MVFC WRAPS IT UP FOR 2018:

[aldewitt]

Lower numbers are better.  Based on all games the power ratios for the league this week are:

NDSU .4585  2018 MVFC CHAMPIONS
SDSU .6771
ISU .8230
IND .8403
UNI .8510
MSU 1.055
USD 1.179
YSU 1.281
WIU 1.384
SIU 1.56


Games for 11/17/18:

GAME	PREDICTED WINNER GAM	O/U GAM	MYTHICAL SCORE	SAGARIN	5DIMES	5Dimes O/U
USD@SDSU	SDSU -15	65	SDSU 40 - USD 25	SDSU -21.5	SDSU -20	72.5
MSU@UNI	UNI -7	55	UNI 31- MSU 24	UNI -18	UNI -23	54.5
YSU@ILS	ILS -4	46	YSU 25 - ILS 21	ILS -12	ILS -10.5	39.5
*IND @ WIU*	IND -5	59	IND 32 - WIU 27	WIU -7	WIU -7	57.5
SIU@NDSU	NDSU  -17	61	NDSU 39 - SIU 22	NDSU -33	NDSU -31	59.5
UND@N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

UPSET ALERT:   YSU is on a roll.  Watch for the 5Dimes line.  This game may come out mis-priced as last weeks.  They may not have caught on yet.  The NDSU game was no fluke. 

*IND @ WIU Is "Game of the Week"!*

[aldewitt]

Waiting for 5Dimes.  2 possible gold mines this week        

• YSU @ ILS:   YSU is playing to their potential.  They are an 8 point favorite using statistics earned in the UNI game.  On the other hand they are a 7 point underdog using the NDSU game, the strongest performance against the Bison of any team this year.   Somebody told me Uncle Buck said:  The more pts 5Dimes offers YSU fans over 1 makes it interesting, at 4 the money train is arriving, over 8 it's an investment. 
    
  
• IND @ WIU:  Indiana State is on a roll.  Sagarin is once again missing their momentum in a big, big way.  Hope 5Dimes is the same.  They made a mistake last week, hope it keeps going that way.  I heard Uncle Buck said:  If this one comes out right at 5Dimes it might be worthy of the house payment money.  Nothing like a free house payment and a pocket full of cash!  I heard Uncle Buck often leveraged his sure things with money from utilities and rent.  I guess  it's the smart way to leverage the sports portfolio?  Hard to argue with that.  It's easy to see where the extra winnings would be nice, especially for a big vacation or something.

Those are the best possible guesses this morning.

God Bless every veteran of the American Armed Forces  that has served The USA loyally.  From my heart thank you to all veterans and those now on active duty:  Thank You!

[aldewitt]

Games for 11/17/18:

The sheet is updated to all 3 points of reference

2.41 awarded to home team on Sagarin scores.

GAME	PREDICTED WINNER GAM	O/U GAM	MYTHICAL SCORE	SAGARIN	5DIMES	5Dimes O/U
USD@SDSU	SDSU -15	65	SDSU 40 - USD 25	SDSU -21.5	SDSU -20	72.5
MSU@UNI	UNI -7	55	UNI 31- MSU 24	UNI -18	UNI -23	54.5
YSU@ILS	ILS -4	46	YSU 25 - ILS 21	ILS -12	ILS -10.5	39.5
*IND @ WIU*	IND -5	59	IND 32 - WIU 27	WIU -7	WIU -7	57.5
SIU@NDSU	NDSU  -17	61	NDSU 39 - SIU 22	NDSU -33	NDSU -31	59.5
UND@N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

YSU @ ILS:  YSU and the points looks like a winner from here.

IND @ WIU:  Our pick for GOTW is also on the mis-priced list.  IND and the points is pretty good looking.

How does USD and 20 points look?  That could be a huge mis-price too, especially if you think the upset is brewing!

[aldewitt]

Alabama, NDSU and Saturdays game in Brookings

NDSU vs Bama looks a lot like the USD vs. KSU game did this year. Don't let perceptions fool you. Some of the best football, and some of the best football players in the land attend school in the Dakotas.

It ain't over until its over. Although USDs statistical profile has steadily weakened throughout the season (accounting for the big spread for this game), if the team plays as they did against KSU they can win Saturday.

Ran a few numbers today:

Finals of the Mythical Champions Playoff, all divisions:

NDSU 38 Augie 12.    NDSU to cover and take the over.

Alabama bye

Title Game:

Alabama 30 NDSU 26.  Im taking Alabama to cover and the over but Im hedging with a stake on the Bison too.  Clearly an upset is possible.

Would an adjustment be appropriate here to deliver an accurate prediction of the game?  No, the instructions the GAM gives are clear.  Take The Tide to cover and take the over.

Some hidden facts:

Alabama power ratio:   .4985
NDSUs power ratio:  .4585

NDSU is clearly better against the FCS than The Tide is against the FCS.  

Only 4 of their opponents are ranked above NDSU by Sagarin.  This week they have the Citadel.  

The GAM puts the spread low because its telling you the chance of an upset is high.  How likely a person is to take the Bison and actually wager money would be based on the spread between the GAM and 5Dimes.

[aldewitt]

Regular season wraps up with a perfect sweep.  The GAM was the only predictor showing the Indiana State win. 
 
Good season for the GAM. It is conservative with the spreads. It has proven to be a reliable and profitable system when used as a guide. As an absolute window into the future it is reliable as Sagarin. 5 Dimes started the season weak but finished strong with an  uncanny ability for the spreads and OU. 

The power ranking was new this year. It is actually the slope of a line representing the steepness of a teams climb up winners mountain. The flat liners with the .45s have a walk in the park. Those over 1 are looking at a steep grade.  The base line is at 45 degrees sloping up to the right. It shows perfect parity with a slope of 1.

The computers are packed and the semis are full of our equipment. We are in full retreat from the Dakota winter.  We want to be up and runnng for the inevitable mis-priced playoff games. There are bills to pay and a new car would be nice.  

The first round could be a gold mine but we may not be able to get the steam pressure restored that fast. We could use the boiler-man from the Hooterville Cannonball. As is we are a do-it-yourself outfit. 

We are especially anxious to get the new car. A nice ice mobile, not hooked up to the internet, not driven by software and not subject to the whim of enimies public or private that can steer your autonomous vehicle into a tree because you don’t think right. Our fleet of Mercury Marquees has over 200,000 miles on each vehicle. These are the true gems of the American auto industry.