MVFC GAMES 10/27/18

[aldewitt]

FOR GAMES OCTOBER 27:

based on conference play only

UNI is now in second place in the league @ 3-1.  They have risen to 2nd in scoring offense, 2nd total offense, 1 in pass efficiency.  They are 5 in total defense, 4 in rushing defense, 7 in pass defense and 3 in scoring.  

There is a 6 place tie for 3rd place with 2-2 teams.
    

GAME	Predicted Winner	Spread	O/U	Mythical Score	Actual Score
SDSU @ ILS	ILS	5	51	ISU 28-23
UNI @ WIU	UNI	7	54	UNI 31-24
INS @ YSU	YSU	2	56	YSU 29-27
NDSU @ USD	NDSU	11	55	NDSU 33-22
SIU @ MSU	MSU	9	53	MSU 31-22
WSU @ UND	UND	6	54	UND 30-24

[aldewitt]

Here are the 3 reference points.  5 Dimes didn't have the games posted as of this morning:

2.47 home field was plugged into all Sagarin numbers:

GAME	SAGARIN	5DIMES	O/U	GAM	O/U	FINAL SCORE
SDSU @ ILS	SDSU -3	N /A	N/A	ILS -5	51:  ILS 28-23
UNI @ WIU	UNI -11.5	N/A	N/A	UNI -7	54:  UNI 31-24
INS @ YSU	YSU -7.5	N/A	N/A	YSU -2	56:  YSU 29-27
NDSU @ USD	NDSU -23	N/A	N/A	NDSU -11	55:  NDSU 33-22
SIU @ MSU	MSU -6	N/A	N/A	MSU -9	53:  MSU 31-32
WSU @ UND	UND -3	N/A	N/A	UND -6	54:  UND 30-24

Over/unders are down because the OOC games were not included.  This eliminated a lot of points and yards distorting the true picture.

Sagarin has solid favorites across except for 2 close ones.  The GAM is a little tighter as usual.

Sagarin has NDSU at 29.  I think they have been in the top 25 but this is a high ranking.  Last week they were 32.  USD is hosting one of the best football teams in the country at any level.  

They are ranked higher by Sagarin than The Ducks, Iowa State, Minnesota, Kansas State, Kansas and Nebraska.  They are 10.5 underdogs at #9 Iowa (1-0 vs Hawkeyes) and 26 point underdogs at Alabama.  The 2018 Bison will be the best football team to ever play in the Dakota Dome.

[aldewitt]

Only 5 teams, 1 MVFC, in FCS are undefeated against the top 25:

• NDSU 3-0
• Maine 3-0
  
• Towson 2-0
  
• Weber State 2-0
• UC Davis 1-0
  

Weber State at #10 in the country looks to be formadable going into Grand Forks.  I'm watching this one.  The handicap models may not be catching the momentum of the UND squad.  Right now they remind me of UNI.  They have some glaring weaknesses but have some ball players too.  

The savings from canceling womens hockey may be showing up in spendable cash for football and other sports. This was something I didn't condsider when talking about Summit non scholarship football.  They get another boost when travel is brought back into reason by escaping from the Big Sky.

[aldewitt]

Here is an early look at playoff brackets. 

www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

UND vs UNI first round with winner in Fargo sounds real good. 

[aldewitt]

Just checked 5 Dimes.  Here is the updated sheet:

2.47 home field was plugged into all Sagarin numbers:

GAME	SAGARIN	5DIMES	O/U	GAM	O/U	FINAL SCORE
SDSU @ ILS	SDSU -3	ILS -2.5	52	ILS -5	51:  28-23
UNI @ WIU	UNI -11.5	UNI -6	50	UNI -7	54:  31-24
INS @ YSU	YSU -7.5	YSU -8.5	51	YSU -2	56:  29-27
NDSU @ USD	NDSU -23	-22.5	56	NDSU -11	55:  33-22
SIU @ MSU	MSU -6	MSU -5	63	MSU -9	53:  31-32
WSU @ UND	UND -3	WSU -1	42.5	UND -6	54:  30-24

[aldewitt]

Just checked 5 Dimes.  Here is the updated sheet:

2.47 home field was plugged into all Sagarin numbers:

GAME	SAGARIN	5DIMES	O/U	GAM	O/U	FINAL SCORE
SDSU @ ILS	SDSU -3	ILS -2.5	52	ILS -5	51:  28-23
UNI @ WIU	UNI -11.5	UNI -7*	50	UNI -7	54:  31-24
INS @ YSU	YSU -7.5	YSU -8.5	51	YSU -2	56:  29-27
NDSU @ USD	NDSU -23	-22.5	56	NDSU -11	55:  33-22
SIU @ MSU	MSU -6	MSU -5	63	MSU -9	53:  31-32
WSU @ UND	UND -3	UND -6.5**	42.5	UND -6	54:  30-24

*from -6
** from +1.  big change.  a physical team in the BSC like Montana used to be is a winning number.

[aldewitt]

Just checked 5 Dimes.  Here is the updated sheet:

2.47 home field was plugged into all Sagarin numbers:

GAME	SAGARIN	5DIMES	O/U	GAM	O/U	FINAL SCORE
SDSU @ ILS	SDSU -3	ILS -2.5	52	ILS -5	51:  28-23
UNI @ WIU	UNI -11.5	UNI -5*	50	UNI -7	54:  31-24
INS @ YSU	YSU -7.5	YSU -8.5	51	YSU -2	56:  29-27
NDSU @ USD	NDSU -23	-22.5	56	NDSU -11	55:  33-22
SIU @ MSU	MSU -6	MSU -5	63	MSU -9	53:  31-32
WSU @ UND	UND -3	UND -4.5**	42.5	UND -6	54:  30-24

*from -7
** from -6.5.  

[aldewitt]

Just checked 5 Dimes.  Lots of changes to the sheet tonight:

2.47 home field was plugged into all Sagarin numbers:

GAME	SAGARIN	5DIMES	O/U	GAM	O/U	FINAL SCORE
SDSU @ ILS	SDSU -3	ILS -1.5*	52	ILS -5	51:  28-23
UNI @ WIU	UNI -11.5	UNI -6**	50	UNI -7	54:  31-24
INS @ YSU	YSU -7.5	YSU -8.5	51	YSU -2	56:  29-27
NDSU @ USD	NDSU -23	-22.5	56	NDSU -11	55:  33-22
SIU @ MSU	MSU -6	MSU -7***	63	MSU -9	53:  31-32
WSU @ UND	UND -3	UND -6****	44.5	UND -6	54:  30-24

*from -2.5
**from -5
***from -5
**** from -4.5; from 42.5  

[aldewitt]

Just checked 5 Dimes.  Here is what I know about the MVFC conference this morning:

2.47 home field was plugged into all Sagarin numbers:

GAME	SAGARIN	5DIMES	O/U	GAM	O/U	FINAL SCORE
SDSU @ ILS	SDSU -3	ILS -1.5*	52	ILS -5	51:  28-23	SDSU 38-28
UNI @ WIU	UNI -11.5	UNI -6**	50	UNI -7	54:  31-24	WIU 37-17
INS @ YSU	YSU -7.5	YSU -8.5	51	YSU -2	56:  29-27	IND 43-17
NDSU @ USD	NDSU -23	-23.5*	56	NDSU -11	55:  33-22	NDSU 59-14
SIU @ MSU	MSU -6	MSU -7***	63	MSU -9	53:  31-32	SIU 49-35
WSU @ UND	UND -3	UND -6****	44.5	UND -6	54:  30-24	WSU 35-30

*from -22.5


The final

MISS-PRICING ALERT:  yea right!  
  23.5 + USD is looking very good.  Ill check in a few hours.  It will probably draw tighter.

not today. They could have had 21 points but couldn’t push it in at the goal line. Game over.  There is no stopping the Bison. 

Upsets all down the sheet, big ones too. Lots of parity in the league. Everybody playing good football