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Post by kiyoat on Nov 26, 2018 8:47:42 GMT -6
RPI is not yet available, but I thought I would make this thread anyway. I'll be very interested to see how the NCAA's new metric, the "NET" will perform against the RPI, KenPom and Massey/Sagarin. I'll probably do a week-to-week comparison once the RPI and NET rankings come out. We don't yet have an exact formula for the NET, as it was developed specifically for the NCAA, and is proprietary. At some point they will have to provide the formula, or if they don't, someone will just figure it out and replicate it anyway. I have a theory that the reason they haven't released the exact formula yet is that they plan on tweaking it after the first year, based on results. Here's what we know so far: So this at least outlines some of the major components, or factors. We may never get the actual formula, though. Keeping the algorithm secret probably has some advantages, not the least of which could be to "cook the books" if they choose to. Here's an article on that subject that was written back in late August (before the above information was released by the NCAA). www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/the-ncaa-tournament-committee-should-come-clean-on-how-it-will-determine-net-results/ |
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 26, 2018 16:54:25 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Nov 26, 2018 16:57:32 GMT -6
11/26/18 - first rankings (after Bahamas)
NET (KenPom) [RPI]
159 SDSU---(90)-[177]
175 USD----(154)-[278]
192 NDSU--(213)-[207]
203 UND----(237)-[176]
228 Omaha-(199)-[220]
236 Denver-(239)[196]
239 PFW----(217)-[154]
305 ORU----(281)-[338]
316 WIU----(238)[334]
What to take away from this:
1. KenPom ranks the Summit teams generally better than the NET at this point of the season, especially SDSU and WIU. Might be that KenPom is still using a percentage of last years data, while the NET is using limited data.
2. The RPI is always way off in the early part of the season, and this year is no exception. They have the Summit generally slightly lower in rankings, so the NET is an improvement so far.
3. The RPI shows Ft. Wayne with the highest rank, and also has the highest SOS at #94. The RPI really hates USD, so I guess you could say that the NET is very favorable to us. Our SOS is #284, third worst in the conference. Baylor and Kansas will likely change that.
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Post by golfingyote on Nov 27, 2018 9:42:40 GMT -6
I have to say after looking at the first NET rankings, It is embarrassing that this is going to be a measurement tool for the selection committee. Loyola Maramount at 10 and Kansas at 11...Go look at those 2 teams schedules and explain that one to me. Furthermore, Michigan Sate is at 7 and Kansas at 11 when Kansas beat them on a neutral floor. I am not a kansas fan but those were the easiest ones to cherry pick.
The way the NET is setup, it should become more accurate over time, but not a good look for its first release.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 3, 2018 9:12:52 GMT -6
11/26/18 - first rankings (after Bahamas) NET (KenPom) [RPI] 159 SDSU--- (90)-[177]175 USD----(154)-[278]192 NDSU--(213)-[207] 203 UND---- (237)-[176]228 Omaha- (199)-[220]236 Denver- (239)[196]239 PFW----(217)- [154]305 ORU----(281)-[338] 316 WIU---- (238)[334]12/3/18 - (after CSU Bakersfield) NET (KenPom) [RPI] 148 SDSU---(65)-[220] 184 PFW----(210)-[236]^^ 185 USD----(154)-[277]202 NDSU--(223)-[173] 224 Omaha-(201)-[170] 231 WIU----(209)-[229]^^ 249 Denver-(268)[213] 255 UND----(275)-[337]\/ 313 ORU----(285)-[327] My takeaway: I won't go into a detailed analysis, since national rankings won't end up meaning much to the men's teams. The Summit is very far away from getting an at-large, so it only goes into seeding for the SLT champ. If we consider KenPom to be the most accurate, and compare both the NET and RPI off of that, I'd say that the NET is a better approximation of actual strength. The RPI is wildly inaccurate right now, as it always is at the start of the season. The NET should have SDSU separated from the pack, but at least they still have the highest rank. In the RPI they are 4th. |
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Post by gasser86 on Dec 3, 2018 17:06:12 GMT -6
I don't understand the NET... How does PFW's NET jump from 239 to 184 when they got blown out by UMKC (NET 256) at home, barely beat Cleveland St (NET 309), and blew out Eastern Ill. (NET 311). Yet we drop to 185 after almost beating Baylor (NET 148) on the road and handling Bakersfield (NET 264).
KenPom seems to have the most accurate rankings to me. There are not huge fluctuations in the rankings with teams moving up or down as opposed to the NET and RPI.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 3, 2018 17:28:06 GMT -6
I think one of the advantages of KenPom and other similar polls is that in the early part of the season they will substitute the lack of data with last year's numbers. Then they gradually remove it as new data becomes usable. While using last year's data is a little disingenuous, it helps stabilize what would otherwise be the wild fluctuation you see in the RPI (and now in the NET). Really there isn't any option for the NET, since they have zero data from last year.
I think as the season goes along the NET will get better. They had better hope so, since they have gone "all-in" with the NET...
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 10, 2018 9:04:57 GMT -6
NET (KenPom) [RPI] 148 SDSU---(65)-[220] 184 PFW----(210)-[236]^^ 185 USD----(154)-[277]202 NDSU--(223)-[173] 224 Omaha-(201)-[170] 231 WIU----(209)-[229]^^ 249 Denver-(268)[213] 255 UND----(275)-[337]\/ 313 ORU----(285)-[327] Dec 10 update (after UMKC) NET (KenPom) [RPI]143 SDSU---(80)-[222] 195 NDSU--(219)-[215] 207 USD----(171)-[284]224 PFW----(195)-[209] 270 Omaha-(224)-[208] 285 Denver-(275)[287] 289 WIU----(238)-[337] 313 UND----(280)-[319]\/ 327 ORU----(305)-[327] Take-away for Summit strength:Only SDSU and NDSU went up in NET rank, everyone else shifted down a little in both the NET and KenPom. ORU is no longer isolated at the bottom. Overall Summit strength is bad. The Summit RPI is #30 of 32 right now. Need to start winning some games. Looks like #2-#9 could be up for grabs? Take-away for NET:Much more correlation with Ken Pom this week, at least in the order of teams. NET likes NDSU a little too much. The RPI still sucks. |
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Post by gopheryote on Dec 11, 2018 14:39:23 GMT -6
I'm a basketball-first guy, but it is hard to get excited for SL MBB this year. The entire league is not good (including the clear-cut leader). Feels like the top 3 teams from last year would blow out all 9 teams this year. We know injuries combined with a coaching change has hampered USD so far - why is everyone else struggling?
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Post by elcoyote on Dec 11, 2018 20:20:49 GMT -6
I'm a basketball-first guy, but it is hard to get excited for SL MBB this year. The entire league is not good (including the clear-cut leader). Feels like the top 3 teams from last year would blow out all 9 teams this year. We know injuries combined with a coaching change has hampered USD so far - why is everyone else struggling? Hard to argue with any of this and good question at the end. The Summit has been as high as 12 in conference ratings in recent seasons and now it's 30 out of 32. That's just sad. Main culprits might be ORU and NDSU. Both seem to be sliding into oblivion in both men and women's hoops. |
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Post by gopheryote on Dec 12, 2018 6:13:20 GMT -6
Oh boy - Summit League is #30 of 32 conferences, behind #29 SWAC, who is a combined 8-73 in D1 games.   |
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Post by JWKunzman on Dec 12, 2018 9:15:51 GMT -6
Yikes. Well sdsu playing junior high B squad teams doesn't help the conference much
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 12, 2018 9:28:10 GMT -6
Yikes. Well sdsu playing junior high B squad teams doesn't help the conference much They definitely have a weak non-conference schedule. I have to think that is by design, since they were, and are, the clear favorite to win the conference. One would assume they had scheduling options. What I don't know is how much it even matters for the men's teams, since they have scrapped the RPI (which emphasized SOS above everything else). The motivation for the men's teams might now be just to win games, as opposed to scheduling tough. Obviously the Summit hasn't done a great job of winning games lately, so neither strategy matters a lot. It will be interesting what strategy gets rewarded come tourney time. At-large bids are totally off the table for the Summit, but seeding is worth trying for. |
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Dec 12, 2018 12:27:30 GMT -6
Scheduling and RPI doesn't matter in MBB as the Summit will never get an at-large.
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Post by kiyoat on Dec 12, 2018 17:22:59 GMT -6
our ever-sensitive friend, mitchellrabbit, is tattling on us over at SDSUfans for the Jacks "catching crap" on our board about their MBB scheduling. ... so..... there was, like, one lukewarm post about it. And JW wasn't wrong, either. That's a weak team to schedule. The Jacks have the RPI's #347 schedule. Worst in the conference, despite being clearly the best team. That's facts, not conspiracy theory. We also discussed how SOS really doesn't matter in the Summit anyway, since we won't get an at-large. Scheduling for wins might be a better strategy, who knows? wow. You would think they might have more important things to talk about, like the huge Football semifinal game Friday, or the huge WBB game tonight, or how they kept Daum in with like 5 minutes left in a historical blowout, or their amoral coach being rewarded for a cover-up, or their "real" rival's coach getting hired away, etc. Nope. Instead, they are monitoring our board, to find slights to exaggerate. All class. Feel free to jump in to the conversation any time, mitchellrabbit. (I know you are reading this).... |
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