Earlier today I had to ask myself if Air Force is the toughest opponent we have on our non-conference schedule. I then saw that Air Force went 5-20 last year and have to assume they are not. This led me to dive a little deeper, and holy smokes we have a weak non-conference schedule. I haven't paid any attention to the schedule until now and decided to rank our opponents with some quick amateur analysis (note: I didn't bother looking at any roster or coaching changes):
1. Drake is resoundingly our toughest non-conference opponent. I forgot that they went to the NCAA tourney last year and won a "First Four" game. Preseason favorite to win the Missouri Valley.
2. Our only Power 5 opponent, Nebraska lost to Western Illinois last night to open year 3 under Fred Hoiberg. Bad omen for a team that's won 5 conference games the last 2 years. Picked 11th in Big Ten preseason poll.
3. Bellarmine, a school that began their D1 transition last year. Besides Drake, they are the only non-conference opponent we face that actually had a winning record last year. Picked 4th in the Atlantic Sun preseason poll. I considered putting Bellarmine 2nd but travelling to Lincoln will be harder than hosting these guys.
4. Northern Colorado went 8-11 against D1 competition last year. 1 more win than Nebraska but against much lesser competition. Picked 5th in Big Sky preseason poll.
5. Air Force went 5-20 but did find two wins over decent Mountain West teams during a real long 3-17 conference campaign. Picked last in preseason Mountain West Poll.
6. Southern also posted a 8-11 record against D1 competition last year, same as UNC, but plays in what is consistently the worst conference in the NCAA. Picked 5th in SWAC preseason poll.
7. Northern Arizona went 6-16. 3 of those wins were against Idaho and Denver, who each won 1 game, but they did get 3 more against middle-of-the-pack Big Sky teams. Picked 9th in Big Sky preseason poll.
8. San Jose State went 3-16 against D1 competition, with 2 of those wins coming against Air Force. The third came against a 2 win New Mexico team. All 3 wins happened in the same week in January. Picked 10th (only ahead of Air Force) in preseason Mountain West poll.
9. Tennessee State. 3-19 against D1 schools, wins against Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee Tech, and Eastern Illinois. These guys don't look dramatically worse than the rest, but someone had to finish last. Picked 5th in OVC preseason poll.
It would be nice to have more than one Power 5 team on the schedule. Otherwise, I can't get mad about a schedule of Big Sky, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, OVC, ASUN games. These are conferences we are supposed to play. Still, this schedule is astoundingly weak. I'll mostly chalk it up to "luck of the draw". I think everyone agreed that we have a team that's going to be doing more learning than most during the non-conference season, but I'm not sure we don't go 7-2 against this slate anyways.