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Post by yotemeal on Dec 2, 2013 14:45:14 GMT -6
Is the Summit League down this year? And if so, just how down are we?
These are valid questions, I think, despite how young this season is. The Summit League’s RPI currently sits around 26 of 31 conferences, significantly lower than our final RPI the last several seasons (I’d be curious to see a year-to-date RPI comparison, but I couldn’t find one). There remains a solid month of non-conference play to boost the league’s profile, but as it stands, the Summit is in desperate need of quality wins. That said, I don’t think the league is as down as some might suggest. From my limited observations, the league is stronger top to bottom, though not as clearly dominant at its upper tier.
Consistent with preseason polls, I think NDSU will ultimately emerge as the clear favorite. Denver and SDSU are a mess right now. If they were playing to expectations, I’m convinced we’d probably be debating whether this is the strongest the league has ever been.
For the Summit League, in its current posture, to advance a team beyond the first round of the NCAA Tournament, it requires a squad with several nice non-conference wins and the kind of in-conference domination that results in a shiny overall record. SDSU was very well positioned last year.
I think NDSU is probably the only team positioned to dominate the Summit League, and that may not be true. I’m poised to witness lots of parity in this year’s Summit League, and not strictly because the top tier has fallen back to the pack, but because the bottom half of the conference appears to be much more competitive. What's driving the "down" conversation is the unanticipated early disarray at Denver and SDSU and that some great efforts are translating into close losses instead of wins. See, e.g., IPFW @ Illinois, Omaha @ UNLV, IUPUI @ Northwestern, NDSU vs. Southern Miss, etc. I think we're all in for some great basketball over the next several months.
Just some early-season pondering....
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Post by Yotes on Dec 2, 2013 16:05:04 GMT -6
NDSU hasn't done quite as well as I thought they'd do, close losses to two very good mid majors in Saint Mary's and Southern Miss are respectable, but that blowout against UND was shameful.
Denver is absolutely blowing it, and I definitely thought SDSU and WIU would have a better showings thus far. IUPUI is as bad as expected, no surprise there. USD is sitting at or just below where I'd expect us to be, but a loss tonight would change that opinion pretty quickly.
Two teams that have absolutely blown me away are IPFW and UNO. IPFW has 3 losses by a total of 4 points, all on the road, one being undefeated ranked Dayton and another one being undefeated Big Ten member Illinois. Never saw this coming out of IPFW. UNO has really pushed 3 great teams, and won the rest in convincing fashion. This is not at all what I expected out of a team that was playing in D2 two years ago.
I'd say we are down as a conference thus far, pretty easy to see that. IPFW and UNO can't continue to be the poster boys of the conference if we're to be taken seriously.
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Post by Yotes on Dec 11, 2013 23:45:54 GMT -6
NDSU topped Notre Dame tonight. No small feat there.
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Post by yotemeal on Dec 12, 2013 16:58:38 GMT -6
NDSU topped Notre Dame tonight. No small feat there. I watched much of the Notre Dame game. A nice win for the Bison. It was the first time I've watched them this year. I've really only watched USD, SDSU and NDSU play this season, and NDSU is the class of the three, but certainly beatable. See UND. SDSU misses Nate Wolters, badly. Who wouldn't? I don't see that void filling. In fact, I think they kind of miss Fiegen's grit as much as Wolters' NBA talent and composure. Denver also picked up a win against an alright Colorado State team. The league benefits if Denver plays up to expectations. I'll take the CSU win as a good sign. The conference season is shaping up to be a grind. Can't wait. |
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Post by yotemeal on Dec 16, 2013 9:23:15 GMT -6
Well, halftime leads against Air Force, Wyoming, Kansas State and Green Bay have all resulted in disappointing losses. Our record is ugly, but there remain several D-I non-conference opportunities to finally close one out -- @ Morehead State, @ Youngstown and vs. Cal State-Northridge. Despite our inability to close, the recent success of conference mates has elevated the Summit League to an RPI/Sagarin rank of 18 of 36. Hopefully the league continues to pick up wins in the coming weeks.
I've listed below an updated (Joe Lunardi) RPI and Sagarin picture. Note: There are 351 D-I basketball teams.
RPI DI record
1 (37) NDSU 5-4
2 (150) Denver 3-5
3 (151) IPFW 7-4
4 (160) UNO 6-3
5 (213) SDSU 3-7
6 (232) USD 2-7
7 (288) IUPUI 2-8
8 (314) WIU 1-4
Sagarin
73 North Dakota State
103 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)
135 Fort Wayne(IPFW)
176 Denver
226 Western Illinois
231 South Dakota State
235 South Dakota
285 IUPUI
One additional thought: With SDSU and Denver apparently awaken, I go back to my original post and wonder whether this is actually shaping up to be one of the better Summit Leagues ever. NDSU is very good. Denver and SDSU have tremendous upside. UNO and IPFW will contend for a top-three finish, in my opinion. We're certainly improved, though our record doesn't show it. I still have no feel for WIU and IUPUI, but they're certainly no Centenary. Adding Oral Roberts to the mix next season makes this thing even more interesting. The future appears bright.
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Post by yotemeal on Dec 17, 2013 11:27:34 GMT -6
Summit League RPI is now at 17 of 36 conferences, one spot ahead of Conference USA. While things are bound to fluctuate, not too shabby.
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Post by gorabbits on Dec 17, 2013 15:27:46 GMT -6
If you average in Oral Roberts, The Summit League moves up to number 14. This should be very attractive to other potential members.
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Post by sdyotefan75 on Dec 17, 2013 17:40:39 GMT -6
Well, halftime leads against Air Force, Wyoming, Kansas State and Green Bay have all resulted in disappointing losses. Our record is ugly, but there remain several D-I non-conference opportunities to finally close one out -- @ Morehead State, @ Youngstown and vs. Cal State-Northridge. Despite our inability to close, the recent success of conference mates has elevated the Summit League to an RPI/Sagarin rank of 18 of 36. Hopefully the league continues to pick up wins in the coming weeks. I've listed below an updated (Joe Lunardi) RPI and Sagarin picture. Note: There are 351 D-I basketball teams. RPI DI record 1 (37) NDSU 5-4 2 (150) Denver 3-5 3 (151) IPFW 7-4 4 (160) UNO 6-3 5 (213) SDSU 3-7 6 (232) USD 2-7 7 (288) IUPUI 2-8 8 (314) WIU 1-4 Sagarin 73 North Dakota State 103 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 135 Fort Wayne(IPFW) 176 Denver 226 Western Illinois 231 South Dakota State 235 South Dakota 285 IUPUI One additional thought: With SDSU and Denver apparently awaken, I go back to my original post and wonder whether this is actually shaping up to be one of the better Summit Leagues ever. NDSU is very good. Denver and SDSU have tremendous upside. UNO and IPFW will contend for a top-three finish, in my opinion. We're certainly improved, though our record doesn't show it. I still have no feel for WIU and IUPUI, but they're certainly no Centenary. Adding Oral Roberts to the mix next season makes this thing even more interesting. The future appears bright. Usually you dont see a big difference between the RPI and Sagarin ratings. I wonder why WIU is 314 in the RPI but 226 in the Sagarin? |
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Post by yotemeal on Dec 17, 2013 18:34:27 GMT -6
Well, halftime leads against Air Force, Wyoming, Kansas State and Green Bay have all resulted in disappointing losses. Our record is ugly, but there remain several D-I non-conference opportunities to finally close one out -- @ Morehead State, @ Youngstown and vs. Cal State-Northridge. Despite our inability to close, the recent success of conference mates has elevated the Summit League to an RPI/Sagarin rank of 18 of 36. Hopefully the league continues to pick up wins in the coming weeks. I've listed below an updated (Joe Lunardi) RPI and Sagarin picture. Note: There are 351 D-I basketball teams. RPI DI record 1 (37) NDSU 5-4 2 (150) Denver 3-5 3 (151) IPFW 7-4 4 (160) UNO 6-3 5 (213) SDSU 3-7 6 (232) USD 2-7 7 (288) IUPUI 2-8 8 (314) WIU 1-4 Sagarin 73 North Dakota State 103 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 135 Fort Wayne(IPFW) 176 Denver 226 Western Illinois 231 South Dakota State 235 South Dakota 285 IUPUI One additional thought: With SDSU and Denver apparently awaken, I go back to my original post and wonder whether this is actually shaping up to be one of the better Summit Leagues ever. NDSU is very good. Denver and SDSU have tremendous upside. UNO and IPFW will contend for a top-three finish, in my opinion. We're certainly improved, though our record doesn't show it. I still have no feel for WIU and IUPUI, but they're certainly no Centenary. Adding Oral Roberts to the mix next season makes this thing even more interesting. The future appears bright. Usually you dont see a big difference between the RPI and Sagarin ratings. I wonder why WIU is 314 in the RPI but 226 in the Sagarin? Someone smarter than me would have to explain it. If curious, here are my sources: Sagarin: sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htmRPI: espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/49 |
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Post by Yotes on Dec 18, 2013 0:59:31 GMT -6
Belmont, 44th in rpi ranking, was absolutely destroyed by Denver tonight and also easily handled by SDSU on Saturday. Belmont already possesses a win at North Carolina this year, and had no chance against a couple Summit teams. I'd say the league got off to a slow start if anything.
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Post by yotemeal on Dec 18, 2013 8:51:38 GMT -6
The Summit League now sits at 15 of 36 in the Sagarin ratings. Keep the out-of-conference wins coming!
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