@ #23/25 Missouri

[kiyoat]

Almost a week until the game, but I thought I'd start the thread, since there isn't much else going on in Coyote athletics (that interests me).

Here is a link to the TigerBoard forum that will at some point contain their game thread:

www.tigerboard.com/boards/list.php?board=3

Looks like they have some discussion of WBB there, although it is in the "threaded" nested-outline style that is hard to follow (as opposed to "flat" style that most message boards use.

Another ranked opponent, another big opportunity.  They are 8-2 with losses to Green Bay (RPI 23) and Michigan (RPI 43).  Their biggest wins were home tilts with Duke (RPI 46) and Quinnipiac (RPI 76).

[kiyoat]

Massey gives us a 41% chance of winning, with a typical score of 60-64. I like our chances in a close game.

*edit: if the game were in Vermillion, the odds are reversed.  64-60 Yotes.  A neutral location is a toss-up.

I think our offense will be more productive than we have shown at times this season, our defense is sound, and we are the better free-throw shooting team. Advantage Yotes.

In Missouri's two losses they have been held to season lows of 49 points (vs Green Bay) and 54 points (vs Michigan).  I'll guess we hold them to less than 64.

My guess: Yotes win a physical, ugly game 66-59.  Either they call it loose and we have our way with them, forcing turnovers and getting transition buckets, or they call it tight and the game basically looks like the Green Bay game.  We win with free-throws then.  The "Norwegian Thugs" should sharpen their shivs...

[kiyoat]

Quick hit stats: What Missouri does very well....

Defense
Allows 34.3% FG (#33)-----USD shoots 44.0% (#64)
Allows 38.7% 3P (#113)----USD shoots 33.6% (#96)
Allows 56.4 points (#53)--USD scores 76.9 (#50)

(strength vs strength)

Arc Shooting
242 3P Attempts(#25)
7.8 3P per game(#62)
32.2 3P% (#132)-----USD allows 32.1% (#224)

(strength vs weakness)

[kiyoat]

What Missouri is bad at....

Ball Control
15.7 turnovers/game (#129)------USD is forcing 20.5 (#52)
13.1 forced TO/game (#329)------USD is committing 13.1 (#20)
-2.6 TO margin (#280)-------------USD is +7.4 (#16)

+3.6 Rebound margin (#116)------USD is +8.3 (#40)

6.0 Steals/game (#290)------------USD is getting 11.4 (#39)

0.85 Assist/TO ratio (#148)--------USD has 1.18 (#33)

(weakness vs. strength) 

Fouls/Free throws
19.2 PF/game (#255)-------------USD is committing 17.7 (#170)
67.2% FT shooting (#192)-------USD is shooting 78.8% (#15)

(both teams commit and draw lots of fouls.  USD just shoots better)

[kiyoat]

Also, their offense is average vs. our good defense.

Add this all up, and the stats tell me that the primary way Missouri beats us is a combination of them shooting hot from the arc, and us shooting cold.  The wrong team is favored!

[gopheryote]

Nice work kiyoat!

[Yotes]

Missouri beat Missouri State by 4 at home, lost to Green Bay by 7 at home. We beat Missouri State by 11 on the road and Green Bay by 6 at home.

Transitive property says we win by at least 10. Who’s next?

[mizzouman]

Good analysis kiyoat. This year's Mizzou team has been really tough to figure out. The expectations coming in were sky high with this being Sophie Cunningham's senior season (best player in program history). The medical retirement of Cierra Porter (sister of 2018 NBA first round pick Michael Porter Jr.) was a huge blow for our front court. We got off to a pretty bad start to the season but have been playing a lot better the last couple of weeks after a change in our starting lineup.

This game is particularly interesting because of the two common opponents that our programs have already played this year. The Green Bay loss was a big shock and snapped a 54 game home court non-conference winning streak. Our last home non-con loss prior to that was in December of 2011. I have a lot of respect for the success that the Coyotes have had the last several years. We will have to play pretty well to get the W on Saturday. I think the loss to Green Bay, hopefully, woke up Mizzou a little bit. We shall see.

[kiyoat]

Dec 10, 2018 18:05:09 GMT -6 mizzouman said:

Good analysis kiyoat. This year's Mizzou team has been really tough to figure out. The expectations coming in were sky high with this being Sophie Cunningham's senior season (best player in program history). The medical retirement of Cierra Porter (sister of 2018 NBA first round pick Michael Porter Jr.) was a huge blow for our front court. We got off to a pretty bad start to the season but have been playing a lot better the last couple of weeks after a change in our starting lineup.

This game is particularly interesting because of the two common opponents that our programs have already played this year. The Green Bay loss was a big shock and snapped a 54 game home court non-conference winning streak. Our last home non-con loss prior to that was in December of 2011. I have a lot of respect for the success that the Coyotes have had the last several years. We will have to play pretty well to get the W on Saturday. I think the loss to Green Bay, hopefully, woke up Mizzou a little bit. We shall see.

Thanks for the background info! I haven’t yet looked at the roster, but being SEC, I assume you guys outsize us in the post, and out-athlete us at guard. You will undoubtedly have those advantages. Since you have already played Green Bay, I’d say it will be similar in many ways to that matchup.

[mizzouman]

Dec 10, 2018 19:17:51 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Dec 10, 2018 18:05:09 GMT -6 mizzouman said:

Good analysis kiyoat. This year's Mizzou team has been really tough to figure out. The expectations coming in were sky high with this being Sophie Cunningham's senior season (best player in program history). The medical retirement of Cierra Porter (sister of 2018 NBA first round pick Michael Porter Jr.) was a huge blow for our front court. We got off to a pretty bad start to the season but have been playing a lot better the last couple of weeks after a change in our starting lineup.

This game is particularly interesting because of the two common opponents that our programs have already played this year. The Green Bay loss was a big shock and snapped a 54 game home court non-conference winning streak. Our last home non-con loss prior to that was in December of 2011. I have a lot of respect for the success that the Coyotes have had the last several years. We will have to play pretty well to get the W on Saturday. I think the loss to Green Bay, hopefully, woke up Mizzou a little bit. We shall see.

Thanks for the background info! I haven’t yet looked at the roster, but being SEC, I assume you guys outsize us in the post, and out-athlete us at guard. You will undoubtedly have those advantages. Since you have already played Green Bay, I’d say it will be similar in many ways to that matchup.

We are pretty small this year by SEC standards (and probably women's college basketball standards in general). We start a 6'2 girl that is more of a face up kind of player. We don't really have much of a low post presence really. We are a guard-oriented team. 

I was reading the Iowa State game thread and I have to say that I really enjoyed the post of the one disgruntled ISU fan. That reads almost exactly like what South Carolina fans and Auburn's coach have said about us. I love it! 

The big key for Mizzou in this game I think is keeping Sophie Cunningham out of foul trouble. That has been a common theme of our season so far. And everything we do is predicated on her being on the court and playing well. Far too often this season, she has picked up a cheap frustration foul and had to sit for extended stretches. She is a very emotional player so it is vital for Mizzou that she doesn't get frustrated.

I will be at the game on Saturday and I am hoping we have a good atmosphere. It will really help us in this game. We've been around 3,500 or so for most of our non-conference games. I think our fans know the reputation of South Dakota and will bring some extra energy. We need to treat this like an SEC game.

[kiyoat]

Dec 11, 2018 10:11:56 GMT -6 mizzouman said:

I was reading the Iowa State game thread and I have to say that I really enjoyed the post of the one disgruntled ISU fan...

... We've been around 3,500 or so for most of our non-conference games...

Yeah, the "pasty-faced Norwegian thugs" comment was a classic.  I have to assume that particular fan gets indignant about "dirty play" a number of times a year.  I'm sure there is sometimes a fine line between smart/ aggressive/physical basketball and actual dirty play, but I can assure you that our girls are not cheap-shot artists.  They just put it all out on the court.

That sounds like a great atmosphere for a big game!  I'm sure our girls will appreciate the big-time feel of the game.  We average maybe half that for non-con, and a little over 2K for the season, with rivalry games at 3,500 to 4,000.  This kind of game will prepare them for going on the road to our rival in Brookings (SDSU).

Good Luck!

[kiyoat]

Here is Missouri's stand-out player that mizzouman was so kind to mention:




Sophie Cunningham #3
6'-1" Senior Guard
15.4 Pts/5.9 Reb/2.5 Asst/1.1 Stl
44/29/73 shooting

Five-star, all-everything, many accolade type player.  Her shooting averages are actually down this year, for some reason.  Over her career she has sniper stats: 50/39/83, so not a player to leave open, or to foul at the end of a game.

She is also very good at getting to the line.  This year she is #43 in the country in # of FT attempts.  Like a taller all-american version of A. Arens.

[kiyoat]

Also this player stands out in the stats:




Amber Smith #23
5'-11" Jr Guard

14.9 Pts/8.3 Reb/2.3 Asst/1.3 Stl/1.3 Blk
44/33/71 shooting

Based on stats, she is having an exceptional and well-rounded year.  She has recorded 6 double-doubles, for #9 in the country!

  Both of these two experienced guards have been starters since they were freshmen, and play a lot of minutes.  It will be hard to just isolate one of them on defense.  We will have to play technically sound.  Lucky for us, that is our specialty.

[kiyoat]

www.columbiamissourian.com/sports/mizzou_womens_basketball/no-bigs-no-problem-missouri-women-s-basketball-ready-to/article_e7b3e3dc-b211-11e8-bfa3-e7610eccd4c2.html

Here's an article from September about this Missouri Squad.  I thought these lines sounded eerily familiar....

...Pingeton and her coaching staff have done plenty of studying this offseason to create a style of play to fit a new-look Tigers team missing a consistent post presence...
...she wants her team to embrace what she’s calling “positionless basketball,” and embrace the need to be versatile....
...the team will be basing its style of play off an unlikely source: Florida Gulf Coast, the team that knocked the Tigers out of the 2018 NCAA Tournament...

...“We’re basing our whole offense off them,” Cunningham said. “With our lack of size, we have to switch it up.”...
...“We’ve talked about [full-court press] a lot,” she said. “Being a guard-heavy team, we’re going to have some opportunities to expand our defense a little bit...
...“Just kind of being up in people’s grill a little bit more and giving some pressure [will be a focus],” she said...

That sounds exactly like what Coach P was implementing at the start of last year, and what we have now, with the exception that we now have more size and physicality at post.  The offense also talks about an up-tempo offense, which Coach P also talked about.  I don't know if you would characterize our offense as up-tempo, though.

This could explain a little of Cunningham's slightly lower offensive stats this year, and her and Smith's all-around stats, as they share the ball more.  Should be a good game.

[yoteforever]

I’m thinking about going down to the game. Anyone else out there restless like I am that would want to go if I decide to make the trip?