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Post by aldewitt on Oct 22, 2018 7:00:07 GMT -6
Problem for The Yotes: There is a strength index (SI) calculated by the GAM measuring how well a team has performed against their opponents on both sides of the ball. 1 = parity. USD is a little better than their average opponent. NDSU a lot better. SI: For comparison: - SDSU .87
- The Ducks .77
- UNI .75
- ILS .73
This has to be made up. How? Pick any combination: - neutralizing game plan
- big plays
- turnovers
- exceptional play
- etc
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 23, 2018 6:18:50 GMT -6
Lots of experts think the MVFC should get 5 playoff spots. It's probably because the statistics are battle tested and competitive with any teams in the country whose statics may not be as battle tested.
That means this season is no where near over. Many are saying there are going to be 4 & 5 loss teams.
Saturday needs to be a good game. It's not going to hurt USD either, it can only help. UNI was convincingly defeated but went on to play some good football. The Coyotes have a great opportunity to finish strong. They need 3 wins to make the playoffs.
6-5 could do it.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 24, 2018 5:18:33 GMT -6
What a game week this is with the monolithic shadow of the NDSU Bison cast over the Dakota Dome. It almost reminds me of the orchs of Mordor marching down from the North. How exciting it would be to have an insight into how the Coyotes are preparing for the game. What the game plan is going to be. - Simple and direct at first to establish physical equality?
- Come out with our strengths on display with the passing game. Find the soft spot and pass into it?
- Read option with roll out, receivers downfield and a running back to take advantage of misdirection and over-pursuit?
All great upsets start somewhere. Anybody remember how they did it in Fargo? Don't tell me the Bison were flat, they got beat by USD not themselves. You can bet that game plan is on the table. My guess is they have and are looking at some other game plans too, maybe Bison at Iowa or Bison and KSU, a couple more great upsets.
The game plan started yesterday. What is happening with the team today is part of the game plan they are unfolding.
Not being on the road complicates it a little bit. More distraction. But if it ever was the world against us it's Saturday.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 26, 2018 3:11:02 GMT -6
This game has Dakota College Football Championship (DCFC) implications. A USD loss gives it to the Bison outright. A USD wins pushes the reckoning forward to the SDSU game.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 27, 2018 7:39:00 GMT -6
The Call:
NDSU @ USD
PREDICTED WINNER: NDSU
SPREAD: -11
OVER/UNDER: 55
MYTHICAL SCORE: 33-22
Take USD, the points and go with the under. Uptown they are giving USD fans 23.5.
To win they have to play KSU good. Lately things have been slipping. Not much though. Its just a few minutes or a few plays from being a lot different this year.
The difference between the two teams is not that great. The question is the talent level. Is NDSU recruiting above and beyond the FCS? Probably, just look at the line they have to the NFL. Lots of players and some coaches move up attracting a lot of interest from top prospects. That's part of the thinking that got the line extended to 23.5 this morning.
KSU has all of that too and better. The Bison may have beaten KSU this year but it's very doubtful it would have been by 23.5 points.
Coyote fans have every reason to believe this game will mirror the KSU game. It should be a good game and a competitive one, but like 5 Dimes indicates, if it starts to get a way from the Coyotes it could turn into an NDSU boat race, at least for a while. NDSU isn't in the habit of running up huge scores like 90 point wins. Take the under.
Tailgate should be good with a "BIG game atmosphere".
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 28, 2018 2:21:42 GMT -6
Unfortunately none of the KSU game spirit could be found. I hate comparative scores because you could now infer that NDSU, UNI, WSU and YSU are much, much better tha KSU. The guys just aren’t there yet to replace what was lost from last year.
If playoffs are are still possible it’s no doubt they have to win out.
Look at the The upsets yesterday. Every game but this one was an upset. No game is a gimme in the MVFC. The Yotes have a lot to play for. They want some success for their hard work by leaving a winning record. The next few weeks are tough but there is opportunity directly ahead. I hope the Yotes reach out and grab it. A big rallying win would make it all worthwhile.
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Post by easmus on Oct 28, 2018 19:14:47 GMT -6
Cannot have another season winless after homecoming.
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 29, 2018 6:15:20 GMT -6
AS OF OCTOBER 29: All games are based on season statistics A VIRTUAL LOOK AT THE USD SEASON: SEASON RECORD: 3 -5
THE GAM: 4-4
ORIGINAL SEASON PREDICTION: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 6-5
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 7-4
| WK | GAME | PWL | My SCORE | AWL | Actual | | 1 | USD @ KSU | L | 28-22 KSU | L | 27-24 KSU | | 2 | UNC @ USD | W | 23-15 USD | W | 43-28 USD | | 3 | USD @ WSU | W | 32-18 USD | L | 27-10 WSU | | 4 | USD @ SIU | L | 36-35 SIU | W | 31-24 USD | | 6 | MSU @ USD | W | 32-27 USD | W | 35-28 USD | | 7 | UNI @ USD | W | 29-28 USD | L | 42-28 UNI | | 8 | USD @ YSU | W | 29-27 USD | L | 29-17 YSU | | 10/27 | NDSU @ USD | L | 36-22 NDSU | L | N/A | | 11/3 | USD @ ISUb | W | 33-28 ISUb | |
| | 11/10 | WIU @ USD | W | 31-29 USD** |
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| | 11/17 | USD @ SDSU | L | 37-28 SDSU*** |
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Post by aldewitt on Oct 30, 2018 2:12:04 GMT -6
This game has Dakota College Football Championship (DCFC) implications. A USD loss gives it to the Bison outright. A USD wins pushes the reckoning forward to the SDSU game. Congratulations to The NDSU Bison! They are the out right winners and champions of The Dacotah College Football Championship. The best college football team in the Dacotahs! |
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 3, 2018 4:41:44 GMT -6
It’s game day. Win or lose the playoff pic looks shaky at best. USD is no longer a fixture in the playoff discussions. In fact some are saying the Valley is down a bit this year and may get fewer picks.
The best thing right now: forget the playoffs. Today’s game is all there is. This is the big game. Win it and build to the SDSU game, the last mountain on the schedule. Lose it and things might go down hill and the season may lose its meaning.
3-0 would be a great way to end. 0-3. Not so good.
The Coyotes are playing for next year. A strong finish means a stronger start. This is a big game.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 5, 2018 5:58:46 GMT -6
AS OF NOVEMBER 5: can't get more exciting than last week. Two football games worth for sure! Could have won, but right now winning isn't everything. The tree of winning can blind the eye and you won't see the beautiful forest of the game and all that goes with it. This week The Game promises to be everything last week was. Games don't have the potential to be as good as this all the time. All games are based on season statistics A VIRTUAL LOOK AT THE USD SEASON: SEASON RECORD: 3 - 6
THE GAM: 4-5
ORIGINAL SEASON PREDICTION: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 6-5
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 4-7 | WK | GAME | PWL | My SCORE | AWL | Actual | | 1 | USD @ KSU | L | 28-22 KSU | L | 27-24 KSU | | 2 | UNC @ USD | W | 23-15 USD | W | 43-28 USD | | 3 | USD @ WSU | W | 32-18 USD | L | 27-10 WSU | | 4 | USD @ SIU | L | 36-35 SIU | W | 31-24 USD | | 6 | MSU @ USD | W | 32-27 USD | W | 35-28 USD | | 7 | UNI @ USD | W | 29-28 USD | L | 42-28 UNI | | 8 | USD @ YSU | W | 29-27 USD | L | 29-17 YSU | | 10/27 | NDSU @ USD | L | 36-22 NDSU | L | N/A | | 11/3 | USD @ ISUb | W | 33-28 ISUb | L | 48-51 | | 11/10 | WIU @ USD | L | 31-28 WIU |
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| | 11/17 | USD @ SDSU | L | 37-28 SDSU |
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The losing streak says it all but It's getting near dawn It wasn't that long ago: Summer still clung to the land and winter seemed a long way off. The team was facing some uncertainty but things looked good. The KSU game was a great start yet disappointing knowing the Yotes could have won as easily as they lost. Now winter is on our doorstep. It's time to forget what might have been. It's time to celebrate what might yet be. Eat drink and be merry! What might be the most exciting game of the season is coming our way! I've been waiting so long To be where I'm going |
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 5, 2018 7:44:21 GMT -6
The Call: PREDICTED WINNER: WIU Leathernecks
SPREAD: WIU -3
OVER/UNDER: 59
MYTHICAL SCORE: USD 28 WIU 31TAKE USD, THE POINTS AND THE OVER. The GAM sees a narrow WIU win and with good reason. Evenly matched as they are there are slight differences. WIU has held opponents to: - 61 fewer points; 6.7/game
- 1,007 fewer yards; 112/per game
Together that is certainly deserving of a slight edge. To sharpen the edge: - Beat YSU 45-38
- Lost to Bison 34-7
- Beat UNI 37-17
- Beat then #15 Montana 31-27
With all of that the GAM still has this games probable outcome decided by only 3 points. Home field has been computed to be 2.43 by people that know how to do that. That makes this game a toss-up forcing me to split from the GAM and call the upset. Why: - Losing streak must be snapped
- USD has slowly been improving the run to 120 yds/game
- It is slightly tougher to score on the USD defense
- It is slightly easier for the USD offense to score
- USD is better in the red zone 85% - 77%
- USD plays a slightly stronger second half, winning the 3rd qtr decisively but losing the 4th in similar fashion.
Miscellaneous things USD has to tend to: - TOP favors WIU by about 5 minutes/game
- WIU has a 3rd down conversion rate of 41% vs 39% for the Yotes
- USD has lost every quarter but the third.
- WIU has won the 1 & 2nd quarters, lost the 3rd & 4th
Of all days this will be the day for the Yotes to be a strong second half team.
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Post by aldewitt on Nov 11, 2018 7:28:34 GMT -6
AS OF NOVEMBER 11: All games are based on season statistics A VIRTUAL LOOK AT THE USD SEASON: SEASON RECORD: 4 - 6
THE GAM: 4-6
ORIGINAL SEASON PREDICTION: 7-4
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME LAST WEEK: 4-7
PREDICTED SEASON OUTCOME THIS WEEK: 4-7 | WK | GAME | PWL | My SCORE | AWL | Actual | | 1 | USD @ KSU | L | 28-22 KSU | L | USD 27- KSU 24 | | 2 | UNC @ USD | W | 23-15 USD | W | UNC 43-USD 28 | | 3 | USD @ WSU | W | 32-18 USD | L | USD 27- WSU 10 | | 4 | USD @ SIU | L | 36-35 SIU | W | SIU 31-24 USD | | 6 | MSU @ USD | W | 32-27 USD | W | MSU 35-28 USD | | 7 | UNI @ USD | W | 29-28 USD | L | USD 42-28 UNI | | 8 | USD @ YSU | W | 29-27 USD | L | USD 29-17 YSU | | 10/27 | NDSU @ USD | L | 36-22 NDSU | L | N/A | | 11/3 | USD @ ISUb | W | 33-28 ISUb | L | USD 48-51 ISUb | | 11/10 | WIU @ USD | L* | 31-28 WIU | W | USD 17 - WIU 12 | | 11/17 | USD @ SDSU | L | SDSU |
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* GAM guided a successful 2 out of 3 call: USD to win, cover the spread and take the over. The spread was USD -1 but it wasn't the offensive show I expected. With both teams having explosive passing games big offensive output was indicated. Instead we saw both teams bring the hammer on defense. |
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Post by thebacksackdad on Nov 11, 2018 19:24:29 GMT -6
This is a secret so sssshhhhhh....USD FOOTBALL IS GOING TO SDSU FOR THE WIN!!! Yes... it's a bold comment... but we own the BOOM SHAKALAKA BAAAAABBBBBBYYYYYYY!!!! (And its going to happen). MARK MY WORDS! USD FANS BEST SHOW UP, or ur admitting defeat...LET'S GO YOTES!!! ... this is all about next season!
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Post by thebacksackdad on Nov 11, 2018 19:27:40 GMT -6
This is a secret so sssshhhhhh....USD FOOTBALL IS GOING TO SDSU FOR THE WIN!!! Yes... it's a bold comment... but we own the BOOM SHAKALAKA BAAAAABBBBBBYYYYYYY!!!! (And its going to happen). MARK MY WORDS! USD FANS BEST SHOW UP, or ur admitting defeat...LET'S GO YOTES!!! ... this is all about next season! REPRESENT!!!!! |
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