2021-2022 random stats stuff

[kiyoat]

I want to do a comparison of our opponent's season averages vs. when they play us to compare our defensive performance.  By the end of the season this wouldn't be neccessary because there would be enough data to average it all out.  But right now we have played such a tough schedule that our normal stats are a little broken.  Well, here goes:

opponent	PPG(rnk)	vs. Yotes	TO/game(rnk)	vs. Yotes
Oklahoma	88.0(2)	73	18.1(258)	21
S Carolina	75.3(54)	72	16.1(148)	20
Drake	78.9(24)	46	19.0(284)	22
Briar Cliff		35		25
Northwestern	68.4(124)	73	14.4(63)	17
Tex A&M	74.8(58)	58	16.6(179)	13
Pitt	68.4(124)	56(reg)	18.7(277)	17
Wich St	72.1(82)	59	16.8(196)	25
Bradley	65.0(186)	39	12.7(23)	17

So with just a couple of exceptions, we have held every team well below their season average points per game, and forced more than their season average turnovers.

Oklahoma is currently the #2 offense in the country, and we held them to 15 points below their average!

[kiyoat]

Here's another question I have about this team.  A lot has been said here about improving the offense, or getting more offensive production from the bench, or from anyone outside of the big 3.  I'd like to see what that looks like statistically, so here's a look at our top scorers, normalized by minutes. 

This is a "points per 40 minutes" ranking:

player	min/g	points/g	points/40m
A Williston	4.5	3.5	31.1
H Sjerven	27.7	14.7	21.2
C Lamb	33.2	15.4	18.6
M Guebert	5.9	2.3	15.6
L Korngable	33.8	11.5	13.6
G Larkins	16.2	3.9	9.6
N Mazurek	11.8	2.3	7.8
M Krull	32.4	5.9	7.3
R Sankey	7.1	1.3	7.3
J Ugofsky	10.2	1.4	5.5
K Watson	24.2	2.7	4.5

Lots to talk about here:

1. First, let's acknowledge that there are things affecting scoring output that make this comparison unfair in many ways.  A player that gets in the game for a short period of time has little opportunity to get into a rhythm, so that's a thing.  Who you are playing with makes a difference, like when the bench goes in at the end of a game, getting an assist from a 3rd string PG is different than the starting PG, for example.  Also the 2nd and 3rd string players might be playing against the opponent's starters or bench, depending on the game... so there are a lot of variables.

2. Putting all that aside, it looks like Aspen and Macy could potentially be great scorers for us if they can get on the floor.  I have to assume that there are reasons they are not getting minutes, possibly rebounding or defense?

3. I think we are missing Hansen a good deal.

4. Larkins's minutes might increase through the season, and I think she will have a high ceiling.  Come tournament time she will be very dangerous.

5. Krull and Watson are obviously starters for reasons other than shooting, but at some point their numbers need to improve.  For Watson she might not be a consistent arc shooter, but I'd hope her inside game develops.  Coach P mentioned in a post-game her confidence offensively needs to match her defense.  For Krull, confidence isn't a problem, but I wonder sometimes if shot selection is the biggest issue.  Lots of her layups are of the "circus shot" variety, with arm extended. (correct me if I'm wrong)

6. Although we lean on Lamb and Sjerven a good deal... why wouldn't we?  There is a reason they are playing as much as they do.  They're freaking great scorers, among other aspects of their game.  I'm thinking we can rest them more when we are playing the likes of St. Thomas, UND, Denver, etc. (Denver is really bad this year BTW)

[kiyoat]

Any surprises in the Coyote's stats so far?  (I assume you are all asking)... Why yes, thank you for asking....

We know the Yotes are really good at forcing turnovers, and not getting turnovers.  Like top-25 good.

We also know the Yotes have been really good at scoring defense.  Like top-50 good.

We also know the Yotes haven't been great at shooting efficiency % and scoring.  Like sub-250 bad.

But here are two stats you might be surprised to see (one bad and one good).






.........(this is the message-board version of clickbait......

















We are #220 in rebound margin.  We are getting out-rebounded by -1.2  (I have to assume that playing power conference teams is a big factor here, but we will have to watch this number in conference play)



Also........



We are #39 in Personal Fouls per game!  We are only committing 14.3 personals per game, which is impressive for two reasons: 

1. We have often been one of the most foul-prone teams in the conference to go along with our league-best defense.  Looks like our super-seniors are a wily bunch.  Especially Sjerven, who always draws lots of attention from our opponents.  She has been playing lights-out.  Also,

2. the schedule we have played would suggest we should have committed more fouls to compete against tough teams.  That has not been the case.  Just outstanding.

[elcoyote]

Great stuff kiyoat! Still think your calling was as an SID. As for Krull's offense, the one thing I think would improve her greatly would be developing a pull up jumper off the dribble drive like Lamb has in her arsenal. I would imagine in high school she could just power through players, but not as much in college ball. She's still just a freshman eligibility wise so there's time and I'm willing to bet the coaches are working with her on that.

[kiyoat]

Dec 16, 2021 9:20:17 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Here's another question I have about this team.  A lot has been said here about improving the offense, or getting more offensive production from the bench, or from anyone outside of the big 3.  I'd like to see what that looks like statistically, so here's a look at our top scorers, normalized by minutes. 

This is a "points per 40 minutes" ranking:

player	min/g	points/g	points/40m	1/5 PP40
A Williston	4.5	3.5	31.1	27.5
H Sjerven	27.7	14.7	21.2	21.4
C Lamb	33.2	15.4	18.6	19.3
M Guebert	5.9	2.3	15.6	15.1
L Korngable	33.8	11.5	13.6	14.4
G Larkins	16.2	3.9	9.6	11.3
------------				--------
N Mazurek	11.8	2.3	7.8	7.1
M Krull	32.4	5.9	7.3	8.2
R Sankey	7.1	1.3	7.3	9.8
J Ugofsky	10.2	1.4	5.5	8.4
K Watson	24.2	2.7	4.5	7.2
A Peplowski				6.0

I updated this list, adding a column for today's date.  The top 6 scorers per 40 minutes are in the same order, but below Larkins, the rest have all improved  and are generally in the 7 to 10 points range.