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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 8:32:47 GMT -6
Massey has us winning:
77-59
Even though that score has us slightly above our season average of 76.7, it is below our conference average of 82.7. So it is actually giving their defense some credit, as arrogant as that sounds. Even though the SDSU 2OT game may have inflated our average conference scoring a bit, that predicted score is still lower than what Massey is predicting for the bulk of our conference opponents. So, again, their defense is above average for the conference, according to Massey.
For offense it is a different story. This League seems to be built around high-scoring offenses, and the stats bear that out. USD's average opponent score is 60.0, but the conference average (vs. USD) is 69.2.
I could see us scoring a little less. Home court advantage varies, and I think Grand Forks has a decent one. I'll go:
73-62
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 10:03:28 GMT -6
I think the biggest disparity between these teams from a statistical standpoint would have to be turnovers.
USD committing 13.4 TO (#1 Summit) UND forcing 15.9 (#5)
UND committing 18.6 TO (#9 Summit) USD forcing 18.4 (#1)
Average it out and it adds up to NET 4 more possessions, or about 4 points, give or take. Also, USD is really good at scoring off of turnovers, so that amplifies the affect. Call it 5 or 6 points conservatively.
Both teams are good rebounders, but USD is a little better, to the tune of about 4 possessions. Add turnovers and rebounding together and you have 8 more possessions, or an 8 to 10 point advantage. That's huge. Even if we have a poor shooting day, its hard to overcome ball control like that.
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Post by elcoyote on Jan 24, 2019 10:51:52 GMT -6
I think the biggest disparity between these teams from a statistical standpoint would have to be turnovers. USD committing 13.4 TO (#1 Summit) UND forcing 15.9 (#5) UND committing 18.6 TO (#9 Summit) USD forcing 18.4 (#1) Average it out and it adds up to NET 4 more possessions, or about 4 points, give or take. Also, USD is really good at scoring off of turnovers, so that amplifies the affect. Call it 5 or 6 points conservatively. Both teams are good rebounders, but USD is a little better, to the tune of about 4 possessions. Add turnovers and rebounding together and you have 8 more possessions, or an 8 to 10 point advantage. That's huge. Even if we have a poor shooting day, its hard to overcome ball control like that. Great analysis! |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 13:09:00 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 19:32:02 GMT -6
19-9 shortly after the 1st Q. 2nd chance points plus points off turnovers total for each team = 9-0
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Post by Yotes on Jan 24, 2019 19:35:42 GMT -6
Alex Heinert just mentioned we are the first team in Summit League history to beat two ranked teams in one season. I'm actually surprised to learn this.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 20:43:44 GMT -6
Wow. This game is out of hand. Basically paralleling the beat down the Jacks just put on the Bison.
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Post by GoYotes on Jan 24, 2019 20:59:28 GMT -6
I thought you were a little rough on the F'n Hawks with the thread title, but UND is living up to the thugs title.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 21:16:43 GMT -6
I thought you were a little rough on the F'n Hawks with the thread title, but UND is living up to the thugs title. Just a little throwback jab at our own girls from the crybaby Cyclone fan. You remember that guy, right? Definitely a physical game, though. A “cartilage” game of knees and elbows... |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 21:37:14 GMT -6
I think the biggest disparity between these teams from a statistical standpoint would have to be turnovers. USD committing 13.4 TO (#1 Summit) UND forcing 15.9 (#5) UND committing 18.6 TO (#9 Summit) USD forcing 18.4 (#1) Average it out and it adds up to NET 4 more possessions, or about 4 points, give or take. Also, USD is really good at scoring off of turnovers, so that amplifies the affect. Call it 5 or 6 points conservatively. Both teams are good rebounders, but USD is a little better, to the tune of about 4 possessions. Add turnovers and rebounding together and you have 8 more possessions, or an 8 to 10 point advantage. That's huge. Even if we have a poor shooting day, its hard to overcome ball control like that. We were 23 vs 17 (+6) in forced turnovers, and scored 28 vs 10 points (+18) off of turnovers! Thats insane. They got 16 offensive rebounds, leading to 12 2nd chance points We only had 9 offensive rebounds, leading to 2 2nd chance points UND is the worst shooting efficiency team in the conference and we somehow got them to shoot even worse. (24%/7%) That's a far cry from the Denver game. There were 63 personal fouls in the game. |
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 21:41:30 GMT -6
Sjerven was 2-3 from the arc! If she can keep that up, it will give teams fits trying to cover her with bigs. That will be a factor in the post-season, whether NCAA or WNIT.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 21:42:16 GMT -6
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Post by elcoyote on Jan 24, 2019 22:12:29 GMT -6
That second half was about as much fun to watch as a trip to the dentist. Seemed to me UND wanted to turn it into a brawl to hopefully get us off our game. Loved them bringing the full court pressure in the 4th quarter when they're down by 40. That's some savvy coaching right there.
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Post by kiyoat on Jan 24, 2019 23:15:05 GMT -6
That second half was about as much fun to watch as a trip to the dentist. Seemed to me UND wanted to turn it into a brawl to hopefully get us off our game. Loved them bringing the full court pressure in the 4th quarter when they're down by 40. That's some savvy coaching right there. Yeah. I don't mean to pile on after a humiliating loss, but I've never been impressed with Brewster. Even when we played them three years ago. Both in interviews and on the sideline he strikes me as somewhat uninterested. I know that's pretty unfair, since I don't know the guy, but that's always been my impression. I mean, the guy is in his seventh year coaching there, so they are all his kids. He is a 2x COY in the BSC (winning the conference both times), including two years ago. But despite all of that, the team we played today didn't look like a "rebuilding year" team. They look like they need a new coach, new players or both. |
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Post by elcoyote on Jan 24, 2019 23:25:15 GMT -6
That second half was about as much fun to watch as a trip to the dentist. Seemed to me UND wanted to turn it into a brawl to hopefully get us off our game. Loved them bringing the full court pressure in the 4th quarter when they're down by 40. That's some savvy coaching right there. Yeah. I don't mean to pile on after a humiliating loss, but I've never been impressed with Brewster. Even when we played them three years ago. Both in interviews and on the sideline he strikes me as somewhat uninterested. I know that's pretty unfair, since I don't know the guy, but that's always been my impression. I mean, the guy is in his seventh year coaching there, so they are all his kids. He is a 2x COY in the BSC (winning the conference both times), including two years ago. But despite all of that, the team we played today didn't look like a "rebuilding year" team. They look like they need a new coach, new players or both. They have six seniors on their roster so this should be in no way, shape or form a rebuilding year. After being national powers for so long it's hard to believe what women's hoops has morphed into at both schools in our neighbor to the north. |
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