How many MVFC teams make the playoffs?

[yoteforever]

I’d like everyone to chime in and guess how many teams make the post season playoffs.

Here’s why I ask!!!!

Two weeks left in the season. Here’s how I see the standings ending if we beat North Dakota on Saturday.

SDSU 8-0 ( beating Illinois State )
NDSU 7-1 ( beating SIU and North Dakota )
Youngstown State 6-2 ( beating SIU and Misdouri State )

HERE COMES TEAMS 4-8

Illinois State 4-4 (losing to sdsu beating Western Illinois )
UND 4-4 ( losing to usd and Ndsu )
SIU 4-4 ( losing to Ndsu and Youngstown )
UNI 4-4 ( losing to usd )
USD ( beating UND and UNI )

OVERALL RECORD:

ISU 6-5 Lost to Wisconsin and beat Valpo and Eastern Illinois
UND 6-5 Lost to Nebraska. Beat Northern Arizona and Abilene Christian
SIU 5-6 Lost to SEMO and Incarnate Word. However did beat Northwestern.
UNI 5-6 Lost to Air Force and Sacramento State. Beat Utah Tech
USD 5-6 Lost to K-State and Montana. Beat Cal-Poly

USD would be 3-1 as we played all 4 of other teams
ISU would be 2-1. Only played 3. Gad easier conference schedule
SIU would be 2-2
UNI would be 1-2
UND would be 1-2

USD would have the best overall record of the 5 teams against one another. Their only loss would’ve been a 2 pointer at Illinois State.

SIU would be on 4 game skid
UNI loses to us last game in head to head
UND would be on 2 game skid. Loses to us this week
ISU hadceasier conference schedule.

USD unquestionably had toughest overall schedule and toughest conference schedule. No Western Illinois or Indiana State.

Would selection committee take 1 or 2 (5-6) record teams? Bases on strength of schedule I’d say they have to.

I’m not saying we’d get in, but if it plays out as I think it might, then we are at minimum part of the discussion. The biggest IF is USD winning the next 2 weeks. I say the motive is there.

[Yotes]

I'd guess they pick all 7+ win teams, and then one 6 win team. So probably 5 teams. It seems the MVFC gets a 6 win team (often UNI) most years.

I don't believe USD is even allowed to go to the playoffs at this point. I thought there were rules against losing teams getting at-large bids without some very extenuating circumstances and a waiver from the NCAA.

[yoteforever]

Historically the Valley puts in 5 teams. Of the 5 teams at 4-4, forgetting overall record, who would you put in? Let’s say they go with 5 teams in. The only 6-5 teams are ISU and UND. The selection committee has to rationalize how to put in UND over USD when we just would’ve beat them the week before the picks….at their place.

If it would play out like I laid it out,all I’m saying is there would have to be consideration. That’s all

I’ve never heard you have to have a winning record. Think of how many traditional FCS teams are in FBS now. That makes even more room for Valley and. Ig Sky teams. Just fun to think about it.

[yoteforever]

I just looked it up. There is no rule keeping out a team with more losses than wins. You can Google it. I think this is interesting.

[lakesbison]

NDSU & SDSU will be the only 2 I would invite if I was on the committee.

everyone else beat each other up and none will get that lucrative 7 wins.

Big fluffy will get 5 and Eastern/Southern schools fill out the rest of at larges.

[steelsd]

Nov 8, 2022 18:48:19 GMT -6 lakesbison said:

NDSU & SDSU will be the only 2 I would invite if I was on the committee.

everyone else beat each other up and none will get that lucrative 7 wins.

Big fluffy will get 5 and Eastern/Southern schools fill out the rest of at larges.

SDSU and NDSU are obvious locks.  SDSU is likely a seed even with a loss to ISUr.  The Bison have two non-gimme games that they should win, but SIU and UND still have belief in their ability to make the playoffs so will bring their best games.  Likely neither has enough though and NDSU will get a seed. 

There is a chance for 3-5 teams from the Valley:

UND I think sneaks in with a split of their last two and are definitely in if they win out.  They don't necessarily have any great wins but they don't really have any bad losses either.  They will benefit from the "Valley team that has 7 wins makes the playoffs" philosophy more than anything.

ISUr is in if they win out, otherwise they are likely out.  A sweep of their last two would get them to 7 wins and would in that scenario include a win over #1 SDSU.  That likely gets them in.

SIU could get in with a sweep in their final 2 games.  This would give them wins over NDSU and a solid win over YSU.  Anything but a sweep and they are out.  

YSU I think also needs a sweep as their resume is not great.  So if SIU beats NDSU and YSU beats MSU, their final game is a knock-out game with the winner having a chance.  But if they win out it would be hard to leave out an 8-3 MVFC team.

Everyone else is toast.

I predict UND to get their split and sneak in. Everyone else stays home.  

[elcoyote]

All in all, pretty much a classic case of the MVFC killing each other off as far as the playoff hopes are concerned. Meanwhile, as bunch of teams who wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in hell in the MVFC waltz into the playoffs.

[MD]

Kinda makes the case to make ones noncon as easy as possible....with exception of a FBS payday perhaps.

[Yote 53]

Last two posts are spot on. The talk over on AGS is 2 maybe 3 MVFC teams make the playoffs. That's BS as outside of Big Sky and CAA the rest of the playoff field wouldn't survive the MVFC and are basically just participation trophy picks.

MVFC is a meat grinder. Out of conference we should be scheduling guaranteed FCS wins.

[GoYotes]

SDSU & NDSU are the only locks to make the playoffs. Everyone else has work to do.

USD's chances of making the playoffs pretty much evaporated with the loss at YSU. However, they can still throw a wrench into UND's chances with their first ever win in the Alerus as UND goes on the road to Fargo the following weekend. If UND were to lose their last 2 games, they would finish 4-4 in conference & 6-5 overall.

The Yotes can also put the final nail in UNI's season with a win at home in the final week of the season.

I wouldn't be real surprised to see Missouri State beat YSU this weekend in Springfield along with the Salukis beating the Bison in Carbondale. A Bison loss puts their seed in jeopardy. Both upsets would make a real mess of playoff chances of the 3rd & possibly 4th team from the Valley.

[Yotes]

Nov 9, 2022 8:34:34 GMT -6 MD said:

Kinda makes the case to make ones noncon as easy as possible....with exception of a FBS payday perhaps.

Perhaps the administration is now leaning this way? Given how far in advance games can be scheduled, it has taken a while for this thinking to show up. Here's what I see on the future schedules:

2023 - Missouri, Lamar, St Thomas
2024 - Wisconsin, Lamar, Drake (source), Empty (2024 is a 12 game FCS season)
2025 - Iowa State, Empty, Empty

Lamar has rarely been successful, then Drake and St Thomas are as close to a guaranteed FCS win as you can schedule (I don't care if St Thomas is ranked right now, they lost their one scholarship game to a bad Southern Utah team by 31).

2023/2024 are shaping up exactly the way I'd like USD to schedule. I hope it isn't an anomaly.

[Yote 53]

I question why we schedule Lamar after they backed out of the second half of the home and home we had scheduled with them about 10-15 years ago. Yes, I haven't forgotten about that. That first game better be in Vermillion.

Lamar was in the Southland, left for the WAC, then bailed on the WAC and is back in the Southland. 1-8 this season staring at a 1-10 finish. Perfect FCS game to pick up.

[nccyote]

Non-con games need to be powder puff wins, there is no reason for them not to be. Schedule pioneer league teams as often as possible. As we experiences this year, scheduling a tough non-con schedule is asinine. Playoff committee has never rewarded S.O.S. so why bother. Stack up wins and then buckle up for gauntlet of the MVFC. it's the only way that makes sense.

back to the original question posed by YF:

Only 2 teams are locks:
ndsu
sdsu

if YSU takes care of business against MSU and SIU they're in.
If UND beats us they're in at no worse than 7-4
If UNI beats us next week and finishes 6-5 they're also in.
If ISUr can win their last 2 (SDSU, WIU) and finish 6-5 they are in.

Lots of ifs but 3 guaranteed and as many as 6 can make the tourney IMO. I'm a pessimist right now so my field looks like this

sdsu
ndsu
YSU
UND
UNI

USD is out no matter what but I do hope we finish with some momentum.

[geauxsioux]

Nov 8, 2022 16:41:38 GMT -6 yoteforever said:

I’d like everyone to chime in and guess how many teams make the post season playoffs.

Here’s why I ask!!!!

Two weeks left in the season. Here’s how I see the standings ending if we beat North Dakota on Saturday.

SDSU 8-0 ( beating Illinois State )
NDSU 7-1 ( beating SIU and North Dakota )
Youngstown State 6-2 ( beating SIU and Misdouri State )

HERE COMES TEAMS 4-8

Illinois State 4-4 (losing to sdsu beating Western Illinois )
UND 4-4 ( losing to usd and Ndsu )
SIU 4-4 ( losing to Ndsu and Youngstown )
UNI 4-4 ( losing to usd )
USD ( beating UND and UNI )

OVERALL RECORD:

ISU 6-5 Lost to Wisconsin and beat Valpo and Eastern Illinois
UND 6-5 Lost to Nebraska. Beat Northern Arizona and Abilene Christian
SIU 5-6 Lost to SEMO and Incarnate Word. However did beat Northwestern.
UNI 5-6 Lost to Air Force and Sacramento State. Beat Utah Tech
USD 5-6 Lost to K-State and Montana. Beat Cal-Poly

USD would be 3-1 as we played all 4 of other teams
ISU would be 2-1. Only played 3. Gad easier conference schedule
SIU would be 2-2
UNI would be 1-2
UND would be 1-2

USD would have the best overall record of the 5 teams against one another. Their only loss would’ve been a 2 pointer at Illinois State.

SIU would be on 4 game skid
UNI loses to us last game in head to head
UND would be on 2 game skid. Loses to us this week
ISU hadceasier conference schedule.

USD unquestionably had toughest overall schedule and toughest conference schedule. No Western Illinois or Indiana State.

Would selection committee take 1 or 2 (5-6) record teams? Bases on strength of schedule I’d say they have to.

I’m not saying we’d get in, but if it plays out as I think it might, then we are at minimum part of the discussion. The biggest IF is USD winning the next 2 weeks. I say the motive is there.

Don’t sell yourselves short, 5-6 is small time, you guys could for sure make the playoffs as the greatest 4-7 team of all time. Shoot for the stars!