Advanced Metrics Ranking

[kiyoat]

So besides the RPI there are several rankings systems out there that are more accurate, more predictive of success, and take more factors into account.  Unfortunately, only a few of them rank BOTH men and women's basketball.  I thought it would be fun to compare the 4 reputable systems that rank women's BB:

1. Jeff Sagarin Ratings (as compiled by Jim Sukup)

www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php

2. Ken Massey Rankings
www.masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratings

3. Classic LRMC (Logistic Regression/Markov Chain)
www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmcclassicW/

4. Bayesian LRMC (supposedly the most accurate predictor of Tourney success)
www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmcW/

I'm not a mathematician or statistician, but I can copy/paste with the best of 'em.

[kiyoat]

right now:

Sagarin---------Massey----------LRMC------------BLRMC

49 SDSU----38 SDSU----45 SDSU-------30 SDSU
71 USD------61 USD-----50 USD--------46 USD
88 IUPUI-------94 IUPUI------123 IUPUI--------115 IUPUI
101 ORU-------99 ORU--------177 ORU----------178 ORU
142 W ILL------134 W ILL-----204 Omaha-------220 Omaha
165 Omaha----166 Omaha----210 W ILL--------222 W Ill
274 Denver----280 Denver----251 Ft Wayne----265 Ft Wayne
308 NDSU------321 NDSU-----261 Denver------287 Denver
313 Ft Wayne--324 Ft Wayne--285 NDSU-------303 NDSU

Interesting how they all agree on the top 4, and correlate pretty well on the rest.

If the two SD schools are rated this high at the end of the year, I think we are looking at a two-bid league...............

[usdtator]

Once again, good job on digging out the stats and posting them for all of us.

[Coyote Fan]

www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18325123/gonzaga-bulldogs-take-top-spot-espnw-mid-major-rankings

This week the Coyotes debut at #7 in ESPN Women's Basketball mid major rankings.

[gopheryote]

Thanks for doing this Kiyoat! Great stuff, and requires some digging for WBB - it is really appreciated!

[kiyoat]

No problem! Hey- it beats working.......

[kiyoat]

based on these rankings (as well as RPI), it appears that there is a clear distinction bwtween the "contenders"

SDSU
USD
IUPUI
Oral Roberts

the "wildcards"

West Ill
Omaha

and the "not good"

NDSU
Denver
Fort Wayne

Although a lot can change in 3 months...

[Coyote Fan]

I agree with those rankings but I might be inclined to move Western Illinois up a tier. They have had a good non conference season so far.

[kiyoat]

I just realized the LRMC Rankings have not been updated since last year....

Here are Sagarin and Massey (updated through yesterday's games)

Sagarin------------Massey

48 SDSU----------41 SDSU
77 USD------------55 USD
83 IUPUI----------81 ORU
89 ORU-----------85 IUPUI
135 West Ill------129 West Ill
166 Omaha-------176 Omaha

267 Denver-------271 Denver
299 NDSU--------311 NDSU
308 Ft Wayne----318 Ft Wayne

[kiyoat]

Sagarin and Massey Ratings update after SDSU win:

Sagarin---------------Massey

56 SDSU-------------45 SDSU
78 USD--------------50 USD
81 IUPUI--------------78 ORU
90 ORU----------------80 IUPUI
137 WIU---------------138 WIU
158 UNO---------------178 UNO

261 Denver------------284 Denver
283 NDSU--------------290 NDSU
315 IPFW--------------321 IPFW

[kiyoat]

Sagarin and Massey Ratings update after loss to NDSU:

Sagarin----------------Massey

58 SDSU--------------40 SDSU
87 ORU-----------------77 ORU
95 IUPUI---------------79 USD
104 USD----------------94 IUPUI
127 WIU----------------133 WIU
132 UNO----------------149 UNO

266 NDSU---------------261 NDSU
270 Denver-------------290 Denver
313 IPFW---------------316 IPFW

[kiyoat]

Sagarin and Massey Ratings update after beating IUPUI:

Sagarin----------------Massey

60 SDSU---------------42 SDSU
87 ORU-----------------73 USD
91 USD-----------------88 ORU
99 IUPUI---------------102 IUPUI
120 WIU----------------121 WIU
129 UNO----------------149 UNO

256 NDSU---------------254 NDSU
265 Denver-------------288 Denver
312 IPFW---------------317 IPFW

[kiyoat]

After Beating ORU:

52 SDSU-------------44 SDSU
80 USD---------------64 USD
104 IUPUI--------------100 IUPUI
106 ORU----------------102 ORU
120 WIU----------------113 WIU
138 UNO----------------162 UNO

259 NDSU---------------251 NDSU
263 Denver-------------285 Denver
312 IPFW---------------315 IPFW

[kiyoat]

Update after beating UNO: (adding LRMC and B-LRMC Ratings)

Sagarin-----Massey-----LRMC-------BLRMC

48 SDSU---34 SDSU---58 SDSU---46 SDSU
78 USD-----56 USD-----79 USD----67 USD
108 IUPUI----107 IUPUI---97 IUPUI----91 IUPUI
111 ORU-----108 ORU----106 WIU----97 ORU
119 WIU-----114 WIU----112 ORU----98 WIU
141 UNO-----167 UNO----152 UNO----147 UNO

258 Denver--254 NDSU---214 Denver-212 Denver
262 NDSU----281 Denver-239 NDSU---238 NDSU
312 IPFW----321 IPFW----309 IPFW----305 IPFW

[kiyoat]

These rankings have not changed much, so I'll update them on Sunday or Monday.