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Post by kiyoat on Feb 14, 2019 9:58:18 GMT -6
So the Coyotes finally broke through to the Top 25, and now officially have a bounty on their heads. The Leathernecks likely didn't need any additional motivation, as we seem to get our opponent's best shot anyway. But this road trip now represents an even bigger upset opportunity for them. We should expect a good effort from the Leathernecks, and maybe a return to their unique zone defense? Who knows.
This 2019 version of the Leathernecks has been very inconsistent defensively and has displayed poor rebounding and post play, .... but any decent 3-point shooting team can get hot and be dangerous in this league. Any of: WIU ORU and Denver can be that dangerous spoiler team this year IMO. We should have a good game-plan for this one.
Massey has us winning:
85-69. So a relatively high-scoring game.
Last time we played them, they were cold from the arc, and couldn't do anything to slow down Sjerven and Frederick from scoring in the paint. Even Peplowski in garbage time. Sjerven and/or Lamb could be a little hobbled, so our depth might be called upon. Honestly I'd rather see them not play if they are not 90-100%. We can still win this conference as a 2-seed, if it absolutely comes to that. Rankings and RPI are great, but I'd rather just see us win the SLT with a healthy Sjerven going into the post-season.
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Post by usdcoyote on Feb 14, 2019 10:17:36 GMT -6
Sjerven and/or Lamb could be a little hobbled, so our depth might be called upon. Honestly I'd rather see them not play if they are not 90-100%. We can still win this conference as a 2-seed, if it absolutely comes to that. Rankings and RPI are great, but I'd rather just see us win the SLT with a healthy Sjerven going into the post-season. I don't know man, I don't think we can afford to give up any of these games. I know this is going to be unpopular, but I think our best chance to make it will be as an at large. I would say SDSU is the favorites to win the SLT. It took us 3 OT's to beat them in front of a packed house in Vermillion. I've seen the way we played against them the last couple of times in Sioux Falls. I don't have a great feeling about the SLT, which makes the regular season all the more important. To have any chance for an at large we can't afford to lose to anyone else, except maybe SDSU, and even that (coupled with another loss in the SLT) could be enough to knock us out of an at large. |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 14, 2019 10:38:09 GMT -6
^ fair point. I can see both arguments. My main point is that none of it matters much if Sjerven re-aggravates her ankle injury. We are a completely different team with her size and athleticism in the paint. I think she will be even more valuable in the post-season against Power-5/6 teams.
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Post by gopheryote on Feb 14, 2019 10:42:25 GMT -6
I don't know man, I don't think we can afford to give up any of these games. I know this is going to be unpopular, but I think our best chance to make it will be as an at large. I would say SDSU is the favorites to win the SLT. It took us 3 OT's to beat them in front of a packed house in Vermillion. I've seen the way we played against them the last couple of times in Sioux Falls. I don't have a great feeling about the SLT, which makes the regular season all the more important. To have any chance for an at large we can't afford to lose to anyone else, except maybe SDSU, and even that (coupled with another loss in the SLT) could be enough to knock us out of an at large. I tend to agree with this - treat every game through the rest of the regular season like it is a NCAA play-in game, and not in 'building for the SLT mode'. The Yotes have a rare opportunity to make the SLT irrelevant. That said - and at the risk of riling up the rabbit trolls - I thought SDSU played near flawless in round 1 (though I disagreed with the commitment to fouling once they were in obvious foul trouble), and the Yotes were in a bit of a slump going into that game (had lost 2 of 3 and didn't look good in the 2 prior W's either). In retrospect, it was that W that propelled them to get on a roll and get the defensive swagger back (SDSU had 80 in regulation after giving up 104 to DU a few days earlier) that was lacking up through the SDSU game. |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 14, 2019 11:25:42 GMT -6
Leaving most of the other stats aside, I was curious how Western's offensive success over the last four games matches up with their opponent's conference averages.
Here is WIU's offense in 4 stats:
opponent--points---FG%--3PT%--#3PT
vs. UND-----111------61.4---60.0-----15
vs. NDSU----82-------50.8---41.7------5
@ PFW-------90-------55.4---50.0-----12
@ Omaha----79-------43.3---23.8------5
vs. USD------??-------??.?----??.?------?
Here is WIU's offense vs their own conference average:
opponent--points---FG%--3PT%--#3PT
vs. UND-----+32----+16.2--+26.0-----+6.7
vs. NDSU----+3------+5.6---+7.7------(3.3)
@ PFW------+11----+10.2--+16.0-----+3.7
@ Omaha---+00-----(1.9)---(10.2)----(3.3)
vs. USD------??-------??.?----??.?------?
Here is WIU's offense vs opponent's defense average (conference)
opponent--points---FG%--3PT%--#3PT
vs. UND-----+36----+17.5---+20.6----+7.8
vs. NDSU----+8------+5.0-----(0.6)----(1.5)
@ PFW------+18----+11.5---+17.5----+5.6
@ Omaha----+2-----(23.0)---(13.0)---(2.3)
averages---+16----+2.8----+6.1---+2.4
(projected)
vs. USD-----76Pts----41%-----39%----10 3-pointers
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 14, 2019 11:36:56 GMT -6
^ so, what I learned from that excercise is that Western blew the doors off North Dakota and Fort Wayne with high volume/high efficiency 3-point shooting. But in the other two games, they had average (NDSU) or below-average (UNO) arc-shooting, but still managed to beat them. no pattern with home/away. Overall, they have shot better than their average from the field against three of the opponents, and below-average against Omaha.
The overall picture is that of a team that lives/dies by the 3. When they are hot, they can drop 12-15 treys in a game. Dangerous, indeed.
Averaging their performance in the last four games vs. their opponent's defensive averages, I came up with a projected average performance vs. USD (using our defensive averages)
76 points, 41/39 shooting and 10 treys. That would be a more competitive game than Massey projects. I'll say we still score a bunch, though. My prediction:
88-76
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Post by Men's League Waterboy on Feb 14, 2019 18:28:22 GMT -6
^ fair point. I can see both arguments. My main point is that none of it matters much if Sjerven re-aggravates her ankle injury. We are a completely different team with her size and athleticism in the paint. I think she will be even more valuable in the post-season against Power-5/6 teams. This is spot on. Definitely held my breath when she went down the other day. |
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Post by kiyoat on Feb 16, 2019 12:49:34 GMT -6
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Post by coyotecrazie5 on Feb 16, 2019 18:28:15 GMT -6
Yotes win 83-61
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Post by elcoyote on Feb 16, 2019 18:35:36 GMT -6
Nice! A doubleheader sweep on the road. I was worried about this game as WIU can be tough, but they just don't seem to be able to match up with our posts at all and then good perimeter defense limits their threes. Sjerven, for the second time, just ate them alive and Frederick had a solid game too. Can't complain when you get 37 from the post position and Sjerven managed 20 in only 18 minutes. I guess you could call that an efficient use of time. Next game against Denver should be a fun one.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2019 19:52:34 GMT -6
Nice! A doubleheader sweep on the road. I was worried about this game as WIU can be tough, but they just don't seem to be able to match up with our posts at all and then good perimeter defense limits their threes. Sjerven, for the second time, just ate them alive and Frederick had a solid game too. Can't complain when you get 37 from the post position and Sjerven managed 20 in only 18 minutes. I guess you could call that an efficient use of time. Next game against Denver should be a fun one. Points per 40 minutes. |
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