POLL: is the best available seed always the best option?

[kiyoat]

For some this might be a little presumptuous (assuming we get in the dance), but I'm curious anyway.

Some people dislike the 8/9 seed location, because it has a ceiling.  You play a top-4 team in the country in the second round.  Some really like the 12-seed for upsets.  Your answer may depend on objective.  Do we want to get that first win above everything?  Are we angling for a 2nd round upset, too?

Maybe this is a dumb poll, but I don't care.  Make your own.

Also: A 6 or 7 seed is clearly better than all of these options, but there is little controversy there.  We are also very unlikely to get a 7-seed this year.

[yote18]

I think this is the year that we want to actually be under ranked in the tourney if possible. We know we can play with almost any team out there(Oklahoma for example) but if we come in under ranked it gives us our best shot to make a run imo.

[GoYotes]

This is from a 2017 article about the men's NCAA tournament:


Odd's of making the Sweet 16 by Seed
No. 1: 86.8 (111 out of 128)
No. 8: 9.4 (12 out of 128)
No. 9: 3.9 (5 out of 128)
No. 16: 0 (0 out of 128)

No. 2: 63.2 (81 out of 128)
No. 7: 18.0 (23 out of 128)
No. 10: 18.0 (23 out of 128)
No. 15: 0.8 (1 out of 128)

No. 3: 50.8 (65 out of 128)
No. 6: 32.8 (42 out of 128)
No. 11: 14.8 (19 out of 128)
No. 14: 1.6 (2 out of 128)

No. 4: 46.1 (59 out of 128)
No. 5: 33.6 (43 out of 128)
No. 12: 15.6 (20 out of 128)
No. 13: 4.7 (6 out of 128)

[Coyote Fan]

The Coyotes need to get one win before we can start thinking about sweet 16 or beyond. I guess if we had to try to make a run I think the 11 seed would be the most favorable if the 6 or 7 seed is out of the question. Until winning the first round becomes a reality I will just take the highest seed possible for now. I don't think the Coyotes will be winning a first round game for at least the next 2 years. Almost everything went the way of the Coyotes in the OU game and they still lost at home. I think the Sooners were called for about 10 travels in that game. I think a rematch on a neutral floor put Oklahoma as a double digit winner.

[kiyoat]

Starting to warm up to the idea of being an 11-seed in a play-in game (there are actually 6 11-seeds, 4 of who play an extra "play-in" game). The play-in round is against another 11-seed, followed by playing a 6-seed.

Mo games is Mo betta.

[hoopsmom]

Personally, I would really like the 10 seed in Ames Iowa or the 11 seed in Iowa City…. We could put a lot of red in those seats!

[kiyoat]

Mar 10, 2022 8:50:16 GMT -6 hoopsmom said:

Personally, I would really like the 10 seed in Ames Iowa or the 11 seed in Iowa City…. We could put a lot of red in those seats!

Definitely.  Or if Charlie is wrong on the seeds, and 5-seed Notre Dame or 6-seed Nebraska get a 4-seed, those locations wouldn't be terrible either.

[kiyoat]

Feb 15, 2022 13:52:22 GMT -6 GoYotes said:

This is from a 2017 article about the men's NCAA tournament:


Odd's of making the Sweet 16 by Seed
No. 1: 86.8 (111 out of 128)
No. 8: 9.4 (12 out of 128)
No. 9: 3.9 (5 out of 128)
No. 16: 0 (0 out of 128)

No. 2: 63.2 (81 out of 128)
No. 7: 18.0 (23 out of 128)
No. 10: 18.0 (23 out of 128)
No. 15: 0.8 (1 out of 128)

No. 3: 50.8 (65 out of 128)
No. 6: 32.8 (42 out of 128)
No. 11: 14.8 (19 out of 128)
No. 14: 1.6 (2 out of 128)

No. 4: 46.1 (59 out of 128)
No. 5: 33.6 (43 out of 128)
No. 12: 15.6 (20 out of 128)
No. 13: 4.7 (6 out of 128)

Here's a recent article on the women's tournament odds of an upset
(they did not consider one seed away as an upset, so 9 beating 8 wouldn't count, 5 beating 4 wouldn't count, etc.).

www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2022-03-03/womens-ncaa-tournament-tips-picking-upsets-while-filling-out-your-bracket

here are some bullet points:
8.20 upset wins per tournament (all rounds)
1.00 12-seed upsets per tournament
1.37 10-seed upsets per tournament

[kiyoat]

Feb 15, 2022 10:50:19 GMT -6 yote18 said:

I think this is the year that we want to actually be under ranked in the tourney if possible. We know we can play with almost any team out there(Oklahoma for example) but if we come in under ranked it gives us our best shot to make a run imo.

Looks like you were right…

[yote18]

Mar 20, 2022 22:59:09 GMT -6 kiyoat said:

Feb 15, 2022 10:50:19 GMT -6 yote18 said:

I think this is the year that we want to actually be under ranked in the tourney if possible. We know we can play with almost any team out there(Oklahoma for example) but if we come in under ranked it gives us our best shot to make a run imo.

Looks like you were right…

Like i said, we all want to be the best seed, but right now we’re doing so much more in terms of exposure as a 10 that we wouldn’t have gotten as a 7 or 8. I feel really good about where we’re at. Being a 10 allowed ole miss to look past us, and allowed us to shock Baylor. If we can beat a 2 on their home floor then we can beat a no.3 Michigan or no.11 Villanova on neutral. It’s not an easy task we have to keep momentum but no doubt being under seeded this year has built a tremendous amount of coverage that benefits the program.