2019-20 National Rankings (Polls, NET, advanced metrics)

[kiyoat]

So right now we only have preseason rankings and predictions, but Ken Pomeroy's numbers might be the most interesting.  Many advanced metrics rankings that put out rankings this early will only be using the previous year's data, then a blend, and then finally just use this year's data at some point.  KenPom does that, too, but he takes it a step further.

He customizes the data to each player, and then accounts for graduation and transfers.  He even accounts for coaching changes somehow in the algorithm.  I'm not sure how he can parse out a coach's effect on the team, but it's interesting, nonetheless.  Incoming freshmen are not accounted for except in the case of ESPN's top-100 recruits.  So that won't affect mid-majors much.

Compare that with Massey, which I like, but is essentially crap in the early season.  They have SDSU as the best team in the league by far.  Obviously just a replication of last year's final rankings, with no adjustments.

Here's the Summit League in KenPom's preseason poll

129 USD
165 NDSU
170 UNO
194 ORU
208 SDSU
243 PFW
264 UND
296 WIU
303 Den

I think this is similar to the Media poll, but with NDSU/USD ORU/UNO and WIU/UND switched.

Seems legit.

[kiyoat]

KenPom and NET rankings for the Summit men's teams.  Both are recently updated.  underline indicates a 40-point+ gap between teams.

KenPom#	KP Tm	NET Tm	NET#
139	ORU	ORU___	108
143	NDSU	NDSU__	146
154____	SDSU	UNO	184
193	USD	SDSU	189
196	UNO	USD	204
223	UND	UND	220
226____	PFW	PFW	251
307	WIU	WIU___	278
329	DU	DU	315

None of these teams will be in at-large consideration, so the NET is only valuable in determining seed for whichever team is lucky enough to win the SLT. (hint: the seed won't be good) A 16-seed and play-in game would actually be the best scenario, for the probability of getting a win in the tournament, like NDSU did last year.

As for KenPom, it probably represents the more accurate picture of team strength right now.  ORU, NDSU and SDSU in the top tier, USD, UNO, UND and PFW in the middle, and WIU and DU in the bottom.

The parity in the conference makes me not worry that much about seeding, to be completely honest.  The really important thing is to gain some confidence and some competence through the season, and to be healthy and lucky come tourney time.... It would be a lot more fun to win some games in the meantime, though.