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Post by kiyoat on Aug 31, 2021 8:03:29 GMT -6
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Post by kiyoat on Aug 31, 2021 8:04:44 GMT -6
AVCA Poll (August 30)www.avca.org/polls/di-women/8-30-2021.htmlRelevant teams: #4 Nebraska (moved up one) will play Omaha this weekend #10 Minnesota (moved down 3) will play St. Thomas #12 Louisville (moved up one) will play USD this weekend#26 Creighton (moved up one) played KC, and will play Omaha and USD #31 Denver (getting 7 votes!)#33 Illinois will play Omaha Denver's profile went up with pollsters after beating USC, now their non-con schedule gets easier, so they have a good chance at maintaining votes and RPI. This is good for us, and really reminds me of the SDSU/USD WBB situation. The two programs benefit from the rival's accolades, both in national attention and in the RPI. Missouri may have been getting votes last week, but are now 0-3. They will still improve our conference's RPI simply by being in a P-5 conference and playing that SEC schedule. Omaha now has three opponents getting votes. Brutal schedule that will help raise the collective RPI. I could see them beating Illinois, though. Maybe Creighton, although the Jays look pretty formidable this year.
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Post by kiyoat on Aug 31, 2021 10:03:13 GMT -6
So I have a new source for volleyball predictions/ projections. There is an algorithm-based advanced metric called "Pablo" that does rankings and predictions. Basically this would be analogous to something like Pomeroy or Sagarin or Massey, but specific to volleyball. The problem is that these rankings/predictions are only accessible with a premium membership to Rich Kern's website: www.richkern.com/vb/FreePage.aspRich Kern uses the Pablo results, but he also has his own separate rankings (he isn't the creator of Pablo). But since all are premium, I won't concern myself with that site. Instead, a poster at Volleytalk.com that has access to those rankings uses them to make his own weekly "RPI Futures" poll. This is what I'll be looking at. The "RPI futures" is basically a combination of Pablo predictions for every future match on each team's schedule, and then projecting that team's final RPI score at the end of the season. So it's a prediction of every D-1 team's final RPI. Good stuff. Here's a tweet from "Pablo" So let's take a look at USD and our opponents in the week 1 futures.......
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Post by kiyoat on Aug 31, 2021 10:24:53 GMT -6
Pablo RPI futures (final RPI predictions) for August 30: (selected teams)
RPI Future Rank (*) School - Conference - (Proj Wins-Losses) RPI Score - RPI Future SOS
3. (11) Louisville - Atlantic Coast - (23-5) .6875 - 1
16. (18) Creighton - Big East - (26-5) .6321 - 45
26. (134) Missouri - Southeastern - (20-11) .6036 - 27
40. (40) Denver - The Summit - (26-4) .5842 - 214
48. (66) South Dakota - The Summit - (20-7) .5757 - 99
72. (88) Wichita State - American Athletic - (21-11) .5597 - 91
77. (91) Kansas City - The Summit - (21-9) .5569 - 138
78. (59) Northern Colorado - Big Sky - (19-8) .5564 - 154
97. (103) Omaha - The Summit - (15-13) .5413 - 79
98. (80) Northwestern - Big Ten - (12-19) .5409 - 23
108. (179) Central Arkansas - Atlantic Sun - (16-9) .5332 - 178
110. (83) Northern Kentucky - Horizon - (17-11) .5327 - 131
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Post by kiyoat on Aug 31, 2021 10:30:35 GMT -6
So USD had an ending RPI of 50 last year, and in 2018 Denver had an ending RPI of 50 when they got an at-large bid, but I think that a rank of 40 is more likely to qualify of an at-large bid for a mid-major school (just like in basketball).
So if Denver gets to #40 they would have a good shot, and at #48 we would be likely on the outside of the bubble. We still have lots of opportunities to improve, and winning non-conference games we are predicted to lose is a good start. Northern Kentucky is our first opponent on Friday, and they will not be a pushover.
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Post by yoteforever on Aug 31, 2021 16:52:35 GMT -6
Nice job Kiyoat
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 7, 2021 8:13:23 GMT -6
Pablo-based RPI futures for Sept 6 (selected Coyote opponents):
RPI Futures Rank. (last week rank) - Conference (projected wins-losses - RPI Score - Strength of Schedule 3. (3) Louisville --------------- Atlantic Coast ----(24-4) - .6796 - 6 8. (16) Creighton ------------- Big East -----------(27-4) - .6498 - 46 38. (72) Wichita State -------- American Athletic (20-9) - .5772 - 76 45. (26) Missouri -------------- Southeastern ----(17-14) - .5737 - 28 64. (40) Denver ------------ The Summit ----(24-6) - .5615 - 233 71. (77) Kansas City ------- The Summit ----(21-9) - .5552 - 125 83. (48) South Dakota ----- The Summit ----(17-10) - .5513 - 94
85. (78) Northern Colorado --- Big Sky ----------(20-7) - .5510 - 209 91. (97) Omaha ------------- The Summit ---(17-11) - .5471 - 91 110. (110) Northern Kentucky - Horizon ---------(16-12) - .5323 - 109
125. (98) Northwestern -------- Big Ten ----------(10-21) - .5226 - 25
So the top Summit teams are still predicted to stay in the top-100 (like last year), which is good. None would be in at-large territory now, though. The way Omaha is playing right now, I'd put them at the top, but this model is still using some percentage of data from last year to make predictions, so that's the reason they aren't higher. Plenty of time for the Yotes to right the ship, but opportunities to get the overall conference RPI up is basically just the next two weekends.
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 13, 2021 14:12:57 GMT -6
Sept 13 AVCA Coaches Poll:
#5 Louisville (beat USD 3-0) #6 Nebraska (beat Omaha 3-2) #11 Minnesota (plays UST Thursday) #17 Creighton (plays USD Saturday, beat KC 3-0, beat Omaha 3-0)
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 13, 2021 16:17:28 GMT -6
Pablo-based RPI futures for Sept 6 (selected Coyote opponents): RPI Futures Rank. (last week rank) - Conference (projected wins-losses - RPI Score - Strength of Schedule3. (3) Louisville --------------- Atlantic Coast ----(24-4) - .6796 - 6 8. (16) Creighton ------------- Big East -----------(27-4) - .6498 - 46 38. (72) Wichita State -------- American Athletic (20-9) - .5772 - 76 45. (26) Missouri -------------- Southeastern ----(17-14) - .5737 - 28 64. (40) Denver ------------ The Summit ----(24-6) - .5615 - 23371. (77) Kansas City ------- The Summit ----(21-9) - .5552 - 12583. (48) South Dakota ----- The Summit ----(17-10) - .5513 - 9485. (78) Northern Colorado --- Big Sky ----------(20-7) - .5510 - 20991. (97) Omaha ------------- The Summit ---(17-11) - .5471 - 91110. (110) Northern Kentucky - Horizon ---------(16-12) - .5323 - 109 125. (98) Northwestern -------- Big Ten ----------(10-21) - .5226 - 25
Sept 13 RPI Futures Rank. (Prior Week rank) School - Conference (projected wins-losses [rounded] - RPI Score - RPI strength of schedule. 3. (3) Louisville ---------------- Atlantic Coast ----(25-3) - .6906 - 7 7. (8) Creighton ---------------- Big East ----------(28-3) - .6524 - 51 43. (38) Wichita State --------- American Athletic (20-9) - .5788 - 75 55. (71) Kansas City -------- The Summit ----(22-8) - .5643 - 14567. (85) Northern Colorado --- Big Sky -----------(20-7) - .5556 - 18970. (64) Denver ------------- The Summit ----(23-6) - .5545 - 26379. (83) South Dakota ------ The Summit ----(17-10) - .5488 - 10085. (138) Colorado State ------ Mountain West ---(17-10) - .5468 - 114107. (110) Northern Kentucky - Horizon ----------(16-11) - .5335 - 134 110. (125) Northwestern ------- Big Ten ----------(12-19) - .5329 - 30111. (91) Omaha ------------ The Summit ----(15-13) - .5326 - 85118. (139) Milwaukee ---------- Horizon -----------(19-11) - .5278 - 174 125. (45) Missouri -------------- Southeastern ----(11-20) - .5258 - 24
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 20, 2021 16:27:36 GMT -6
Pablo RPI futures Sept 20
Rank. (Last Week) School - Conference (proj. W/L - RPI Score - SOS rank
3. (3) Louisville ----------------- Atlantic Coast (25-3) - .6888 - 11 8. (7) Creighton ---------------- Big East (29-2) - .6514 - 66 70. (70) Denver ------------- The Summit (24-4) - .5587 - 282 75. (43) Wichita State --------- American Athletic (18-11) - .5594 - 79 77. (55) Kansas City -------- The Summit (22-8) - .5503 - 174 82. (67) Northern Colorado ---- Big Sky (20-7) - .5571 - 191 94. (85) Colorado State -------- Mountain West (16-11) - .5473 - 88 99. (118) Milwaukee ------------ Horizon (20-10) - .5400 - 180 108. (111) Omaha ------------ The Summit (16-12) - .5384 - 94 112. (153) Wyoming ------------ Mountain West (18-12) - .5302 - 127 132. (110) Northwestern -------- Big Ten (11-20) - .5212 - 30 143. (107) Northern Kentucky -- Horizon (15-12) - .5177 - 165 146. (79) South Dakota ------ The Summit (15-12) - .5177 - 132 148. (136) South Dakota State - The Summit (19-10) - .5196 - 231
Time for a wake-up call. We are better than our record, and Friday needs to start proving that. State isn't a pushover this year, but that's exactly what we need to do to them. Time to start climbing the ladder, knocking down conference opponents one by one like level bosses in a video game...
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Post by kiyoat on Sept 28, 2021 16:18:31 GMT -6
Pablo RPI Futures, Sept 27
Rank. (Last) School -------- Conference -------(W/L)- RPI Score - SOS
2. (3) Louisville -------------- Atlantic Coast -----(26-2) - .7019 - 11 9. (8) Creighton ------------- Big East ------------(29-2) - .6558 - 69 66. (82) Northern Colorado - Big Sky ------------(21-6) - .5639 - 173 70. (70) Denver ----------- The Summit -----(25-3) - .5620 - 276 71. (77) Kansas City ------ The Summit -----(23-7) - .5619 - 172 73. (94) Colorado State ----- Mountain West ----(18-9) - .5612 - 91 89. (99) Milwaukee ---------- Horizon ------------(21-9) - .5486 - 178 102. (108) Omaha -------- The Summit -----(17-11) - .5415 - 95 110. (75) Wichita State ------ American Athletic (16-13) - .5375 - 79 115. (143) Northern Kentucky - Horizon ---------(17-10) - .5334 - 162 133. (132) Northwestern ----- Big Ten -----------(10-21) - .5208 - 27 139. (146) South Dakota - The Summit -----(15-12) - .5166 - 133 152. (112) Wyoming --------- Mountain West ----(15-15) - .5107 - 129
Movin' on up?
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 4, 2021 15:37:03 GMT -6
RPI Futures (pablo) Oct 4
RPI(last week) school - conference (W/L) - RPI score - SOS
2. (2) Louisville ---------------- Atlantic Coast -----(27-1) - .7137 - 10 12. (9) Creighton -------------- Big East -----------(28-3) - .6431 - 68 66. (66) Northern Colorado --- Big Sky ------------(21-6) - .5653 - 174 67. (89) Milwaukee ------------ Horizon ------------(22-8) - .5652 - 145 73. (70) Denver ------------- The Summit -----(24-4) - .5620 - 273 86. (102) Omaha ------------ The Summit ----(18-10) - .5506 - 91 90. (71) Kansas City -------- The Summit -----(21-9) - .5466 - 180 92. (73) Colorado State -------- Mountain West ---(17-10) - .5450 - 99 96. (110) Wichita State -------- American Athletic (16-13) - .5423 - 81 112. (115) Northern Kentucky - Horizon -----------(17-9) - .5333 - 168 130. (139) South Dakota --- The Summit ----(15-12) - .5237 - 134
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 9, 2021 21:14:31 GMT -6
Summit standings Oct 9
1. Omaha 6-0 2. Denver 5-1 3. USD 5-1 4. Kansas City 4-2 5. Oral Roberts 4-2
6. SDSU 2-3 7. NDSU 2-5 8. WIU 2-5 9. UST 1-5 10. UND 0-7
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Post by kiyoat on Oct 12, 2021 8:21:47 GMT -6
RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities per Pablo of the remaining matches on the schedule.
rank. (Last week) School ------ conference (W/L) - RPI Score - SOS
2. (2) Louisville ----------------- Atlantic Coast (27-1) - .7159 - 9 10. (12) Creighton ------------- Big East (28-3) -------- .6500 - 64
60. (67) Milwaukee ------------ Horizon (23-7) --------- .5718 - 137 66. (73) Denver ------------- The Summit (24-4) -- .5671 - 261 71. (96) Wichita State --------- American Ath (18-11) - .5626 - 80 72. (66) Northern Colorado ---- Big Sky (21-6) --------- .5624 - 179 77. (86) Omaha ------------- The Summit (18-10) - .5565 - 88 88. (92) Colorado State -------- Mountain West (17-10) - .5493 - 104 90. (90) Kansas City -------- The Summit (21-9) --- .5477 - 180 103. (112) Northern Kentucky - Horizon (17-9) ---------- .5422 - 158 120. (130) South Dakota ---- The Summit (16-11) - .5304 - 118 126. (135) Northwestern ------- Big Ten (11-20) --------- .5268 - 32
If USD had played in that opening tournament, our RPI would be top-100, even if we had lost every match. Posting this list every week really illustrates how good our non-conference schedule was, and what an opportunity it was.
Oh well. perception is not reality. This team now still has the opportunity to earn a regular season title, and a great chance at winning the league tournament at home. It all starts with an upset win or two this week.
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Post by yoteforever on Oct 12, 2021 8:36:11 GMT -6
Most people on here are good fans of Coyote Athletics, but probably understand volleyball the least. My daughters played collegiately so I’ve had hours and hours of bleacher butt watching matches played.
The match with UNO is huge. UNO is an extremely good team. Earlier this year they took the University of Nebraska to a 5 set match and nearly pulled it off. So in football terms what’s that mean? It would equate to our Coyotes playing Oklahoma in football and getting beat on the last play of the game. Oklahoma isn’t the top team in the country but in the talk for playoffs. That’s what Nebraska volleyball is.
We need to pass and pass and pass and pass and pass well. If we do, our front row is as good as it gets. I could see Omaha getting better and better last year. They have the #2 or 3 coach in the league. Thank the good lord we have the #1 coach and assistant.
We need a split at minimum and sweep at home for the tournament seeding. Let’s Go Yotes
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