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Post by Yote 53 on Nov 29, 2016 9:35:28 GMT -6
I didn't even start the 2016 thread until July. Now I'm starting the 2017 thread and it's not even December. That tells you how excited I am for next season already. Really looking forward to it.
2017 Schedule
at Bowling Green - This is a winnable game. W/L rate of 50%, putting it in the L column for now.
at Drake - This will be a blowout win. W
vs North Dakota - Paybacks are a b!tch. Lesson learned, Yotes don't take the foot off the pedal. W
at Western Illinois - Year 2 of the new era and WIU will erode as USD rises. W
vs Youngstown State - It's at home and it's about time to beat this team. W
vs Indiana State - On a roll, another home win. W
at Illinois State - The road is a tough place in the Valley. L
vs Southern Illinois - I just don't see SIU going in the right direction. W
at Northern Iowa - About this time UNI is playing for their lives and they are at home. Panthers are always better the second half of the season. L
at North Dakota State - My heart says yes, my head says no. The team has the ability to slay the giant but the road is tough. L
vs South Dakota State - Every Coyote is sick of losing this game. The team is especially sick of it after the last two years. W
7-4 (5-3 MVFC) & Playoff bound. Heck, I was being conservative in these predictions as I think we may be even better than I expect. I could seriously see this team getting on a roll and putting up a 9-2 record.
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Post by Coyote Fan on Nov 29, 2016 17:57:53 GMT -6
My thought coming into next season is that the range I see the team finishing is somewhere between 3-8 and 7-4. I don't see the team realistically finishing outside that parameter. Going into this year I had the optimistic prediction of 7-4 and was quite a ways off with that one missing it on the high side by 3 games. Most people think the program is headed in the right direction, I think it is heading side ways at this point because rationalize all you want but the team lost their last 4 in a row and it's hard to finish that way and definitely see the team in an upward trajectory. They may eventually turn upwards but for the here and now a 4 game losing streak is not heading upwards.
at Bowling Green - this one won't be any tougher than the road conference games but it will be a close loss - loss
at Drake - win
vs North Dakota - revenge will be on USD's mind and they will win a close one - win
at Western Illinois - this one is a toss up but I am giving it a win - win
vs Youngstown - This is where the season take the wrong turn - loss
vs Indiana State - this has to be a win - it will be a win
at Illinois State - going with loss in this one - loss
vs Southern Illinois - win period
at Northern Iowa - UNI gets better throughout the year and USD goes in the other direction - loss
at NDSU - loss in not so close of a game - loss
vs SDSU - I pointed to this game as a win when Nielson was first hired after thinking this year in Brookings would be a loss. I have changed my mind because the Jacks are going to be tough next year and in perfect conditions another disheartening loss against the rivals - loss
5-6 overall and 3-5 in the MVFC
I am predicting an improvement in the overall record but I am not predicting the kind of a big jump that many will expect. The defense and the offense need to compliment each other well. If the offense is going to continue to play no huddle I would actually like the D to be a little more risk reward just to keep themselves off the field more. Time of possession really became an issue towards the end of the year. I am taking the more conservative approach to the predictions for next year.
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Post by Yotes on Nov 29, 2016 18:09:02 GMT -6
What's our pipeline looking like, will the lines be better in 2017? At this point the only W that I'll predict is Drake and we have a good chance of beating everyone else.
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YoKid
Sophomore Member
Posts: 123 
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Post by YoKid on Nov 30, 2016 10:14:10 GMT -6
Agree with Coyote Fan, I watched all games (half SDSU) minus the NDSU... Next year I can see more output from the frosh WRs and contribution from one or two redshirts at corner/safety/LB, however I'm not sure that will be enough to make the playoffs. The team displayed potential, however losing 4 in a row halted forward momentum. Ideally I'd like to see a swarming defense that starts with the front 4 and on offense the priority has to be establishing the run game (not via Streveler). Again, well stated Coyote Fan next season is a range projection 3-8 -> 7-4. The conference has parity and is tough, with that said I could see several wins/losses flip flopping next year.
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Post by Cousin Eddie on Nov 30, 2016 11:21:39 GMT -6
So...when you harp on finishing with 4 loses, you mean the 1 point loss to #15 WIU, a 3 point road loss to SIU, and 7 point loses (one on the road) to the #1 and #8 seeds in the FCS tournament? Right...OK...I get it...
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YoKid
Sophomore Member
Posts: 123
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Post by YoKid on Nov 30, 2016 12:43:34 GMT -6
So...when you harp on finishing with 4 loses, you mean the 1 point loss to #15 WIU, a 3 point road loss to SIU, and 7 point loses (one on the road) to the #1 and #8 seeds in the FCS tournament? Right...OK...I get it... Like I said there is potential, however the playoff teams found a way to win the close ones and finish the season strong... This is how the MVFC playoff teams finished the last 4 games of the season: NDSU 4-0 Illinois State 3-1 Youngstown State 3-1 South Dakota State 3-1 |
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Post by Coyote Fan on Nov 30, 2016 14:10:18 GMT -6
So...when you harp on finishing with 4 loses, you mean the 1 point loss to #15 WIU, a 3 point road loss to SIU, and 7 point loses (one on the road) to the #1 and #8 seeds in the FCS tournament? Right...OK...I get it... This is the reality that USD finds itself in. We are not measured by how good the Big Sky does or how good we do against them or what the conferences down south do. We are measured by what we do in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. The Coyotes are a .500 club against the Big Sky so it is not like they are dominating outside the Valley. Like it or not SDSU is a very similar peer with a similar type of budget and recruiting area. The biggest advantage they have is a better overall fan following. It can be argued that we shouldn't be compared to NDSU but we absolutely should be compared to SDSU. The Jacks have seemed to find a way to win in the Valley and that started right off the bat in that conference. As tough as the Valley is it also gets rewarded with half it's teams going to the playoffs every year so there is an upside to being in this conference when it comes to playoff worthiness. |
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Post by gopheryote on Nov 30, 2016 17:19:07 GMT -6
Could someone with some knowledge (more than me anyway) give a bit of a breakdown of how many seniors the teams on our schedule are losing? A major reason for optimism for the 2017 Coyotes is that they return a ton of players - likely more key players than most teams. It wouldn't make sense to compare the Coyotes 2017 against the 2016 MVFC, so I'm not buying this year's finish as an indication of the strength of other teams for next year.
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Post by Yote 53 on Dec 1, 2016 9:24:13 GMT -6
Could someone with some knowledge (more than me anyway) give a bit of a breakdown of how many seniors the teams on our schedule are losing? A major reason for optimism for the 2017 Coyotes is that they return a ton of players - likely more key players than most teams. It wouldn't make sense to compare the Coyotes 2017 against the 2016 MVFC, so I'm not buying this year's finish as an indication of the strength of other teams for next year. This is the way I am looking at it, last year was last year. The 2016 Coyote team was close in every FCS game. One more year of birthdays, one more year to get bigger, faster, stronger, and more experienced, and one more year of this coaching staff backfilling with the quality recruits they've been pulling in. While the rest of the league isn't just standing still those teams do have holes to fill due to graduations. USD doesn't have to climb the entire mountain, they could already see the summit in every one of the FCS games they played this past season, the natural upgrade in players is what I am hoping puts us over the top and turns a bunch of those close L's into W's next season. I do think the turnaround could be that dramatic if this team can get in a groove early and go on a roll. 9 wins is definitely possible. |
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Post by golfingyote on Dec 1, 2016 9:54:02 GMT -6
Its so early to make official predictions, but I think 7 wins next year would be extremely good. 9 just seems crazy. SDSU and NDSU will be really really good again next year. SDSU brings back almost their entire offense and NDSU brings back a ton of pieces on both sides of the ball. YSU and Western do not look like they lose much either.
All I am saying is things will not be any easier next year, so we would need to fill some holes on the OLine and Dline very quickly to make major strides in this league. Those seem to be the areas we are most overmatched against the best teams in the league.
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Post by Yote 53 on Dec 1, 2016 10:14:10 GMT -6
9 wins is crazy, and I am just that crazy.
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Post by golfingyote on Dec 1, 2016 10:30:09 GMT -6
9 wins is crazy, and I am just that crazy. Haha fair enough. I hope you're right. Id love to be gearing up for tailgating in verm a year from now. |
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bt71
Sophomore Member
Posts: 107
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Post by bt71 on Dec 1, 2016 10:54:51 GMT -6
9 wins is crazy, and I am just that crazy. Haha fair enough. I hope you're right. Id love to be gearing up for tailgating in verm a year from now. If we stay relatively healthy we will be in the playoffs next year. 100% confident about that. |
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Post by Coyote Fan on Dec 1, 2016 17:59:23 GMT -6
I heard something from a coach once when it came to building a program. I don't know if it was from Meierkort or someone else but it was from that general time frame. The coach said that in year 1 of a new regime that a program kind of gets an initial boost from the first year of a new coach and can slightly over achieve. Then in year 2 the team will kind of level off a bit and maybe even take a small step backwards. It's year three that things really tend to click if that coach is the right guy for a program. It's then that the players recruited by that new coach really have an impact and everything in general just gets more fully established. I can perhaps see that with Nielson. This year even though the record wasn't that good we kind of saw an improvement with areas that made the team fun to watch but they just kind of lost their mojo towards the end. Next year the schedule just doesn't set up that well. Every road game is either extremely brutal at worst or a phase of difficult at best. Even the home schedule involves UND, Youngstown and SDSU.
2018 is looking like that magical playoff birth could be the most attainable. We lose UND on the schedule but Drake also falls off. We gain UNC at home and Weber State on the road. We also lose Illinois State and gain Missouri State back again. The conference schedule mirrors 2016 pretty closely and that includes the home and road teams played as well.
Next year will be difficult partially because of the schedule and also because there are some weaknesses that need quite a bit of fixing. Provided we see a continued improvement on the lines and the D it might need 2 years to really get up to speed. If it happens next year that is an added bonus. That doesn't mean we shouldn't expect the team to make the playoffs because we (meaning everyone involved in the program including fans) need to get to the point of being a legit playoff team every year and not just hoping to be one. I want to stand around the water cooler and hear fans talk about the Coyotes like they now talk about the Jacks, and I mean the casual neutral fan not the guys with the red goggles on. In 2016 the Yotes weren't a legit playoff contender just yet but the tease was kind of fun for awhile.
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Post by usdtator on Dec 1, 2016 21:49:19 GMT -6
I'm going to throw the BS flag on that theory. Jim Harbaugh and Michigan are proof that a team with a new coach can hit year two in high gear and keep elevating.
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