.5	ISUb -3
SIU @ ISUr	ISUr -13.63	ISUr -14.5	ISUr -16
NDSU @ WIU	NDSU -26.01	NDSU -19.5	NDSU -16
UM @ UND	UM -3.5	UM -3	UM -4

On 5 Dimes this morning:

46% of todays FCS games are expected to be blowouts.

There are 56 total games listed, 10 of these games have spreads greater than 20.  16 have a spread between 10-20.

Clearly a divider between the top and bottom teams.

There are some good ones scheduled though.  2 are in our area with UNI at the Dakota Dome and  the game in Grand Forks.

Moorhead State @ Davidson has an O/U of 81.5 and Davidson is a 3 point favorite. This one, if correct will be a "fun-to-watch" scoring fest. It should be tight to the end. 

There is a pic em:  Austin Peay @ SE Missouri State.  Money line is even at 120 ($100 wins $20) and O/U is 68.5.  Another seemingly good game.

A money line (bet to win, no points) like  Stony Brook @ New Hamshire has NH -2 and the money line is SB +100; NH -140.  A $100 bet on SB wins $100.  A $100 bet on NH wins $40.  

There are some crazy money line bets.

William & Mary @ Towson has Towson a 30 point favorite.  Money line is WM +3000; Towson -11000.  I'm not even sure what this means.  

Montana @ ND is Montana -160 ($100 wins you $60) and ND +120 ($100 wins $120).  It's close in the spread but on the money line people think Montana is stronger.  A bet on Montana wins half as much for the same risk.

The money line on the USD game is very interesting.  UNI is a 1.5 point favorite.  Money line is UNI -135 ($100 wins $35).  USD is -105 ($100 wins you $5).  The handicappers have it tight but it seems there is not much reward in betting on the sure thing.

 

[kiyoat]

Question: Massey also has the game at -1 USD. Do you see a lot of correlation between them and your formula?

[aldewitt]

Yes, I do.  It has been a reliable aid over the years in spotting the poorly handicapped games, miss-priced as they say.  It has also prevailed in many "tailgate" prognostications.  I'll always go with over the others but the money line will sure tell you how the bettors are feeling.

The over/under is also pretty close.  

Overall it seems to be a bit more conservative.  I don't use the half point convention but do in close games.