Post by Coyote Fan on Nov 15, 2021 23:20:28 GMT -6
after doing a quick google a hail mary in the NFL has a 9.9 percent chance of being completed. I know college is different but that just goes to show that a hail mary is not as big of a miracle as some would like to think. So practicing it or at least having a plan does make sense.
In my opinion generally during a hail mary there are multiple players that are at the point that a ball comes down. Maybe 3 defenders and 1 offensive player as an example. If there are multiple players and no one can get good position on the ball the chances of the ball being tipped around or upwards are actually pretty good. It is definitely a good idea for an offensive player to place himself behind where the ball is coming down to potentially catch a deflected ball. Another things that could definitely happen and was relatively close to happening is for the offensive player and defensive player to have multiple possession and in the case the catch is awarded to the offensive team. There could also potentially be a penalty called as well which if on the D could give the O another chance.
In a situation where a team may try a hail mary on 3rd and long if it is successful than it is either going to be a touchdown or very close to one. The other options would be to simply try to pick up a 3rd and long which most coaches would do. Or they can just try a run and likely punt or maybe setup a long field goal.
Even if a third and long is converted which is a tough play as well it does not guarantee a touchdown or field goal. The Hail Mary if successful either guarantees a touchdown or a very good chance at a touchdown. I am not saying for sure a hail mary should be tried but what I am saying is that thinking out of the box is not necessarily a bad thing.
I don't think Stig made a good decision at all with 8 seconds left trying to run out the clock by throwing it. I think it holds too much risk. As soon as I saw that formation I wanted the Coyotes to put on max pressure and they did for the most part. If the Coyotes hadn't pressured the QB the clock probably would have run out. If he would have used max protection and booted it away the clock would have just as likely run out on the punt via return or maybe rolling around too long. Even if it doesn't the chances of a return for a touchdown is a longer shot than a hail mary. If the Coyotes got the ball at the 20 it would have created a chance where a hail mary doesn't make as much sense and to throw short and try to hook and latter all the way down the field would seem to be very much a longshot.
The bottom line is that any good coach should always run through almost every scenario possible in a football game. That is the kind of thing you do in the easy chair over the summer. Stig did not seem to use logic there. Obviously the worst thing that can happen if for the Coyotes to get their hands on the ball in some fashion.
I believe a quick punt aimed to go out of bounds around the Coyote 20 should have been the Jacks goal. I think a blocked punt is not at all likely knowing all you need to do is get a quick punt off. Even if it is blocked there is a good chance it is not going to be returned all the way and the Coyotes would have still needed another play. The most likely way for the Coyotes to win is exactly what the Jacks allowed. They took a chance that they could run off 8 seconds which is actually quite a bit of time for a football play.
For me this is the order from most likely to least likely way the Coyotes could have won.
1) Hail Mary
2) Punt Return TD
3) Block Punt Return TD
4) Touchdown from their own 20 yard line with one play
I found it interesting that when the Jacks had the ball with just under 2:00 to play and many people started to leave I was telling the people around me that it is still too early for that. Unless a team can simply take a knee and doesn't have to run an actual play one should never leave a game. It was unlikely to result in a Coyote win but what is an extra 2 or 3 minutes, maybe 5 minutes to make sure a game is definitely over. I wonder how those fans are feeling and if they would even admit that they were in the parking lot or car when the Coyotes won the game. When the hail mary was over I had a lot of fans that probably though I was nuts but all it takes is one miracle finish and people will never make the same mistake again. Even when there was 8 seconds left it was definitely not over.
In my opinion generally during a hail mary there are multiple players that are at the point that a ball comes down. Maybe 3 defenders and 1 offensive player as an example. If there are multiple players and no one can get good position on the ball the chances of the ball being tipped around or upwards are actually pretty good. It is definitely a good idea for an offensive player to place himself behind where the ball is coming down to potentially catch a deflected ball. Another things that could definitely happen and was relatively close to happening is for the offensive player and defensive player to have multiple possession and in the case the catch is awarded to the offensive team. There could also potentially be a penalty called as well which if on the D could give the O another chance.
In a situation where a team may try a hail mary on 3rd and long if it is successful than it is either going to be a touchdown or very close to one. The other options would be to simply try to pick up a 3rd and long which most coaches would do. Or they can just try a run and likely punt or maybe setup a long field goal.
Even if a third and long is converted which is a tough play as well it does not guarantee a touchdown or field goal. The Hail Mary if successful either guarantees a touchdown or a very good chance at a touchdown. I am not saying for sure a hail mary should be tried but what I am saying is that thinking out of the box is not necessarily a bad thing.
I don't think Stig made a good decision at all with 8 seconds left trying to run out the clock by throwing it. I think it holds too much risk. As soon as I saw that formation I wanted the Coyotes to put on max pressure and they did for the most part. If the Coyotes hadn't pressured the QB the clock probably would have run out. If he would have used max protection and booted it away the clock would have just as likely run out on the punt via return or maybe rolling around too long. Even if it doesn't the chances of a return for a touchdown is a longer shot than a hail mary. If the Coyotes got the ball at the 20 it would have created a chance where a hail mary doesn't make as much sense and to throw short and try to hook and latter all the way down the field would seem to be very much a longshot.
The bottom line is that any good coach should always run through almost every scenario possible in a football game. That is the kind of thing you do in the easy chair over the summer. Stig did not seem to use logic there. Obviously the worst thing that can happen if for the Coyotes to get their hands on the ball in some fashion.
I believe a quick punt aimed to go out of bounds around the Coyote 20 should have been the Jacks goal. I think a blocked punt is not at all likely knowing all you need to do is get a quick punt off. Even if it is blocked there is a good chance it is not going to be returned all the way and the Coyotes would have still needed another play. The most likely way for the Coyotes to win is exactly what the Jacks allowed. They took a chance that they could run off 8 seconds which is actually quite a bit of time for a football play.
For me this is the order from most likely to least likely way the Coyotes could have won.
1) Hail Mary
2) Punt Return TD
3) Block Punt Return TD
4) Touchdown from their own 20 yard line with one play
I found it interesting that when the Jacks had the ball with just under 2:00 to play and many people started to leave I was telling the people around me that it is still too early for that. Unless a team can simply take a knee and doesn't have to run an actual play one should never leave a game. It was unlikely to result in a Coyote win but what is an extra 2 or 3 minutes, maybe 5 minutes to make sure a game is definitely over. I wonder how those fans are feeling and if they would even admit that they were in the parking lot or car when the Coyotes won the game. When the hail mary was over I had a lot of fans that probably though I was nuts but all it takes is one miracle finish and people will never make the same mistake again. Even when there was 8 seconds left it was definitely not over.