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Post by kiyoat on Jan 22, 2019 9:21:53 GMT -6
I'm running out of clever thread titles. That might be giving my past titles too much credit, though. Massey has us losing by one point: 68-69 If the score is that close, I just hope we can keep our renegade thug coach from getting T'd up again /s . . .    |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 22, 2019 11:41:31 GMT -6
Players to watch:  #15 Cortez Seales 6'-4" Senior Guard 12.5 pts/ 4.4 reb/ 3.0 asst/ 1.5 ATO shooting: 45/22/71  #32 Connor Avants 6'-7" Senior Forward 12.3 pts/ 5.2 reb/ 1.6 asst/ .9 ATO Shooting: 62/00/73 Neither of these two players shoots well from the arc, but they are the leading scorers, and probably the most well-rounded otherwise. Brown and Moody shoot 46% and 39% from the arc, but the rest of their stats are less impressive. Rebraca shoots 58% FG and rebounds well. I think Lee will game-plan well with a team like this that has role-players. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 22, 2019 11:56:06 GMT -6
Stat match-ups:
Scoring:
USD and UND are the #1 and #2 scoring defenses in the league.
USD scores 67.4 points / UND allows 71.6
UND scores 75.0 points / USD allows 67.9
Shooting efficiency:
USD shoots 44/33/71 --- UND allows 44/36
UND shoots 47/38/70 --- USD allows 44/35
Slight advantage to UND because of their offense. If we can shoot a little better than our average we will win IMO.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 22, 2019 12:08:45 GMT -6
Ball Control:
Rebound Margin:
USD: -2.8
UND: -1.3
Turnover Margin:
USD +1.7
UND -1.5
Assist/Turnover Margin:
USD 1.08
UND 1.06
To me these stats are pretty balanced. I'd call it a push. They rebound a little better, we turn it over a little better. They have more assists, we hold on to the ball better. No huge advantage either way.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 22, 2019 12:20:42 GMT -6
Fouling:
We both commit about 16 fouls a game, but we draw a couple more than them from the opposing team, on average. We both shoot about 70% at the line, so the very slight advantage goes to USD. Call it a 2-point advantage, on average.
On a related note, the NCAA stat page that I use a lot doesn't have "fouls drawn", but the Summit League's stat page does. You just go to the sort-able team stats, and click on the "defense" tab. It's pretty handy.
It's too bad there isn't an individual "free-throw attempts per game" stat. There is a "FT attempts total" stat, and you can divide it by games, but you can't get a national or conference ranking. I like to look at that, because some players are better than others at drawing fouls. Nit-picking, I know.
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 23, 2019 6:09:30 GMT -6
Any word if TBM will return this week? And is Jech done for the year, or is it possible he returns?
Other than the obvious difference of forcing youngsters to lead/contribute it appears we could be setting up for a solid end to the year and SLT if TBM and Jech come back soon. We are in a position to win these games without them, which is commendable on its own. But getting full strength and peaking at the end of the year has its benefits. Reminds me of the SDSU situation a few years ago when the team that was playing in the SLT was quite different than then team that played most of the year (Daum's emergence, IIRC).
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Post by usdtator on Jan 23, 2019 8:18:13 GMT -6
According to the interview (link posted below) that Jay did with the ToddFather, Jech and TBM could be making appearances this week. Jay posted this last night.
"Coach Lee was very candid in describing last week’s controversial ejection at ORU. It was just part of our conversation, but very interesting to hear it from his perspective":
youtu.be/vUJ0oCgH4iA
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 23, 2019 9:02:06 GMT -6
... Reminds me of the SDSU situation a few years ago when the team that was playing in the SLT was quite different than then team that played most of the year (Daum's emergence, IIRC). I believe you are thinking of TJ's first season. I'm pretty sure Daum was a known commodity at that point. I recall the issue with the Jacks in the early part of the season was a new coach trying to have them play a style of defense they weren't comfortable with or good at. Some kind of zone that just sucked. Correct me if I'm wrong, Jacks posters. They were scoring well, but defending poorly. |
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Post by gopheryote on Jan 23, 2019 10:12:34 GMT -6
... Reminds me of the SDSU situation a few years ago when the team that was playing in the SLT was quite different than then team that played most of the year (Daum's emergence, IIRC). I believe you are thinking of TJ's first season. I'm pretty sure Daum was a known commodity at that point. I recall the issue with the Jacks in the early part of the season was a new coach trying to have them play a style of defense they weren't comfortable with or good at. Some kind of zone that just sucked. Correct me if I'm wrong, Jacks posters. They were scoring well, but defending poorly. Yeah - that sounds right. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 23, 2019 10:20:31 GMT -6
Scouting and comments about injuries from Coach Lee in the interview:
On North Dakota:
"They can score. They run really good offense.... They have guys in the program, in the system a number of years."
"Avants is an undersized post, but he's one of those guys that just knows his game. He knows how to play, get his shot off against anybody. ...He's undersized, but he's a really really good post player. And they've got shooters around him. so they can score the ball"
On Injuries:
" (TBM) is close. We're hoping we see him this week. We'll see how his foot reacts today in practice. The other day we tried him, and it just didn't feel very good..."
"Dan Jech is hopefully closer to going, too. Logan Powers is probably the longest being out. He's out for a little while longer. But we're hoping we can get TBM and Jech in this week."
"We need the minutes, we need the bodies. Our guys want to play, but their probably tired of playing 39 or 40 minutes."
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 23, 2019 21:01:51 GMT -6
70-56 Coyotes win! Great defensive effort. Having TBM back was a game-changer. Especially with rebounding and defense.
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Post by elcoyote on Jan 23, 2019 21:33:34 GMT -6
HUGE win! With 5 of the first 7 games on the road, home games against probably the two toughest teams in the conference and given the injury situation a 3 and 4 record with the most brutal part of the schedule behind us looks OK. Get all the players back, take care of business at home and steal another on the road and we should be in good shape for the conference tournament. Throwing Johns in the pool at the deep end these last few games hopefully will result in more depth as the season progresses. Obvious what having TBM available means to this team. Call me optimistic, but I think the arrow is starting to point up.
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Post by Yotes on Jan 23, 2019 23:06:55 GMT -6
I don't know how we went 8 years without playing UND, but I hope we go another 8 years without losing to them  |
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Post by sdyotefan on Jan 24, 2019 0:07:43 GMT -6
Was a great win! I thought besides all the team positives that Brandon played very well--scoring, FTs, rebounds and decent D!!
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 8:46:44 GMT -6
I see Nate-Rob didn't play. I wonder if he is injured, or does Lee just prefer to play with 7 guys? Things were improved for minutes with TBM in, but Simpson still played 39 and TP played 37. That's baffling to me. Maybe Lee just has a high standard of the level of play he puts out there, regardless of numbers of guys. I didn't think Robinson was a huge liability, though. Jay was much worse, but he still got minutes early in the season. Size matters, I guess.
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