Halfway Week: @UND and Showdown at the Interstate- part II

[kiyoat]

We will have completed the first half of the conference season on Thursday, when we Go to Grand Forks to play the Hawks for the first time this year.

Then we waste no time getting into the 2nd half - playing our arch-rivals at home on Saturday....

Predictions:
Yotes beat Hawks 72-66 (-6) Massey
Yotes beat Hawks 71-64 (-7) WN

Jacks beat Yotes 70-63 (+7) Massey
Jacks beat Yotes 67-64 (+3) WN

We are currently tied for 4th place with St Thomas with a record of 4-3.  Despite the worryingly close games, we have not been upset by any of the teams ranked lower.  Only beaten by SDSU, NDSU and ORU.  We haven't looked very dominant in Summit play, and in-fact may have played our best game in a loss in Brookings.  Can we play defense at a rate that will allow us to move up?  Time to put up or shut up.

[dbyote]

Defense and turnovers have limited our ceiling. Offensively we are probably good enough to compete.

[yote18]

Games could go either way honestly. We’ve shown glimpses of being a better version of the team than what’s been out there. The last few games we’ve been able to reduce some of the turnovers if we can keep those under control I think we have a great shot.

UND is in a similar situation to us when comparing there SL results to ours. No wins against the top but handling those below them. I think they’re starting to put enough together to compete for the 4-5 spot in the race against us.

SDSU is starting to gel and peak at the right time as always. Normally a trip to vermillion was their loss of the season but it really depends on which team comes out to play for USD this year. We need to stay aggressive for 4 quarters and keep our foot on the gas. Too many times we’ve been aggressive in Q1 and then given up a bad Q2. It can be done but will need to be a full game not just a quarter or two.

[kiyoat]

Here's a look at some key stats in conference play, using "conference only" stats (no data from non-conference season).

opponent	ave TO forced	vs USD	diff		ave points	vs USD	diff
NDSU	17.7	13	-4.7		79.7	84	+4.3
Omaha	15.9	23	+7.1		70.6	71	+0.4
Oral Rob	19.3	22	+2.7		82.1	91	+8.9
St Thomas	16.1	17	+0.9		68.3	61	-7.3
SDSU	16.1	15	-1.1		78.6	73	-4.4
Denver	11.9	10	-1.9		67.6	70	+2.4
Kansas City	16.0	11	-5.0		62.7	62	-0.7

Using this metric, the Yotes have gradually and steadily cut down on turnovers throughout the conference season from Omaha to KC. (as compared to opponent average)

Also, our scoring defense has been up and down, allowing NDSU, ORU and Denver to score well above their averages, but holding St Thomas and SDSU down somewhat.

[jorjo]

In the era of “freedom of movement” I’m not sure I remember the last offense I’ve seen look this…….. lacking movement….. ball holding….. I’m not sure what I’m watching but we seem very easy to guard in the half court.

[marco]

very solid road win

[kiyoat]

Defense took a giant leap forward. In fact, that was the best defense of the season for the Yotes! Low turnover number too. That’s the kind of performance that builds confidence going into Saturday.

[yotewannabe]

Watched the Jacks game. M. Vlastiun (sp?) went down in the last seconds. Didn’t appear to be much but I have seen not much be not good. Hoping for her it’s nothing. Really hate those injuries for anyone.

[kiyoat]

...Adding the UND game to this chart...

opponent	ave TO forced	vs USD	diff		ave points	vs USD	diff
NDSU	17.7	13	-4.7		79.7	84	+4.3
Omaha	15.9	23	+7.1		70.6	71	+0.4
Oral Rob	19.3	22	+2.7		82.1	91	+8.9
St Thomas	16.1	17	+0.9		68.3	61	-7.3
SDSU	16.1	15	-1.1		78.6	73	-4.4
Denver	11.9	10	-1.9		67.6	70	+2.4
Kansas City	16.0	11	-5.0		62.7	62	-0.7
UND	16.5	12	-4.5		69.6	53	-16.6

Absolutely the best defense of the conference season, 16.6 points below UND's average offensive scoring.  Yote turnovers were right in-line with recent improvements in that area.  There is reason for optimism!

[kiyoat]

Here's that major stats comparison chart from the last Jacks/Yotes game.  I removed advanced stats and just looked at "conference only" stats...

stat	Jacks	Yotes
Scoring Off	76.9 (#2)	70.1 (#6)
Scoring Def	56.9 (#1)	70.6 (#4)
FG%	.475 (#1)	.423 (#6)
FG% Def	.369 (#1)	.431 (#6)
3PT %	.369 (#1)	.335 (#5)
3PT % Def	.239 (#1)	.337 (#6)
FT%	.744 (#1)	.740 (#3)
----
Rebound margin	+7.9 (#1)	+2.8 (#3)
Turnover margin	-1.88 (#3)	-2.5 (#8)
Assist/TO Rate	1.03 (#2)	1.02 (#3)
----
blocks/gm	3.88 (#1)	3.00(#4)
steals/gm	8.25 (#3)	5.75 (#9)

Looks like the Jacks are better in every category, although if I looked at conference-only stats the last time, we would have looked even worse in this comparison.  And we weren't completely shredded last time.

I'll still predict a Jacks win, but I think it will be more competitive of a game than last time.  I think it ends up being a sub-10 margin.  70-63, like the Massey prediction.

[kiyoat]

Nice job from the athletic dept. to charter a flight for these ladies.  Not every mid-major WBB program in the country does this.

It will be nice for them to have today to recover before the State game tomorrow.

[yotenation]

Feb 2, 2024 8:49:26 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

...Adding the UND game to this chart...

opponent	ave TO forced	vs USD	diff		ave points	vs USD	diff
NDSU	17.7	13	-4.7		79.7	84	+4.3
Omaha	15.9	23	+7.1		70.6	71	+0.4
Oral Rob	19.3	22	+2.7		82.1	91	+8.9
St Thomas	16.1	17	+0.9		68.3	61	-7.3
SDSU	16.1	15	-1.1		78.6	73	-4.4
Denver	11.9	10	-1.9		67.6	70	+2.4
Kansas City	16.0	11	-5.0		62.7	62	-0.7
UND	16.5	12	-4.5		69.6	53	-16.6

Absolutely the best defense of the conference season, 16.6 points below UND's average offensive scoring.  Yote turnovers were right in-line with recent improvements in that area.  There is reason for optimism!

I don't think this will ever be an elite defensive team because of limitations in size and athleticism. But the effort last night, especially in the second half, was outstanding. We seem to be seeing some real improvement. Hopefully that continues and they are playing their best when the conference season rolls around.

[dbyote]

Pretty good first 17 minutes only to give up the lead to end the half. Can't defend the dribble drive. Will be a long second half if we can't get that figured out.

[gopheryote]

I don't get it. We do a really poor job of putting our players in a position to succeed. There are a ton of game plans out there when playing a short-handed, but more talented team. We are largely doing the opposite of those game plans.

[Men's League Waterboy]

I don’t know what you’re gonna do when your starters are 3-for-17 from the floor halfway through the 4th.

Need more firepower.